Has Mercedes already met its match? Miami F1's complicated form book explained

Following a dominant start to the 2026 Formula 1 season, Mercedes lost its first competitive outing to an upgraded McLaren car in Miami sprint qualifying.

At the fourth round of the year, Norris took pole for Saturday's 19-lap sprint in what turned into a single-lap shootout, the world champion's 1m27.869s just over two tenths clear of Mercedes' championship leader Kimi Antonelli. Oscar Piastri was third to confirm McLaren's rapid progress, while the second Mercedes of George Russell only managed sixth, six tenths behind Norris.

Out of sequence

On the surface, Mercedes' vulnerability in Miami in and of itself didn't come as a big surprise to the Brackley squad, since it is out of sync with its rivals regarding its upgrade strategy. Both McLaren and Ferrari earmarked the Florida event as round one of 2026's fierce development battle, rolling out a full sheet of aerodynamic upgrades.

McLaren has previous for bringing fortune-changing upgrades to Florida, which has become somewhat of a hallowed ground for the papaya squad and for Norris, who clinched his maiden grand prix win there in 2024 after another impressive mid-season McLaren package.

Meanwhile, Mercedes only made very minor tweaks to the front drum and its tailpipe, keeping its main upgrades for the next round in Montreal and beyond. "We are working as fast as possible, and our package will arrive in Canada rather than here," Mercedes' deputy team principal Bradley Lord told Sky Germany. "We do have some parts here, so the expectation was that everything would close up a bit, and that's exactly how it looks."

Speaking before the weekend, Russell acknowledged the field "will slowly bunch up", and there had already been signs in Japan, in the form of Piastri's impressive race pace, that McLaren certainly wasn't miles away. But Russell wasn't expecting any drastic changes to the form table so quickly either.

“Pretty surprising how big a jump McLaren and Ferrari have made, so that's pretty damn impressive. We knew they'd probably close the gap but they've been quicker than us,” Russell said on Saturday evening.

A messy afternoon

But while McLaren executed a clean qualifying session with both cars, even if Piastri felt he left time on the table in SQ3, Mercedes went through a much messier qualifying session for both cars. Antonelli endured a tricky 90-minute practice session, which was cut short by a power unit issue, having exclusively used the medium tyres that were also mandatory for the first two sprint qualifying sessions.

On the final SQ3 lap on soft Pirelli rubber, the Italian came alive and salvaged a front row start. But both he and Russell also battled tyre overheating, having not been able to bring the softs into the right working window as they bookended a single sequence of flying laps.

"It was a pretty messy session," Antonelli said. "I struggled a lot with the car on the medium. I couldn't get a good lap in, and then on soft all of a sudden the car became more alive. I felt more comfortable. Of course, it was a shame not to try the soft in FP1, but I think there was a little bit left on the table."

Additionally, Mercedes feels like it got its energy deployment wrong compared with McLaren, which is a twist of irony since that is the area where its customer team was on the back foot in the early races of 2026. That was apparent at the start of the lap, where according to the GPS data Norris appeared to deploy more energy through the Turn 3 right-hander, immediately establishing a four-tenth lead that the Mercedes cars never managed to recover.

The speed traces show the Silver Arrows had a slight edge on top speed compared to the McLarens, but nowhere near enough to compensate for the first sector time loss.

"We know that on race pace we are stronger, but in terms of qualifying, there's still some work to be done." Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images

Ferrari similarly appeared to lose out as the field moved from the medium tyres to the softs in SQ3. In fourth, Charles Leclerc slipped 0.370s to Norris. "We've struggled with tyres," Leclerc said. "The mediums were working very well. On the soft, it wasn't a nice feeling, so we've got to look at it. We know that on race pace we are stronger, but in terms of qualifying, there's still some work to be done."

After being in the hurt locker with a woeful balance on the RB22, a huge aerodynamic overhaul allowed Max Verstappen to take fifth for Red Bull, which the Dutchman hailed as a positive step despite still being out of contention compared to the top three teams. "It feels more together," the four-time world champion said. "Of course, there are still things that we are working on. But it's been a really positive step for us.

"The last few races we were over a second behind. I would say we have almost halved that gap now, so that's positive. We're still very weak in the first sector, which is mainly high speed. So we know that we need to work on that."

But McLaren isn't done yet

With parc ferme re-opening after Saturday's sprint, Mercedes may well rectify its woes into grand prix qualifying, and the overtaking opportunities provided by the 2026 regulations - artificial or not - mean grid positions aren't as critical as they used to be.

Regardless of how the rest of the Miami weekend unfolds, though, the 2026 development race is only just starting and a lot of attention will be on how Mercedes can respond in Canada. But as explained by McLaren chief Andrea Stella, the Woking squad has also kept a list of upgrades back for the Montreal weekend. Autosport understands McLaren's second upgrade package is not quite as big as its Miami revamp, but it is still significant.

With the anomaly that is the Monaco Grand Prix weekend following the Canadian race, perhaps late June's Barcelona round will be the first genuine indicator of where everyone stacks up at this stage of the season.

Suggesting that Mercedes' advantage is definitely gone, after one compromised qualifying session, is most certainly premature. But there are growing indications that it won't get its own way in 2026.