Why Williams now holds the power in Formula 1 silly season

After months of intrigue over who will partner Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes next year, we appear to be moving into the next chapter of Formula 1’s silly season.

Mercedes may not have announced anything, but with George Russell saying he knows where he’ll be racing next year, Valtteri Bottas saying he’s eager for a multi-year deal, and Alfa Romeo sorting a replacement for the retiring Kimi Raikkonen, the puzzle pieces are falling into place.

The rest of the market is also starting to move, surrounding one driver who is looking for a long-awaited F1 breakthrough, and another who is poised to make a comeback after a year on the sidelines. And right now, it is Williams - F1’s basement team for the past three seasons - that holds the power in the driver market.

The impact of the change in ownership at Williams has been evident this year. Under new F1 boss Jost Capito and with Dorilton’s name above the door, concerns about the future have been eased, allowing the team to flourish again. Two wild weekends in Hungary and Spa have practically secured P8 in the constructors’ for the British squad, allowing it to turn attention to the next year.

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Capito has been saying for some time that Williams would be in no rush to make any decision on its driver line-up, and that it had become one of the most attractive seats on the grid for drivers trying to find a drive. With the cash now behind the team and momentum firmly on the upswing, it wouldn’t be a last resort for drivers trying to find a seat.

Williams and Alfa Romeo would always be the two teams to watch once the moves became clear for Russell and Bottas. But it now their plans are firmly intertwined as Alexander Albon and Nyck de Vries both look for landing spots on the grid.

Nicholas Latifi, Williams FW43B, battles with Kimi Raikkonen, Alfa Romeo Racing C41

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

Red Bull F1 chief Christian Horner confirmed last week at Spa that, with Sergio Perez getting another year at the senior team, his focus was now on finding somewhere for Albon. With Red Bull’s sister team, AlphaTauri, set to continue with Pierre Gasly and Yuki Tsunoda for next year, Alfa Romeo and Williams were the two only places Albon could seemingly go.

The same was true for de Vries, someone who only properly emerged on the F1 radar as a realistic candidate for a drive in the last couple of months. De Vries won the Formula 2 title in 2019 and took up a factory drive with Mercedes in Formula E, where he became the series’ first world champion last month. His only experience testing F1 machinery came last year in Abu Dhabi, when he took part in the young drivers’ test with Mercedes.

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But both are now angling to race for Williams next year, taking a seat alongside Nicholas Latifi, who, while yet to be confirmed, is understood to be staying for a third season in 2022. Horner said on Friday that Williams was the “preference” for Albon next year, but that he feared Mercedes may block a move, even going as far as saying that the Anglo-Thai driver had received “about four phone calls telling him not to go there from the team next door”.

There is plenty of time to see what Red Bull and Mercedes can put on the table to get their driver in that seat. It’s the kind of luxury that Williams has not known for many, many years

Toto Wolff denied Mercedes had moved to dissuade Albon from taking the Williams seat on Saturday.

“Alex Albon is in regular contact with an ex-mentor of mine, Gwen Lagrue, who is running our Mercedes junior programme,” Wolff said. “They were discussing with James Vowles, our head of strategy, the opportunities for next year.

“I don’t think he was told to do or not do anything, it was just exploring the opportunities for Alex and for Nyck in an amicable way, between Alex and the group.”

But Wolff did acknowledge it would be “tricky” for Albon to race using a Mercedes power unit so long as he retained his links to Red Bull.

“[We are] happy to work with him, as long as they let him free from his Red Bull contract,” Wolff said. “And on the other side, we are supporting Nyck de Vries, obviously, and he is in talks with Williams to get the seat there. So there’s quite some balls in the air.”

Nicholas Latifi, Williams FW43, battles with Alex Albon, Red Bull Racing RB16

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

With the technical partnership between Williams and Mercedes stepping up since Dorilton’s takeover, keeping a Mercedes-backed driver in one of the cockpits would make sense. So long as Red Bull wants to keep Albon under its umbrella, it would appear the route to Williams is shut off as things stand, making Alfa Romeo the more likely seat.

It is understood that Alfa Romeo has put Albon at the top of its shortlist to take the second seat for 2022. Any deal is likely to cover just next season, giving Red Bull maximum flexibility for 2023.

Alfa Romeo team principal Frederic Vasseur told Autosport at Zandvoort that he had concerns over the limited testing opportunities that a rookie would get, indicating that it would be a driver with prior F1 experience getting that drive. Incumbent driver Antonio Giovinazzi naturally brings that experience, but now that Ferrari does not have a say over that seat as it did in previous years, the team has more freedom to go down a different route.

If Williams is the preferred seat for both Albon and de Vries, then a lot will hinge on what the team wants to do, and how quickly it wants to move. Capito said himself on Friday that Williams faces “no pressure” to ramp into any decision, which is true. There is plenty of time to see what Red Bull and Mercedes can put on the table to get their driver in that seat. It’s the kind of luxury that Williams has not known for many, many years.

Should Red Bull agree to the condition of releasing Albon so he could drive at Williams - which does seem unlikely, given its investment in his career since 2019 - then it may leave de Vries in a weak position if Alfa Romeo is set on getting a driver with F1 experience. Even if it was happy to go with a rookie, then a driver bringing financial backing such as Guanyu Zhou might prove more attractive than de Vries.

In the cases of both Albon and de Vries, F1 drives next year would be richly deserved. Red Bull has continued to highlight Albon’s contribution this year even as its reserve driver, and his two-season stint in F1 proved his capabilities.

Nyck de Vries, FE Champion and James Vowles, Motorsport Strategy Director at Mercedes-AMG Formula One Team

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

Perez may have fared better this year alongside Max Verstappen, but the fact he has also struggled to adapt to Red Bull’s car and been so open about the challenge proves the size of the task that Albon - a man with far less experience - faced there.

De Vries has been on the fringes for some time. In the 2018 F2 season where Russell, Lando Norris and Albon were the top three, the man in P4 was de Vries ahead of his sweep to the title the following year. His switch to Formula E showed maturity, favouring a full-fat factory programme somewhere instead of hanging on the sidelines in F1 - a call that paid off handsomely with his title win this year.

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Whatever decision Williams takes is set to decide the remainder of the market, making the discussions that take place with Red Bull and Mercedes about giving their young talents a home for next year pivotal for more than just the British team.

Nicholas Latifi, Williams FW43B

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images