Karun Chandhok's 10 big questions facing F1 2023

Heading into the second season of Formula 1's ground effect regulations, we have a slightly better idea of what to expect from the campaign ahead than at this point one year ago, before porpoising emerged on the collective consciousness.  

But as ever in grand prix racing, there are plenty of questions that have to be answered after a winter of intrigue which has seen high profile driver changes, three rookies enter the ground, and a fascinating round of team principal musical chairs.  

In the eighth edition of his annual 'big questions' feature, Sky F1 pundit Karun Chandhok checks in for his verdict on the topics to follow this year.

1. Can anyone stop Max Verstappen and Red Bull? 

Verstappen was unstoppable in 2022 - will we get a properly sustained title fight this term?

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

It’s going to be very hard to look beyond Max Verstappen and Red Bull as the favourites heading into 2023. As a driver, I thought that Max raised his game in 2022 to a new level where there really was a calmness and a methodical approach we hadn’t seen before. From when I saw him race in F3, it was abundantly clear that this guy is one of the most gifted drivers on the planet, but he’s now added experience and the confidence that the world title brings.

The 2022 Max knew that he didn’t need to win the race on the opening lap. He knew that if he didn’t get pole, it didn’t really matter, as long as he got the car in the right window to maximise his race performance. These are all things that I feel Lewis Hamilton uncovered and unlocked around 2017 when he just moved to another level, and Max has done the same.

PLUS: How Verstappen and Red Bull went from disaster to record breakers in F1 2022

Bizarrely, Red Bull and Max have somehow managed to make themselves more unpopular with the fans, especially in the UK, over the past two years despite an amazing run of success on track. I don’t know if they really care about that, but what they will care about is the reduced windtunnel time that the cost cap breach has brought them.

Success breeds success in F1. Having a dominant car last year allowed them to switch focus to 2023 early on and they’re starting from a higher performance threshold anyway

The fizzy drinks giant sold over 11 billion cans last year, so a $7million fine is a mere correction on a monthly P&L, but the availability of 17% less tunnel time than Mercedes will be a concern for ongoing development in the second half of the year and into 2024 – the base concept and architecture of the RB19 will have been done well before this became an issue.

PLUS: How much will Red Bull's aero testing penalty really hurt?

Success breeds success in F1. Having a dominant car last year allowed them to switch focus to 2023 early on and they’re starting from a higher performance threshold anyway. The technical superteam of Adrian Newey, Rob Marshall, Pierre Wache and Paul Monaghan remains firmly in place, as hungry as ever, and will be hard to beat.

2. Will Fred Vasseur be able to solve Ferrari’s problems? 

Vasseur takes over the helm at Ferrari with a reputation as a taskmaster which could be just what the Italian team needs

Photo by: Ferrari

Let’s get some perspective on Ferrari’s 2022 season. In 2020, fresh off the back of the fuel-flow saga, the team finished a dreadful sixth, 1.43% off the fastest car on average in qualifying. This improved to third in 2021 but still 0.73% off in qualifying. In 2022, Ferrari had the fastest car on average over one lap, 0.04% ahead of Red Bull, although admittedly it suffered with higher tyre wear in the races.

PLUS: How Ferrari missed its big chance to end a painful F1 wait in 2022

In terms of pure performance gains, to achieve what Ferrari did in the past two years is actually very impressive. The design team on the chassis side as well as the power-unit team should be complimented on the work done to produce a car concept that looked completely different to anyone else’s (apart from their technical partner Haas!) and worked very effectively from the start of the new regulations. Reliability was a weakness on the power unit side but, as the old adage goes, it’s easier to make a quick car reliable, rather than a slow and reliable one to be quick!

The strategy team and drivers both made a variety of errors in 2022, and the development curve also tailed off after the summer break relative to their rivals, all of which left the Italian giant looking over its shoulders at Mercedes rather than forward at Red Bull at the end of the season.

Mattia Binotto tried very hard to create a no-blame culture at the team, which is great, but you have to dovetail that with leadership that pushes through the changes required when weaknesses are evident. I do wonder if there could have been a place for Mattia to still lead the technical team alongside Fred Vasseur, in the same way as Ross Brawn and Jean Todt worked so closely together to drag Ferrari out of the doldrums.

Vasseur is a smart operator with a very good racing brain, but he is going to be new to Maranello. Ferrari is a unique team, based outside the motorsport valley of the UK, and having someone like Binotto with historical knowledge of the deep-rooted culture within the team would have been useful if they could work together.

Being the team boss of Ferrari is the most high-pressured job in F1. I’ve known Fred for a long time, since his GP2 days, and he’s a pretty unflappable character, which is exactly what is needed. He’s a tough taskmaster too, all of which points towards him being the new Todt – and that decision turned out pretty well for Ferrari, although it did take six years before it won a constructors’ title under his leadership. I’m not sure that the tifosi would be prepared to wait that long.

