What Vettel's surprise means for the F1 driver market

The news Sebastian Vettel had chosen to re-sign for Ferrari was not a surprise. But the fact it was for three years, tying him to Ferrari until the end of 2020, certainly was.

Come the end of 2018, both Mercedes seats are potentially on offer, with Lewis Hamilton's deal having just one year remaining and the team yet to confirm who will be alongside him next year. Daniel Ricciardo's contract at Red Bull will be up too, while there will also be opportunities at McLaren and Renault.

Vettel reckons it was a "no-brainer" to stay with Ferrari. "We haven't yet achieved what we what we wanted to achieve but things are looking pretty good," he said.

There will likely be performance clauses in the deal that will allow Vettel to escape if Ferrari doesn't produce a worthy car. But if Ferrari remains capable of challenging at the front, Vettel is staying put until at least the end of 2020, when the teams' current bilateral agreements end ahead of a new era of rules and F1 organisation in '21.

Even then Vettel will only be 33, meaning an extension of his Ferrari deal or a move elsewhere would still be on the cards.

Vettel staying at Ferrari reduces the chances of Ricciardo moving there for 2019 as it is unlikely Vettel will want a driver who beat him at his final year at Red Bull alongside him.

That opens the door for Charles Leclerc, who is expected to make his F1 debut with Sauber next year. A strong performance there, backing up his impressive form in Formula 2 this year, would put the 19-year-old in a good position to replace Kimi Raikkonen, who signed a one-year deal to stay on next year, for 2019.

Ferrari does not traditionally take such young and inexperienced drivers. The only driver under the age of 27 to have driven for the Scuderia in the last 25 years was Felipe Massa, who was 24 when he got his Ferrari seat in 2006. Ferrari's current line-up of Raikkonen, 37, and Vettel, 30, is one of the oldest on the grid.

"It's a no-brainer as it stands for next year to continue with Valtteri" Toto Wolff

But with Leclerc, providing he performs as is expected at Sauber, it will likely make an exception as it plots its long-term future and a life after Vettel. This will reduce the chances of Ricciardo, Max Verstappen, Sergio Perez or Romain Grosjean, who have all previously been linked with a move to Ferrari, joining the Scuderia in the short term.

Come the end of 2018, Mercedes could be an option for Ricciardo, should he require an exit from Red Bull. That would create an opening for Carlos Sainz Jr, who is staying within the Red Bull family having signed a deal to race for Toro Rosso next season. The other part of Red Bull's insurance policy, should Ricciardo and/or Verstappen leave, is Daniil Kvyat, who is expected to be retained by Toro Rosso next year.

Given the season Verstappen is having, him staying at Red Bull in the long-term now looks uncertain. His deal ostensibly keeps him at the team until at least the end of 2019. But after his sixth retirement in 12 races at Spa, Verstappen said of his future: "I don't know, if it continues like this - not long. We need to talk."

Valtteri Bottas looks set to stay at Mercedes next year, but it remains unclear for how long. "It's a no-brainer as it stands for next year to continue with Valtteri," said Mercedes motorsport boss Toto Wolff.

Bottas will want a long-term deal, but Mercedes will be keen to keep its options open, given Ricciardo could be available at the end of next year. A one-year deal with Bottas, with an option to retain him for 2019, seems the likely outcome. That would give Mercedes cover if Hamilton decides he does not want to extend his stay beyond his deal that runs out at the end of next year.

The reality is Alonso's options are limited for 2018

According to Wolff, it looks like we will have to wait until the end of the season to get any clarity over Hamilton's plans. "This is not a topic we want to take now over the last remaining races of the season," he said. "It's a tense last third of the year and we'll get that over the line and pick up a discussion."

With the top three teams full up, the next key piece of the puzzle is Fernando Alonso. The 2005 and '06 world champion is furious with Honda's unreliability this season and while he has spoken of wanting to put McLaren on top of the pile in the future, he does not want that future to include Honda.

Both McLaren and Honda are working behind the scenes to find a resolution, with McLaren trying to source Renault power for next year. Until its engine situation has been sorted, Alonso's future remains unclear.

"We've had three tough seasons so far but McLaren is one of the best teams in the world and I would be happy to keep working with them, but we need to see how things evolve in the next couple of weeks," he said.

Alonso says he has been approached by other teams and believes his "stock value has never been as high as now seeing the offers that I have". But the reality is that his options are limited.

He was linked with Williams, but sources suggest there is little chance of that happening, while a move back to Renault - where he raced from 2003-06 and again in 2008-09 - is unlikely, too, with its managing director Cyril Abiteboul saying his team would not be ready to meet Alonso's expectations in 2018 and doesn't want to risk 'frustrating' him.

