McLaren-Honda can be 2017's dark horse

McLaren-Honda really can be the surprise package of the 2017 Formula 1 season. It's a bold claim. Some might call it daft.

McLaren is sixth in the 2016 constructors' championship with one tenth of leader Mercedes' tally. That's a huge gap in performance and one that is unlikely to be closed entirely next year, but that's not to say McLaren's rivals should not be fearful heading into 2017.

A lack of power and unreliability from Honda made the alliance's first year back together in 2015 feel like a bad dream. But hard work over the winter paid off and when this year's car hit the track in pre-season testing, there was a sense of relief, surprise even, at how things had turned around.

It completed 2054 laps over eight days, nearly double the mileage from the previous season and in two-thirds of the time. This year, its fastest lap was 1.9 seconds off the pace compared to 2.4s last year.

Then came Russia, the venue at which Jenson Button said six months earlier that he felt like a sitting duck, as deployment issues created a 28mph straightline speed deficit in places. This year, McLaren-Honda recorded its first double-points finish of the campaign at Sochi.

At the Belgian Grand Prix, the improvement was even clearer. McLaren failed to get out of Q1 in 2015, with Button's best lap 2.070s off the pace. A year later, he was "ecstatic" to get into Q3, 1.370s adrift of pole. In the 2015 race, both drivers finished out of the top 10 and a lap down. This year, Alonso scored points with seventh and crossed the line 59.445s behind the winner.

When it comes to ultimate pace, discounting Manor, McLaren-Honda has made the biggest gains from last year to this, based on a supertime worked out using the fastest single lap by each car over the year, and expressed as a percentage. The alliance has improved by 0.795%, closing the gap to Mercedes to 2.245%. There remains a way to go, but it suggests the team is on the right path.

Supertime gain from 2015 - 2016

After 14 races. Based on the fastest single lap per event by each car.

Last year, Honda was the weak link. Even the Japanese manufacturer would admit it was, courtesy of a lack of power and poor reliability. So in the knowledge that such gains to close the gap couldn't be made in the space of a year, McLaren has put a greater focus on reducing drag to compensate for a lack of downforce to compensate for the lack of power. The MP4-31 was designed with this in mind.

It ended up with a ruthlessly efficient chassis and one that can gradually exploit the power as Honda brings updates. The car has good low-speed performance and its improved form at Spa and Monza proves that McLaren is picking up high-speed performance, too.

McLaren had lost its way somewhat in the years before, fluctuating between good cars and terrible ones. But the tweaks to the engineering department that have steadily been put in place since Eric Boullier joined towards the end of 2013 are starting to pay off.

Peter Prodromou's return to the team, in the role of chief engineer, has had a big impact. A different approach was taken to the concept of the front wing, shown by the first Prodromou-influenced one tried at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in 2014.

The multi-element detailing brought McLaren closer to the concepts run by Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari. Combined with a move away from a stiff mechanical platform. this laid the foundations for more chassis improvements.

What the chassis needs is a better engine.

Honda underestimated the challenge when it returned to Formula 1. It was one year behind by joining in 2015, the second year of the current engine regulations, so was at a disadvantage in terms of mileage and development. To catch well-resourced rivals like Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault would not be easy.

This was a re-formed partnership, not a brand new one, but times had changed since Honda had last been involved in F1 in 2008. While its engineers had been away, the way race weekends worked had changed. McLaren was well-versed in that routine and Honda was not. So it took several races for Honda to get into the swing of it.

Even when it came to analysing data, it took time to overcome communication problems. But gradually, over the course of last year and into this year, everything has become more integrated. This synchronisation breeds confidence, as efficiency is improved.

The two parties have always steered clear of sustained public criticism each other in the way Red Bull and Renault did last term and that continues to be the case. Only now, there is less frustration to hide. There is no doubt McLaren remains very tough on Honda. There is unlikely to be any change to that until the alliance is winning. But the atmosphere has improved dramatically and a happier environment naturally has an impact on output.

Honda remains fourth in the pecking order of engine manufacturers, but its rate of improvement is higher. The gains made when coming from a long way back are easier to find so inevitably, that rate will slow. But Honda seems to be on the right path and is putting itself in a position where it can compete.

Alonso's belief the alliance can fight for top-five places and possibly challenge Ferrari may sound outlandish and unlikely, but the Spaniard believes the team is moving in the right direction. Honda has Renault in its sights. The key is that the Japanese outfit is learning from its mistakes and quickly working to get on top of them.

One high-level paddock source noted how Honda's approach is different to that of its rivals.

"They are doing a good job. They seem to rev their engine much higher in the gears and their electrical deployment looks to be a little bit different," he said. "They seem to be doing things a bit differently, so that's quite interesting."

Last year, ERS deployment was a huge weakness but now Button believes Honda has the best system in F1. It has achieved its target of doubling the amount of energy it can recover from the system, following winter developments and a turbo update introduced in Canada. This means it is less exposed to running out of electrical energy at the end on long straights.

With the ERS in good shape, Honda has turned it attention to the internal combustion engine. Its first in-season upgrade on that area came at Silverstone, aimed at improving combustion efficiency and power output.

It was also aimed at recovering some of the exhaust output of the engine that was sacrificed when the upgraded turbo was introduced. A further update followed at Spa, for both the turbo and V6 engine, to improve efficiency while also bringing the exhaust output of the latter back up to the pre-Canada level.

Further updates are planned - ideally for Japan - which will focus purely on the engine itself. Encouragingly, the updates brought to the track are working as expected. The drivers are reporting a better feel with the power unit and the results, in terms of lap time and points, is clear.

Honda is desperate to return to the front and is doing everything it can to do that, even if it involves taking risks. At Spa, Honda chief Yusuke Hasegawa (pictured below) took the call to send Alonso's car out in qualifying even though he knew it was a risk. Alonso had to stop in the morning session because of low oil pressure and, after adjusting it, Honda sent him out even though it could have lost another engine.

There was naturally pressure from McLaren but Hasegawa had the final say and chose to do so. Alonso failed to complete a lap and Hasegawa took the blame. Yes, it's an engine lost, but the session would have been thrown away otherwise, so why not give it a try? Hasegawa is a racer and there is no doubt dramatic improvements have been made under his stewardship since taking over from Yasuhisa Arai.

A decision made earlier this year to focus a bespoke team on 2017 was smart. With the departure of the token system from next season, this is Honda's opportunity to back its own ideas, without restrictions, and make a big step to catch its rivals.

In some ways, the change in technical regulations has come at a bad time. On both fronts - engine and chassis - McLaren-Honda was closing the gap, while the gains that leader Mercedes could make were reducing. Changing the aero and engine rules creates the possibility for the field to stretch out again.

But it also allows a well-resourced outfit to respond well. McLaren-Honda can do just that. It has been in transition but finally appears to have got its house in order. It has the foundations in develop into a championship-winning team again.

The championship next year is unlikely. But judging by McLaren-Honda's current trajectory, it should be a clear fourth as a minimum, behind Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari.

It should beat Williams and Force India, its current immediate rivals, and have the potential to be a semi-regular podium attendee.

Imagine a season akin to the one Williams enjoyed in 2014. Only this time, it is a team that has the resources and a works engine to deliver a bigger and more consistent challenge.

With that in mind, perhaps whoever is in charge of keeping the MTC trophy cabinet spotless should start to clear some space. More silverware almost certainly beckons.