How F1's mad tea-party driver market could look if Verstappen moves to Mercedes
OPINION: Formula 1's driver transfer market has been blown into hyperspace with the suggestion that Max Verstappen could jump ship from Red Bull to join Mercedes if the current power struggle continues to intensify. It's all hypothetical for the moment, but let's take a stroll into that world where Verstappen does indeed replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes
Jake Boxall-Legge
Edited:
The March Hare advanced from its burrow as a leap February drew to a close. A tepid 2024 opener in Bahrain felt somewhat secondary to the hysteria of off-track machinations that suffused the Red Bull camp and, although Max Verstappen's flattening of the field gave the team the result it hoped would quench some of the fire, it didn't quite manage that.
As this isn't the glossy you'd read in the dentist's office while awaiting a root canal, this writer will stray as much as one can from delving into the unpleasantness that has plagued Red Bull amid an apparent power struggle. But it's hard not to consider the effect that it might have on the team going forward, particularly when it comes to Verstappen's future. That his father, ex-F1 driver Jos, has waded in on Christian Horner's current troubles and emphasised that Red Bull's long-time principal should step down hints that all is not well behind closed doors.
Verstappen Sr was seen in talks with Mercedes boss Toto Wolff over the Bahrain weekend, and it's believed that the two had dinner together. Sure, they could have simply wanted to chat about the weather, but a public conversation in the lens of the myriad cameras around the paddock suggests that there's an element of bargaining here. It's surely no coincidence that Mercedes just happens to have a seat free for 2025 and beyond, and the driver market is already beginning to look like the Mad Hatter's Tea Party; Lewis Hamilton's move to Ferrari began the command to change places, and more are due to switch seats.
Is there a reason that Verstappen would consider leaving Red Bull in the first place? To answer that, you have to consider that 2025's driver market is somewhat encumbered by other forces; there are limited returns on immediate gain. Unless there's a surprise change to the regulations, it should be another year of running under the current ruleset and thus it's not particularly likely that a seismic change to the pecking order would emerge.
Instead, contracts will be offered with a view to 2026, when the new engine and expected active-aero regulations are set to take effect. It's a bit like Lewis Hamilton's move to Mercedes for 2013, where the German manufacturer ultimately delivered upon its promises with its far more advanced approach to 2014's turbo-hybrid formula.
Perhaps it's a card that Wolff has in his deck once again. That's surely the only reason why Verstappen would leave Red Bull sooner than the expiration date of his long-term deal with the team, if the indications were that Mercedes' progress with the near 50-50 split in power between internal combustion engine and hybrid components looked rosy. Or at least, looked rosier than the Red Bull Ford project.
Jos Verstappen was seen talking to Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff in Bahrain
Photo by: Jon Noble
If that's the case, then Verstappen has to carefully weigh up his prospect. A fourth title in 2024 is his, unless something goes hideously awry, but that's where the roads diverge.
As Lewis Carroll wrote in his sequel to Alice In Wonderland, 'Through the Looking-Glass; and What Alice Found There', when the White Queen offered Alice the chance to be among her employ: "the rule is, jam tomorrow and jam yesterday—but never jam today". Should talks between Wolff and the Verstappens progress, the former may play the White Queen in F1's production of Carroll's novel; 2024 will be yesterday's jam, and Wolff knows he cannot necessarily offer more for 2025. But he might be able to for 2026.
Verstappen can stick with Red Bull in the knowledge he'll have a great chance at the 2025 crown, but there are no guarantees about 2026. If he left, then 2025 might hold some short-term dissatisfaction, but he'd take that with a view to title challenges in 2026 and beyond.
In the event of losing its star driver, Red Bull would balance short-term and long-term planning to secure a driver that could at least hit 90% of the heights Verstappen could reach, but there are few available pieces that could fulfil those criteria
Verstappen openly admits that he has little interest in an F1 career as lengthy as those of Hamilton or Fernando Alonso, and would likely be keen to spend his 30s trying out other disciplines. So it's sensible to be flexible in the driver market, as opportunities to cram in more success can lie elsewhere - and he's not of the mind to tough it out if his current employer doesn't retain itself at the front of the pack.
It's a move that Mercedes would be keen on, replacing Hamilton's star power with that of his title successor. The suggestions that Mercedes would fast-track highly-rated protege Andrea Kimi Antonelli into the seat alongside George Russell might be compelling, but it doesn't necessarily feel characteristic of the team. After all, it took three years for Russell to earn his stripes at Williams before stepping up, and Antonelli would only be 18 at the start of the 2025 season.
Even a talent as prodigious as Verstappen wasn't thrown into a Red Bull straight away when he graduated to F1 at 17, instead spending a year learning his trade at Toro Rosso. Mercedes won't want to lose Antonelli by not having a seat to offer, but it also cannot risk burning out a star before it has had the chance to shine.
Let's indulge in some hypotheticals, shall we? Let's say Verstappen does the impossible and prises himself out of his lucrative Red Bull contract at the end of the season for a 2025 move to join the Silver Arrows. How would that affect the rest of the field?