PLUS: Why Vasseur relishes 'feeling the pressure' as Ferrari's F1 boss

The relationship between Fred and the board and ultimate owners of Ferrari is going to be vital. Luca di Montezemolo proved to be a vital buffer between Todt and owners through the 1990s whereas that level of protection no longer seems to exist and this will be an added challenge for Vasseur.

3. Lewis Hamilton versus George Russell: who will lead Mercedes’ challenge? 

How will the Russell versus Hamilton battle evolve in their second year together as team-mates?

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Mercedes once again heads into the season with, in my opinion, the best driver line-up on the grid. It has two race winners on its books, and the inner harmony that it lacked during the Nico Rosberg/Lewis Hamilton era. Will that peace last if the car is a title challenger? That’s the question that makes this the head-to-head battle I’m most excited to see this year.

George Russell was one of the stars of last season. He started the year stronger than Lewis, but what impressed me more was the final part of the season. From Barcelona onwards, Hamilton raised his game and, on the surface, in the qualifying sessions from Spa onwards he beat George 7-2. But their average gap in the dry sessions was only 0.057s.

PLUS: How Russell can make history again in F1 2023

It would have been so easy for a driver in their first season in a top team, against statistically the greatest qualifier of all time, to let their head drop. George did very well to dig deep and drag himself out of a hole to outqualify Lewis in two out of the final three races, including the crucial one in Brazil that set him up for victory.

I really hope that Mercedes produces a car that’s a match for the Red Bull. We were denied an epic Ayrton Senna-versus-Michael Schumacher title rivalry in 1994, and I’ve often pointed to 2021 being a recreation of that

But make no mistake, Lewis is going to be hungry for that eighth title. The races he drove last year in Canada, Holland and Austin in particular were sublime. They were a reminder that when it comes to consistently brilliant race performances, Lewis, Max Verstappen and Fernando Alonso are truly the ones in the A+ league.

PLUS: Assessing Hamilton's remarkable decade as a Mercedes F1 driver

It may sound contradictory to say this but, from a neutral’s perspective, I really hope that Mercedes produces a car that’s a match for the Red Bull. We were denied an epic Ayrton Senna-versus-Michael Schumacher title rivalry in 1994, and I’ve often pointed to 2021 being a recreation of that. Verstappen versus Hamilton in the next few years, before inevitably the Brit calls time on his career, is something that we all want to see. Throw a hungry and supremely confident Russell into the mix and it will be box office gold.

4. Will McLaren improve enough to keep hold of Lando Norris? 

McLaren needs to make a step forward this year to convince Norris it remains the right place for him to achieve his ambitions

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

I’ve lost track of the number of times when McLaren engineers told me last year that they expect to be fifth in 2023, because their new windtunnel won’t come into use before the 2024 car at the earliest. They seem to have privately accepted that they’re in a bit of a holding pattern for this year.

Lando Norris has been one of the standout drivers in the past three years, with some great performances while making no real errors. But seeing his friends – and drivers who he must see as equals – George Russell and Carlos Sainz land deals with top teams and join F1’s winners’ club would inevitably sting a little.

PLUS: How Norris pulled off the toughest race drive of F1 2022

The popular Brit often talks about his irritation at people questioning his long-term commitment to McLaren at a time when it’s not a title-contending team. I must admit, I was one of those irritating people who was wondering about it, because I think it could limit his movement if a seat opens up at Red Bull or Mercedes. It’s a brilliant bit of negotiation on McLaren’s behalf by Zak Brown to take him off the market.

But the reality is that I’m sure Lando doesn’t want to play second fiddle to Max Verstappen at Red Bull, and Ferrari has a solid driver pairing locked in so, unless Lewis Hamilton leaves Mercedes, being at McLaren is his best option for now. If and when Lewis does go, McLaren will have to fight hard to keep Lando because he must be at the top of the Mercedes shopping list. The bids to buy Lando out of his deal will come flying from Brackley to Woking quicker than the golf ball leaving his club!

PLUS: How can McLaren keep hold of Norris?

5. Could anyone from the midfield battle the big three? 

Chandhok believes Aston Martin could make a step forward in the second season of F1's ground effect rules after good progress towards the end of 2022

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

In 2022, as a season average, McLaren and Alpine ended the year 1.27% and 1.37% respectively off the pacesetting Ferrari in qualifying. In F1 terms, that’s a sizeable margin and meant that they generally ended up on the fourth row of the grid.

