What Verstappen’s big deal means for his future, Red Bull and F1

Red Bull and the Max Verstappen camp deemed the Thursday media day at Zandvoort a suitable moment for an announcement that puts an end to plenty of speculation. The four-time world champion has committed to Red Bull until the end of 2030, and that was, in truth, the only logical outcome of the past few months – despite all the occasionally wild speculation.

Yes, various websites – and social media in particular – have at times become rather excited about a potential move to McLaren, but often without much substance. The Woking-based team has acknowledged that informal talks took place, but quite rightly added that such conversations are completely normal in the F1 paddock.

Toto Wolff summed it up perfectly last year: as a team principal, it is effectively your job to explore where the future of a four-time world champion and one of the best driver on the grid lies. That is exactly what Mercedes did last year – although things went a little further on that occasion – and it is equally logical from McLaren’s perspective.

Driver market for 2027 much more locked up than expected

In reality, however, staying loyal to Red Bull was always the most logical outcome, for several reasons. Firstly, the driver market heading into 2027 is far less open than had been expected. It was initially thought that the merry-go-round would really get moving around this time of the year, but reality has turned out differently. In fact, the market at the top teams is completely locked up.

That story starts with Mercedes. Wolff has never made any secret since 2014 of the fact that he would like to work with Verstappen at some point in his career, but the reality simply does not lend itself to that at present. That is largely down to Kimi Antonelli’s rapid development, something virtually nobody in the paddock would have thought possible a year ago.

With Mercedes already winning with the Italian youngster, Wolff does not need to take the risk of signing Verstappen. Because yes, given Verstappen’s track record against team-mates, it would be a risk. If Antonelli is Mercedes’ long-term project – and it has become clear more than once this year that this should indeed be Wolff’s biggest priority – then there is no need, and perhaps it would not even be desirable, to put a great champion alongside him.

Antonelli's 2026 has effectively blocked Verstappen's path to Mercedes that appeared possible this time last year

Photo by: James Sutton / LAT Images via Getty Images

Ferrari was also seen as a possibility last year following Lewis Hamilton’s painful season. Many expected the seven-time world champion to consider retiring from F1 if he struggled to the same extent under the new regulations, but once again reality has turned out completely different. The Scuderia already has a long-term focal point in Charles Leclerc, while in his current form Hamilton is going nowhere and has absolutely no reason to do so for 2027 either.

Add to that the fact that Aston Martin has been a major disappointment and still has a very long way to go – a team that was still thought capable of tempting Verstappen last year – and the picture automatically becomes clear. It also immediately explains why the team that was considered the least realistic option of the four leading outfits last year suddenly emerged in the rumour mill: McLaren.

The McLaren rumours and the clause question

McLaren was the only remaining option, and so the whole situation served both parties. As mentioned, it made perfect sense for a team like McLaren to at least explore where Verstappen’s future lay, while the state of the driver market meant McLaren was Verstappen’s only leverage with Red Bull to secure a better deal. Autosport already wrote during the Austrian Grand Prix that the McLaren rumours should primarily be viewed in that light, and that is exactly what has been confirmed over the past few months.

It is well known that Red Bull GmbH, particularly its senior figures, repeatedly asked Verstappen before the summer break to publicly commit to the team

The eventual outcome is a very logical one. Verstappen has managed to secure an even better financial deal, while Red Bull was keen on a different contract for two reasons. Firstly, Laurent Mekies’ team naturally wanted to tie Verstappen down for longer. Secondly, it wanted to get rid of the annual saga surrounding the well-known clause – which for this year required Verstappen to be in the top two of the championship standings during the summer break.

Although no details of the new contract have been revealed – and therefore nothing about the clauses that inevitably feature in every F1 contract – Red Bull was keen to structure things slightly differently, ideally to avoid the same saga every year. That said, the Verstappens and his manager Raymond Vermeulen are smart enough not to sign a deal without any way out – such options undoubtedly still exist in this new contract.

