Why Mercedes, Red Bull and Aston Martin should all be trying to sign Sainz for 2025

“What happened at the beginning of the year, then the podium in Bahrain, then the appendix, the comeback, the win. It's a rollercoaster, but I loved it. I'm extremely happy."

Carlos Sainz was understandably effusive after securing his third Formula 1 career win in the 2024 Australian Grand Prix. It was a superb performance, made all the more remarkable given he’d got back into his SF-24 in Melbourne just 14 days after having keyhole surgery in Jeddah to remove his appendix.

PLUS: Why Sainz could have won F1's Australian GP even in a Verstappen head-to-head

Sainz had explained heading into the weekend that “athletes, when we have injuries, we tend to recover in a way quicker, maybe, then other people”. This, he revealed afterwards, in his case centred on a plan he’d begun forming almost as soon as he’d woken up post-op.

The 29-year-old credited a strict “programming” of his time spent recovering in bed, including when he’d rise and go for walks, plus what food was best to consume given his situation. Twice a day he entered a hyperbaric chamber designed to boost oxygen intake and aid healing, and used an Indiba machine that specifically helps with wounds.

Still, when departing for Australia he figured “this is not going to happen” as he “could barely use my abdominal to move”. But the progress his doctors – and Williams driver Alex Albon, missing his appendix since the 2022 Italian GP weekend – had promised arrived.

Come the end of 58 laps around Melbourne, Sainz was for “the last five or 10 laps” rather “stiff and tired but nothing that was slowing me down too much”. Indeed, he even had the wherewithal to call for Charles Leclerc to close in on the neutralised final lap after George Russell’s crash and cross the line in joint celebration of Ferrari’s first 1-2 in over two years.

Watch: F1 2024 Australian Grand Prix Review - Ferrari On Top Down Under

In the aftermath of Sainz inflicting Red Bull’s second defeat in 26 races, he is, of course, still searching for new employment in 2025 given Ferrari’s move to replace him with Lewis Hamilton for next year.

Red Bull team boss Christian Horner was asked about the possibility of Sainz returning to the fold he left before 2017 ended. This was right after he’d brought up Sainz unprompted when answering a question about Yuki Tsunoda’s career prospects – “you've had a very fast, unemployed driver win today’s race, so the market is reasonably fluid with certain drivers”.

“Based on a performance like that you couldn't rule any possibility out,” Horner replied. “So, I think you just want to take the time.”

"I would say all year, he's proved to be a step up from maybe what he has been last year. Yeah, you're silly if you underrate him" Lando Norris

And it’s not just free agent Sainz where the current driver market is fluid. There’s a sense that further big shocks are coming. And the changing landscape is perhaps best summed up by how one moment the also out-of-contract Fernando Alonso is linked with a possible 2025 move to Mercedes and then this week Red Bull. Plus, there’s the question of what will happen to Max Verstappen in the context of the power struggle still playing out at the top of Red Bull, despite a quiet weekend on this front Down Under.

Things would need to move for F1’s other big-hitter, Aston Martin, to have a seat available for next year (McLaren is discounted from the discussion because its drivers are locked in for 2025). But, already, Mercedes and Red Bull both have seats to fill and there’s now a solid case both should try to take Sainz, with Aston surely also in the hunt if Alonso moves first.

For Mercedes, Sainz has shown with his relationships with Lando Norris at McLaren and Leclerc at Ferrari that he could get on well enough with Russell too. And at Red Bull he's a clear upgrade on Perez, who after fine starts in Bahrain and Jeddah reverted to type in Australia. That’s mainly based on his qualifying mistakes last weekend given how his race pace was compromised by damage. But the message was clear that once again he’s failed to back up Verstappen on a rare occasion where the Dutchman was absent from the lead fight.

With each passing week, the F1 driver market intrigue ramps up

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Alonso's availability for 2025 does complicate matters for Sainz, as the tenacious world champion is available and still capable of feats like he achieved in Brazil 2023 holding off Perez. Although, Alonso showed he's fallible in his clever games as he messed up his legitimate tactic to put Russell off late in the Australian GP and picked up a penalty. Mercedes was soon essentially crying foul over those botched actions, so perhaps that will impact the chances of Toto Wolff considering Alonso, alongside historical tensions for the Mercedes board on such a move given his part in the 2007 McLaren Spygate scandal.

It’s also easy to see why Red Bull would want Alonso given his pedigree. And he and Verstappen get on well, given how regularly Alonso states he rates his rival. Plus, having Alonso would give Horner insurance if Verstappen does chose to go elsewhere.

