Indecent proposal? How Sainz's big idea to change F1 qualifying might work

Max Verstappen’s high-speed trip across the Turn 9 gravel during Q3 in Austria last weekend generated much frenzied debate on several fronts, the first being whether race control took too long to instruct the marshals to display double-waved yellow flags.

Following this, a separate but related kerfuffle surrounded the rights and wrongs of George Russell setting pole position just seconds after Verstappen smote the barrier.

When Red Bull issued a peculiar mea culpa afterwards, attributing the spin to a loss of rear downforce but declining to elaborate on the record as to what caused that, the effect was to stimulate yet more argument. All in all, the events of Q3 at the Red Bull Ring generated enough shoulda-woulda-coulda to guarantee Beverley Knight a generous PRS cheque in the near future.

Obviously Verstappen derived no benefit from the shunt, but it caused Kimi Antonelli to abort a lap which would probably have been good enough for the front row. Instead he started the race from fourth, lost his cool while trying to make progress on the opening lap, and ended up finishing third in a race he had the pace to win.

So with this and other incidents in mind, Carlos Sainz said in Silverstone that he has a proposal to put to his peers and the FIA.

“I have a very personal idea about this that hasn't been discussed among the GPDA [Grand Prix Drivers’ Association] yet, which I will potentially bring forward as an idea,” he said. “I think this weekend because of being a sprint maybe we don't have a proper meeting about it, but I think we should – because it's clear to me at least that that situation [Q3 in Austria] should have been a double yellow or a red [flag].

“The way George handled it I think was perfect for what the rulebook allows you to do and he deserved that pole position because he played the rules to perfection. But it should never have been allowed to finish that lap or to close a lap in that kind of dangerous situation.

Carlos Sainz, Williams

Photo by: Kym Illman / Getty Images

“You could say, well, if Max had been on pole in the first run and then he produced that crash, and then there’s red flag and no one improves their lap, it would be unfair for George, Kimi and everyone – because the guy on pole is not letting us improve the lap time.

“Like typically in Monaco – and I could have done last year in Baku when I was on pole and I was the first car out of the pits, and I said if I crash now I'm on pole. We all have these thoughts and we all know how the rulebook works.

“And for that I think that anyone who generates a yellow flag or a red flag in qualifying should be three places with drop. So at least you get penalised and you get disincentivised to get a flag.

“Obviously Max crashed through a failure of the rear wing or something like this. I think we should find a solution for that – and that's my only idea that I think if you generate a yellow or a red you should get some kind of penalty.

“If you push flat out but you push too far and you're not letting others improve, you're earning a position by not letting others do a better job than you. Even if non-intentional.”

This is a complex proposition to unpack, and muddied in the context of Austria by the circumstances of Verstappen’s accident. It’s understood the rear wing took fractionally too long to close after the end of the preceding Straight Line Mode zone, but photographs and TV footage indicating it was shut as the spin began led to much frothing at the mouth.

When the active aerodynamics are switched on and off, there is an invisible but powerful effect on the loadings through the tyres, particularly when the wings are closed again because the airflow takes further fractions of a second to reattach. Add in the nature of the approach to Turn 9 – a blind crest – and the idea of an unloaded rear axle in the circumstances is a plausible one.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing crash

Photo by: Clive Rose / Formula 1 via Getty Images

Not that anyone except the most demented conspiracy theorists are claiming Verstappen deliberately engineered the shunt. But Sainz is right to say that some drivers can and do protect their qualifying positions – not necessarily pole – by generating yellow flags.

There are the famous incidents in Monaco of Michael Schumacher at the Rascasse in 2006, or Nico Rosberg’s ‘accidental’ trip down the escape road at Mirabeau in 2014. And as Sainz pointed out, Baku is another problematic track given the likelihood of drivers locking up at Turn 1.

Indeed, the ease of manufacturing yellow flags in Baku is what has driven the policy of waiting to assess the severity of an incident before displaying double yellows. All other factors being equal during qualifying, the conditions for a quick lap are most favourable at the end of the session, chiefly because of track evolution – this is how Russell secured pole in Austria despite lifting off for the yellows. Spoiling those final laps is therefore very tempting. So there is a broad consensus among the drivers that penalties for deliberately causing flags could be a good thing.

The obvious question, then, is who would preside over the judging process. It would require data and frontline driving experience – and even then it would involve an element of subjectivity.

In recent years, ex-drivers have been invited onto the stewards’ panel to improve the fidelity of the decision-making. But even then there have been high-profile occasions where their objectivity and experience has been called into question.

You could also say that very often, crashing in qualifying comes freighted with its own punishment. A shunt big enough to bring out a red flag generally involves a large repair job and a pitlane start.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Peter Fox / Getty Images

“It has definitely been spoken about before,” said George Russell at Silverstone. “If somebody causes a yellow or a red flag it kind of should be punished – because it does have an effect on other drivers or whether your fastest lap is deleted. We see it in another series.

“But on the flip side, people would also say your drivers aren't taking as much risk. Come Q3 you want to see the drivers pushing the limits. You don't ever want to see someone get hurt but you want to see drivers going off the track at points and going beyond the limits. “So there's pros and cons both ways.”

Indeed there are. If penalties were to be implemented for bringing out flags in qualifying, how long would it be until the first post-session furore?