The rumours linking Verstappen to McLaren were only ever that

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

It is well known that Red Bull GmbH, particularly its senior figures, repeatedly asked Verstappen before the summer break to publicly commit to the team, although he simply had no reason to do so at that stage. That source of uncertainty has now finally been removed, with Red Bull hoping it has done so in a more robust way to avoid a repeat of the same story in every upcoming F1 season. Whether it succeeds in doing so will only become clear over the coming years.

Performance currently not good enough, but freedom is a major asset

Finally, it cannot be ignored that Verstappen would struggle to find a much better overall package elsewhere. Yes, Mercedes would represent a step forward in terms of performance – at least this year – but that route is closed for now. Beyond that, the Dutchman has a team built around him at Red Bull, one that does everything it can to create an environment in which he can excel.

That was demonstrated once again recently with the succession plan for Gianpiero Lambiase. Verstappen indicated that he already had a replacement in mind internally, which turned out to be his former performance engineer Tom Hart. Red Bull subsequently pulled out all the stops to grant that wish. Hart had already been on his way to Williams to become Alex Albon’s race engineer, but after Verstappen expressed his preference, Red Bull went all in to reverse that move.

That news was already an indication that Verstappen would stay, but beyond that it is also illustrative of how Red Bull has been built around Verstappen and how the team – under Mekies’ leadership as well – does everything it can to provide him with a tailor-made environment. Yes, for the neutral F1 fan it would have been fascinating to see him build that process from scratch again at another team, but the reality is that Verstappen already has it at Red Bull and feels comfortable there.

Moreover, that relationship extends beyond F1. Red Bull gives Verstappen complete freedom for his GT3 activities and to further develop his own racing team, something Red Bull insiders see as an important trump card.

Verstappen already made clear last year that talks with other teams would not even make sense if he could not have the same freedom elsewhere. Although McLaren immediately indicated that it would not be opposed to his racing activities outside F1 either, the freedom Verstappen enjoys at Red Bull is on another level – he is allowed to race Mercedes machinery in endurance events, for example, and is free to choose whichever brand he wants.

Verstappen keeps it in the family with his new Red Bull deal

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Taking all of those things together, there is a kernel of truth in Verstappen’s oft-repeated claim that Red Bull feels like a second family to him – even if that quote can sound rather PR-like. Either way, there is truth to it in the sense that Verstappen has an environment tailored to him in every respect, something Red Bull consciously works towards in an effort to keep him for longer.

The only thing currently leaving something to be desired is performance – admittedly, not an insignificant factor in F1. But even in that respect, Verstappen still sees potential in the medium and long term. On the chassis side, the start to 2026 was very poor, perhaps even disastrous, but since Melbourne the deficit in terms of pure race pace has been reduced from 1.3 seconds per lap to two or three tenths in Hungary.

Admittedly, that was on a short circuit and it is still not good enough by Red Bull’s standards, but Verstappen remains confident that this difficult start can be overcome. The same applies to the fact that Red Bull does not have an AUDO token. It is frustrating and a handicap, but at the same time it is confirmation that its own power unit is competitive – something that was a major question mark heading into this year.

Beyond pure lap time, Red Bull fits Verstappen like a glove. Add the fact that the rest of the driver market is completely locked up, and this was essentially the only logical outcome

So yes, the competitive picture is not good at present, but that does not necessarily have to be an insurmountable problem in the long term – and the long term is precisely what this contract is about. Beyond pure lap time, Red Bull fits Verstappen like a glove. Add the fact that the rest of the driver market is completely locked up, and this was essentially the only logical outcome of the past few months.

Finally, the length of this contract is also good news for F1 as a whole. How long Verstappen will remain in the pinnacle of motorsport has always been a prominent question – not least because of the current regulations. But if the FIA and F1 do indeed opt for a V8 in 2030 or 2031, this deal could bridge the difficult years under the current regulations and a more appealing engine formula could even persuade him to stay longer.

And that would not only be good news for Verstappen himself – financially in particular – and for Red Bull, but certainly for Formula 1 as a whole.

The four-time world champion's deal effectively keeps him at Red Bull until the end of the current ruleset

Photo by: Manuel Eletto / Getty Images