But everything around Alonso is rumour for now. Horner's comments – again a possible tactic in the Red Bull management war given the friction between the Sainz and Verstappen camps during their time as team-mates at Toro Rosso – are something more tangible. There can be no denying Sainz lacks Alonso's proven world champion status for his potential suitors. Yet, there’s also the sense he’s underrated by many - although not by those in the know, per Leclerc and Norris.

“I think everybody knows Carlos' worth in the paddock,” Leclerc said once the trio had travelled to the post-Melbourne podium press conference. “He's one of the highest-rated drivers in the paddock. And he's been extremely strong every time he was in a Formula 1 car. He has showed it multiple times. So, I don't think he's underrated for that. I think everybody knows Carlos' worth. And that's why I've said many times that I'm not too worried about his future, because I'm sure that many team principals are… He doesn't say it, but for sure they are speaking with him! I'm sure he will have many opportunities and he'll just have to make the best choice for his career.”

“There's no reason anyone should think he's underrated,” Norris added. “I think for the people who know him, know what he's capable of doing, know his effort level, his approach and dedication to wanting to be one of the best, exactly like he's proved today, and over the last couple of weeks.

“I'm sure you have plenty of drivers who probably wouldn't have tried as hard and dedicated so much of their time and effort to trying to recover and get back in the race car. That's just one example of it. But for the people who know what he's capable of doing, you would never ever say he's underrated. Yeah, results are always a bit of a point to show and people on the outside just easily judge things from what you see on TV. But when you've worked with him, when you know what he's capable of doing, and when things click, they click very well and he has performances like he does this weekend. I would say all year, he's proved to be a step up from maybe what he has been last year. Yeah, you're silly if you underrate him.”

Sainz was flanked by two allies on the Australian GP podium

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

So, where does the sense that Sainz is underrated stem from?

Because of his understeer-preference driving style that needs a balance sweetspot to work, he does tend to shine on understeer/front-limited courses. This includes Melbourne with the softer tyres and graining considerations in 2024 particularly, or Monza and the precision needed to get the best out of the rubber there.

This narrows the chances he can be clearly ahead of Leclerc, who is also up there on such layouts. But he does tend to end up behind by the narrow fractions Leclerc generally has in rear-limited and oversteer tending courses. Japan, next up, will be a key test for Sainz given how Leclerc was able to outshine him there in 2023 right after his Monza and Singapore defeats, with the caveat Sainz’s appendicitis recovery is still ongoing.

Given Sauber's struggles in 2024 and how hard it can be for a team to make serious strides forward even with upped investment, plus the failures of major manufacturers Toyota and Honda in recent decades, Sainz should definitely be aiming higher

It also cannot be forgotten that Ferrari picked Leclerc over him for a new contract post-2024. One was always going to be bumped for Hamilton when the seven-time world decided he was available. The racing and business cases are so clear there. And there’s Leclerc's wild and unpredictable style that forms his reputation as generally the current best in qualifying, which also boosts his popularity in F1’s considerable emotional stakes.

The more cerebral Sainz – remember here how he forged his own wet-dry strategy in Monaco 2022 and ended up with a podium when Leclerc, relying on Ferrari, dropped down the order from the lead – is also rather a victim of unfortunate circumstances.

His altogether different pain in Australia two years ago where his team-mate dominated from pole might’ve been avoided had he not lost what was set to be a Leclerc bothering time due to the red flag caused by Alonso’s early Q3 crash. Sainz was then undone by a Ferrari reliability issue and crashed out in the pack in the race.

Sainz could consider himself unlucky to be ousted at Ferrari from 2025

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

And he should've started second in Las Vegas last year but for the water valve strike and subsequent penalty controversy. Those were two of the last three times Ferrari genuinely undid Red Bull on race pace (the other was Austria 2022 where Sainz's engine went up in flames). And how his story might've been different had he been able to match or even head Leclerc on those occasions.

Nevertheless, Sainz's career should still be blossoming. The suggestion he’s on Audi’s desired driver line-up list for 2026 persist given his history with team boss Andreas Seidl and his father’s Dakar success with the marque. But given Sauber's struggles in 2024 and how hard it can be for a team to make serious strides forward even with upped investment, plus the failures of major manufacturers Toyota and Honda in recent decades, Sainz should definitely be aiming higher to F1's established leading squads for his next move.

And they should want to sign him too. After all, there’s little else he’s got to prove…

Where will Sainz end up in F1 next year?

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images