PLUS: How Alpine won the war to be F1's best of the rest in 2022

But Ferrari managed to gain 0.7% between seasons for two years in a row, and leapfrogged from the midfield battle in 2020 to the front in 2022. This shows that progress is possible with the right brainpower and resources.

Lawrence Stroll and Martin Whitmarsh have been on an aggressive recruitment drive for the past two years and the fruits of that expansion should be evident this year

Alpine had a poor run of reliability last year but the car itself seemed fast. Its development through the season seemed particularly good and, towards the end, the blue cars were consistently outpacing McLaren’s Lando Norris.

The midfield team to watch in my opinion is Aston Martin. The squad really seemed out of position last season in comparison to where I expected it to be. It started the year with one concept and controversially managed to pivot to a ‘Red Bull concept’ quite early on in the season, which is no small task.

Lawrence Stroll and Martin Whitmarsh have been on an aggressive recruitment drive for the past two years and the fruits of that expansion should be evident this year. They seemed to make some decent steps forward towards the end of last season in terms of pace, so could be a real threat to leapfrog ahead of Alpine and McLaren.

6. Is the Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin partnership a match made in heaven or hell? 

Alonso is making a fresh start at Aston Martin - but will his latest fresh start yield the results he craves?

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images

The dynamic between Fernando Alonso and the Strolls is going to be intriguing. On the one hand, the Spaniard has very clear and simple objectives. He craves on-track success more than anything else, and loves being in a competitive battle all day, every day. Give him the tools and support, and he will deliver at every apex of every lap.

PLUS: Why the perception of Alonso's Aston Martin switch has transformed

There are very few drivers in the history of Formula 1 with the racing brain that Fernando has. I often try to listen to his radio when sitting at our race control desk in the Sky F1 commentary box, because his awareness of how the race will unfold is just incredible. He not only thinks about his strategy, but he’s also telling the team about what strategy he thinks the five cars around him will do!

On the flipside, he’s clearly a very complex character who enjoys being in control of situations. Last year’s contractual battle with Alpine was a perfect example of how he just completely took control of the midfield driver market, made the moves that worked for him, and completely blindsided everyone as they were switching off for their summer break.

Fernando will push a team hard because he seeks performance and perfection. As a team, I think Aston Martin is a dark horse to lead the midfield battle. If it doesn’t deliver, then expect some fireworks.

7. Will Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon be good for Alpine? 

Alpine is pinning its hopes on an all-French lineup, but will Gasly and Ocon work well together?

Photo by: Alpine

The people who had the worst summer break last year were Laurent Rossi and Alpine’s legal department. They publicly stated that retaining Fernando Alonso was their priority, and when they couldn’t get him they wanted Oscar Piastri, but they’ve ended up with their third choice: Pierre Gasly.

The whole contractual saga was a PR nightmare that doesn’t really befit a team representing the group that is the third largest car maker on the planet. Mind you, the group has dealt with the Carlos Ghosn saga, so I suppose a bit of F1 contract battling is relatively minor.

The noises coming from Enstone are that they’ve had their best winter for a long time in terms of planning and car build hitting the deadlines

Going to Alpine is a good deal for Gasly. He was getting stagnant at AlphaTauri and the change should kickstart some fresh motivation into him. He and Esteban Ocon seem to be hitting it off fine for now, but it will be interesting to see if they can put their past personal troubles behind them when we get on track, as their historical dislike for each other was made pretty public last year.

PLUS: The intent revealed in Gasly's Alpine switch that his F1 rivals should heed

The noises coming from Enstone are that they’ve had their best winter for a long time in terms of planning and car build hitting the deadlines. The power unit last year was a completely new concept, a challenge that shouldn’t be underestimated, and it delivered very strong performance albeit with weaknesses in reliability. Alpine should be the favourite of the midfield teams, but will it be able to finally drag itself into at least the occasional battle for the top three? As a major manufacturer team, that must be the target.

8. Which of the rookies will shine brightest? 

Can Sargeant make a major splash at Williams?

Photo by: Williams

There hasn’t been a rookie with as much expectation as Oscar Piastri carries on his shoulders since Lewis Hamilton. The young Aussie has effectively ended the career of one of the most popular drivers in recent F1 history, had two big teams fighting over his services with bosses from other top squads wading into the debate – and he’s not completed a single lap in a grand prix.

From everything the engineers who have worked with Oscar in the junior formulas tell me, he is absolutely the real deal. The test team at Alpine was hugely impressed with him too, but none of that matters now. What matters is that he’s able to hold his own against Lando Norris.

PLUS: What made Oscar Piastri is F1's most sought-after rookie of 2023

This is going to be a tall order and, I have to admit, I do admire what Oscar has done by taking the brave move of walking into a team Lando knows very well, and a car that clearly is philosophically unique to get on top of. Daniel Ricciardo went from an incredible run of form at Renault to struggling to adapt to the McLaren, but that hasn’t scared off his younger compatriot.