Alonso says he'll make his decision in the next month. At this stage, it looks like it will be McLaren - alongside Stoffel Vandoorne who was confirmed for 2018 ahead of Spa - or nothing. It is possible he could do a year in IndyCar, particularly as there is potentially a seat open at his Indianapolis 500 squad Andretti Autosport, and then return to F1 in '19. Or he can stay for next year and see how things go before deciding on his next step. By then Renault may have a car that it feels meets Alonso's expectations.

Haas has its line-up sorted for 2018, with Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen on multi-year deals but beyond that, there could be change. Grosjean is keen on making the move to Ferrari.

He has also said he would eventually like to return to Enstone and compete for Renault. If he moves on, and Magnussen continues to meet his bosses' expectations, Haas could draft in a Ferrari junior, perhaps promoting Leclerc from Sauber or Antonio Giovinazzi, for 2019.

Renault will be a sought-after team that year if it continues its current trajectory. After a difficult first season back last term, as it had anticipated, Renault has made great strides and now has the fourth fastest car on the grid. If it continues on that path, podiums - and maybe the potential to challenge for wins - could be on the cards in 2019. Having so far played a key role in Renault's rejuvenation, Nico Hulkenberg will likely want to reap the rewards in 2019 and, as it stands, it's unlikely the team will want anything different.

The identity of his team-mate next year and beyond, though, is less certain. Renault has a list of drivers it is considering for 2018 for the seat currently occupied by Jolyon Palmer. Sainz is believed to be top of its pile, with Esteban Ocon a close second. But both have contracts, with Toro Rosso/Red Bull and Force India respectively, and money would need to change hands to extricate them from those deals.

That said, come the end of 2018, when Red Bull has an idea about whether Ricciardo will stay, it may be more open to let Sainz go for the right price, therefore opening the door for him to join Renault.

Sergio Perez is also in the frame, as he was for this year, while Renault is continuing to evaluate whether a return for Robert Kubica is viable. Whoever it signs, it will likely want to keep the deal to one year with options, as a number of top-line drivers could become available.

If Perez leaves Force India for Renault, it's likely Mercedes will try to place Pascal Wehrlein into the team alongside Ocon, given he will need a seat as Sauber is set to draft in Leclerc and retain Marcus Ericsson, who has links to the team's Swedish backers, next year. That will give Mercedes a chance to evaluate both juniors more closely and help decide which will get priority when an opportunity to graduate to the works team becomes available.

Williams is in a bit of a quandary; Stroll is on a multi-year deal, but his team-mate next year ideally needs to be over 25 for commercial reasons

If Leclerc stars at Sauber, there's a strong chance he'll be promoted to the Ferrari works team or step up to Haas. That would open up a Sauber seat in 2019 that will likely be taken by another Ferrari junior. If Giovinazzi misses out at Haas, he would be a prime candidate.

For Ericsson, staying with Sauber in 2019 would stretch his tenure there to five seasons - something that he will be keen to avoid if the team continues to struggle. But it may well be his only option if he wants to stay in F1.

Williams is in a bit of a quandary regarding its line-up for 2018 and beyond. Lance Stroll has a multi-year deal, so will occupy one of the seats next year, but whether he stays beyond that will depend very much on his form, his billionaire father Lawrence's patience and the team's need for the lucrative commercial package his brings.

The other driver next year ideally needs to be over the age of 25 to satisfy commitments to title sponsor Martini, although it is believed there may be some wriggle room on that condition of the deal.

That would allow Wehrlein to become an option through his Mercedes backing. If he delivers, keeping him on at Williams for 2019 would be in Mercedes' interests, ahead of a possible promotion to the works team come '20.

Perez is also on the Williams shortlist. His commercial backers would be useful, but clashes with other sponsors would need ironing out. Perez's stock has risen since leaving McLaren and his experience would be useful to Williams, alongside Stroll, next year and beyond.

The team could also retain Felipe Massa for another season. He has scored 27 of Williams's 45 points this year, and finished in the top 10 in the last three races he has contested. His supertime - a driver's fastest lap from any session over the weekend for each of the first 12 races converted to a percentage with 100% representing the outright fastest - is 102.749%, 0.782% clear of team-mate Stroll. He is loved by the team and a known quantity. But should he sign again, it would very likely be a one-year holding deal while Williams works out its longer-term strategy regarding Stroll.

While the top seats are largely sorted for next year, there is a lot still to be decided further down the field. Only once the McLaren-Honda-Alonso situation is sorted, Perez chooses his destination and Renault finds a partner for Hulkenberg can the other pieces of the puzzle fall into place.

But each deal will be with 2019 and beyond firmly in mind, particularly as Vettel's shock long-term commitment means a top-line driver and a top-line seat has been taken out of the equation for the next three years.