The driver Red Bull has so far overlooked in its F1 future plans

Through Formula 1's 74-year history, a Japanese driver is yet to win a grand prix.

There have been podiums, sure, and a series of impressive drives throughout that history - but none of the 21 Japanese racers who have attempted to qualify for an F1 race have ever basked in the glory of standing upon the top step. Takuma Sato was supposed to be the driver who broke that unwanted streak when he joined the championship in 2002, but his F1 tenure tailed off despite Honda support and he instead became a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner.

Then there was Kamui Kobayashi, who burst onto the scene with Toyota as a replacement for the injured Timo Glock at the end of 2009, but the Amagasaki-born racer bagged just one podium (fittingly at the 2012 Suzuka race) in a midfield career. Like Sato, he won a prestigious race outside of F1, becoming the winner of the 2021 edition of the Le Mans 24 Hours after years of misfortune in the day-long event with Toyota – plus he is also a two-time World Endurance champion (2019-20 and 2021).

Sato and Kobayashi were arguably the pinnacle of Japanese drivers who had entered F1; Japanese racing royalty Kazuyoshi Hoshino did just two F1 races at Fuji in 1976 and 1977, and Aguri Suzuki and Satoru Nakajima were nothing more than mid-pack quality drivers - even if Suzuki preceded Kobayashi's home podium with his own for Larrousse in 1990.

Japan's current hope, Yuki Tsunoda, has his work cut out to match Suzuki and Kobayashi's home heroics in 2024. This is Tsunoda's third visit as an F1 driver to the highly esteemed Suzuka circuit, where he has yet to chalk up a point through his years as an AlphaTauri/RB racer. Third time lucky? Perhaps, if his Australia performance is anything to go by; after the Jeddah round, embattled Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko criticised both RB drivers and accused Tsunoda of being too slow in the opening two races. This lit a fire under the 23-year-old, who proceeded to finish eighth on the road - becoming seventh after Fernando Alonso was slapped with a 20-second penalty for his part in George Russell's race-ending crash.

Marko's comments elicited the desired response, although it wasn't entirely fair. The acronymically gifted RB VCARB 01 chassis doesn't appear to be as effective as its testing form suggested, and it seems to be locked within the scrap over sixth place in the championship rather than sailing slightly above it. Its pace in the slow speed has been transferred over from the end-of-season spec AlphaTauri AT04, where an Abu Dhabi floor upgrade transformed its pace in the tighter corners, but top-end pace seems to elude it. Regardless, Tsunoda grabbed an excellent eighth in qualifying Down Under, and maintained his position throughout the race with a mature drive.

Tsunoda's eventual seventh place in Australia was his best grand prix result since the 2022 Emilia Romagna GP

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

His temperament behind the wheel, criticised for its sweary forthrightness, is improving and he's slowly becoming slightly more amenable when locking horns at 200mph. There's still work to do, and Tsunoda's fury will likely fire up again when he disagrees with something, but he's learning the value of keeping schtum and getting his head down.

Crucially, Tsunoda is doing the business on track. Last year's AlphaTauri was poor at the start of 2023, but Tsunoda managed to help guide the team towards more frequent points visits once improvements to the AT04 started to chime. He brushed Nyck de Vries aside with relative ease and, when Daniel Ricciardo returned to the team to reignite his F1 career, Tsunoda largely had the measure of him. It could be argued that Liam Lawson was his sternest challenger throughout last season, which rather demonstrates how the Kiwi is being wasted on the sidelines.

This year, Ricciardo has floundered. His best qualifying lap in Australia, which ultimately got deleted for a track limits violation, was still short of Tsunoda's previous effort - and the ex-Red Bull driver was at a loss to explain how Tsunoda could find even more time throughout the session having felt he'd extracted every iota of performance from his RB. "From my side, I felt like I got everything out of it. And then when I saw it still wasn't good enough compared to Yuki. I'm still a bit puzzled, because I know what those laps normally mean. I crossed the line, thinking 'yeah, that was a good one'; the time got deleted, but the lap itself was definitely the best quali lap I've done this year.

“But going into Q2, I don't know where there was much more time. You obviously take a couple tenths from track evolution. But six, seven-tenths? That's not in it."

If Red Bull fails to back Tsunoda, he has Honda in his corner going forward; this might offer an opportunity at Aston Martin once it links up with for the 2026 engine regs

Although Ricciardo believes he'll be able to get on top of the car, Tsunoda is undoing the Australian's bid to break back into the Red Bull team. If he continues that, and if Sergio Perez continues to blow hot and cold alongside Max Verstappen, why wouldn't Red Bull consider promoting the Japanese driver to its championship-winning team?

That might be Marko's inclination, but it certainly isn't Christian Horner's. It's been evident for a while that, while Horner has a fondness for Tsunoda The Man, he doesn't entirely rate Tsunoda The Driver. As early as 2021, when Perez got distracted by the AlphaTauri driver ahead of him during a qualifying lap for the Mexican Grand Prix and dipped into the run-off to spoil his run, Horner mused that his driver "got Tsunoda'd”. Using a driver in his own stable as a pejorative doesn't usually disclose a great deal of confidence in their abilities.

But that was then; what about now? When asked specifically if Red Bull had slept on Tsunoda, and if the 2018 Japanese F4 champion was on the team's radar for 2025, Horner gave that prospect relatively short shrift. "Yuki's a very quick driver," he began. "We know that, but I think we want to feel the best pairing that we can in Red Bull Racing. And sometimes you've got to look outside the pool as well. You've had a very fast, unemployed driver [Carlos Sainz] win [in Australia]. So the market is reasonably fluid with certain drivers."

PLUS: Why Mercedes, Red Bull and Aston Martin should all be trying to sign Sainz for 2025

Horner has never really been sold on the idea of Tsunoda being promoted to Red Bull's senior team

Photo by: Shameem Fahath

Barely a tinge of faith made their way into Horner's comments, suggesting that Tsunoda doesn't have a chance at Red Bull unless something miraculous happens. Even if Verstappen leaves, it only strengthens Perez's position in the team and would enfranchise Red Bull to shell out for a driver who can at least approach Verstappen's level in perceived quality.

In that case, what's next for Tsunoda? It appears that he's primed for another year at RB in 2025, although the team is likely to go through a repeat of its driver quandary last year as Lawson remains in the frame. If Red Bull fails to back Tsunoda, he at least has Honda in his corner going forward; this might offer an opportunity at Aston Martin once it links up with the Japanese marque for the 2026 engine regs.

He'll likely be an option elsewhere among the midfielders, as his speed has been a vital component in a tight battle with Williams, Haas, and Sauber over the past couple of years. But it's not quite the step that matches Tsunoda's ambition; he'll have to prove Horner wrong to meet his own expectations.

Matching the results of his countrymen in Suzuka this weekend would go a long way towards that, as difficult as it may be.

Can Tsunoda convince Red Bull he's ready to step up?

Photo by: Shameem Fahath