It seems odd to classify Nyck de Vries as a rookie because it feels like he’s been around for so long. Nyck is a very fast driver and has long deserved his shot in F1, so I’m pleased that it’s worked out for him with AlphaTauri. Yuki Tsunoda will have to raise his game since he is now the experienced one in the team and, with the impressive Ayumu Iwasa waiting in the wings in F2, beating Nyck is a must. For de Vries, the pressure is off and he can allow his talent to deliver to its full potential.

PLUS: How F1's new determined Dutchman got his long-awaited break

Logan Sargeant is a good example of how and why timing is critical to getting your break in F1. As the top American driver in European junior formula racing, with two American-owned teams and three US races lined up for 2023, he couldn’t have timed it better. Sargeant had a solid season in F2, but I do wonder whether Williams would have benefited from an experienced driver line-up like Haas has.

There’s a lot of restructuring going and, while Daniel Ricciardo wasn’t interested, people such as Mick Schumacher and Stoffel Vandoorne would probably have been solid short-term solutions as the team stabilises. It’s a great chance for Sargeant to learn the ropes in F1 away from the limelight, and Alex Albon will be a good benchmark for him.

9. Can James Vowles turn Williams around? 

Vowles is accustomed to success with Mercedes - but will that translate to Williams?

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

F1 teams are like big tankers. It’s hard to turn things around quickly, especially at a team that seems to have taken a step backwards on track over the past year and also changed several key people.

I know Williams’s new team principal James Vowles, who has arrived from Mercedes, reasonably well and he’s a very smart guy. He’s also an extremely hard worker with a strong emphasis on a methodical and structured work ethic. From a technical perspective he will certainly be able to identify areas of weakness compared to the mighty Brackley operation he’s been a part of for 20 years. He’s also seen the tough times during the BAR and Honda years, which will be a valuable attribute to getting the owners at Dorilton to appreciate what they need to do to turn things around.

The key I think is how many senior technical people James can poach from other top teams, and how quickly

The challenge for James is that Williams is a team where the workforce’s motivation has taken a massive beating in recent years. As I write this, there still isn’t a technical director. Changing that person is a big enough ask – changing that role twice in five years is quite destabilising for the whole team.

PLUS: Why the new Williams boss shouldn’t avoid ‘Mercedes B-team’ comparisons

The key I think is how many senior technical people James can poach from other top teams, and how quickly. He’s obviously done a great job in getting released from Mercedes without any long period of gardening leave, something quite extraordinary in modern F1, where anywhere between six to 18 months has become the norm.

Yes, F1 is a technologically led sport, but Dorilton to its credit has invested heavily in upgrading the factory. What the team now needs is the right brainpower to maximise the tools, because ultimately creating a successful F1 car is about using the creativity of the designers’ and aerodynamicists’ brains with the underlying principles of physics and mathematics.

10. What’s good and what’s not about the 2023 calendar? 

Chandhok isn't overly enthused by F1's return to Qatar, which has traditionally been a bike circuit

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

In my ‘Big Questions’ piece last year, I said I believed 20 races to be a good number, and 12 months later I’m even more sure of that. The burnout rate for people working in the paddock is rising, with 24 weeks of the year spent on the road (including testing).

On the one hand, you have the old-school paddock lifers who argue that ‘back in their day’ you spent 35 weeks per year travelling for testing and races, so people should stop whining. All that does is prevent others who want to spend more time at home with their families from speaking up. And you’ve got a whole load of people who are under pressure from their families because of the amount of time they’re on the road and therefore end up begrudgingly doing the whole season.

The budget cap means that it’s harder for the teams to rotate staff around, and I really do wonder whether teams and the sport in general need to consider the mental health of their staff a bit more. By creating some provision within the cap to allow teams an extra allowance, specifically to replace those who have done at least 20 races, you could just ease some of the pressure.

The big story this year is, of course, the new race in Las Vegas. The level of excitement is off the chart already, and the prospect of a Saturday night race on the famous Vegas strip is something that will draw in eyeballs across the planet. Miami and Austin are both hugely successful events for F1, and it does seem that the series has finally cracked the world’s largest consumer market.

PLUS: How Vegas went from byword for F1 indifference to grand Liberty coup

F1’s return to Qatar is something I’m less excited about because I don’t think the circuit is really suited for grand prix car racing. The fast, flowing track is great for MotoGP and probably good fun to drive around, but it’s far from ideal when it comes to creating good overtaking and racing.

Chandhok believes teams could do a better job of helping the mental health of its staff

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images