Naturally, it would be a massive blow to Red Bull's aspirations. It might continue with the best car for 2025, but it has a gaping void to fill in its efforts to continue its championship successes. It would balance short-term and long-term planning to secure a driver that could at least hit 90% of the heights Verstappen could reach, but there are few available pieces that could fulfil those criteria.
Would Verstappen gamble the prospect of a disappointing year at Mercedes in 2025 for an upswing when new regulations come for 2026?
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
Daniel Ricciardo might be the short-term option, but he's not the force that he once was in his initial stint with the team. His return with AlphaTauri/RB has demonstrated that he's still a strong racer, but his placement with Red Bull's sister team was partly to assess him as a potential replacement for Sergio Perez, rather than as a partner.
As driver 'transfer fees' aren't cost-cap monitored, Red Bull could theoretically tempt a team to part with a driver with a big-money bid. Lando Norris has long been one of the team's targets, and the opportunity of a likely 2025 title bid would appeal. But, with the ink still drying on his new deal, it would take a lot of money for McLaren to part with him - and if it comes to the situation where the Mercedes power unit is enough for Verstappen to part with Red Bull, Norris might fancy his chances more by staying at Woking rather than commuting to Milton Keynes.
Carlos Sainz might be a more attainable option. Now a free agent for 2025 after losing his Ferrari drive to Hamilton, the Spaniard currently has Aston Martin and Sauber as his most probable options, and his performance in Bahrain underlined his still-blossoming credentials on-track. He'd present a sensible longer-term option and, although his ultimate performance level is not as stratospheric as Verstappen's, his ability to largely match Charles Leclerc would reinforce his ambitions to remain in a top drive.
And then there's the super-short-term option: Fernando Alonso. The two-time champion is currently assessing his future in F1 as he turns 43 this year, and it's not a given that he'll continue with Aston Martin for a third season. A vacant Red Bull seat would be a perfect fit; he could turn up for a season, indulge in a recreation of Alain Prost's 1993 title win, and then scarper off into the sunset if the 2026 project doesn't appeal.
It also gives him and Adrian Newey the chance to finally work together, having been the ships that pass in the night throughout their respective career trajectories, and hand Alonso a fitting swansong to his lengthy F1 tenure. But he certainly won't be the driver that Red Bull would want to build its future around.
In any case, a situation where Verstappen leaves would benefit Perez massively. Despite achieving his and the team's goal of cementing a Red Bull 1-2 in the 2023 drivers' championship, the Mexican made somewhat heavy weather of it last season, and has been on thin ice for some time.
However, the caveat is that the changes made to last year's RB19 (and to the RB18 in 2022) that favoured Verstappen's driving style did not necessarily suit Perez's sensibilities; if Verstappen was to be out of the picture, Perez could have more influence in the direction of the future car's development path. Should Red Bull have a similar advantage to last season then Perez still might not be winning races from 20 seconds up the road like his team-mate does, but he'd probably have enough in hand to get a title bid rolling.
If Verstappen did depart, Red Bull could view Alonso as a potential short-term option
Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images
A Verstappen exit would not exist purely in a vacuum and would affect the rest of the grid too, depending on who Red Bull could end up signing. Were Norris to be snatched from McLaren's grasp, Piastri would become its lead driver and it has options for the other seat: F3 champion Gabriel Bortoleto is on the books as a junior driver and looked at home in his first appearance for Invicta in F2.
It could also attempt to pluck Pato O'Ward from IndyCar if the Mexican had the superlicence points, which would stick it to Alex Palou somewhat amid the Spaniard's contractual cold feet and his decision to stick with Chip Ganassi Racing. Or there's the chance to bring Sainz back into the fold.
Should Red Bull opt for a free agent like Sainz, then that helps Valtteri Bottas' chances of remaining at Sauber and earning a deal with Audi for 2026. Sauber is another team with options: Zhou Guanyu has been solid if unspectacular in his F1 stint so far, 2023 F2 champion Theo Pourchaire is waiting in the wings, while new Academy member Zane Maloney lit F2 up in Bahrain with victories in both the sprint and the feature races.
The most likely route is that Verstappen sticks with Red Bull for the foreseeable future. But if he doesn't, the dial of the driver transfer market might be moved from 'outlandish' to 'utterly unhinged'
Haas driver Nico Hulkenberg has also been linked with the Audi project, which would give Ferrari junior Oliver Bearman a chance to move into F1 at the squad where he impressed in two FP1 cameos last year.
Then there's the prospect of plucking Ricciardo or Yuki Tsunoda out of RB. Liam Lawson would be expected to make the step into the not-so-junior team in either of their steads, while new junior Pepe Marti was another impressive addition to the F2 grid with his brace of podiums from Bahrain. Helmut Marko is known to be a fan of Isack Hadjar, and the Franco-Algerian driver got his chance with practice sessions for AlphaTauri and Red Bull last season, but he is yet to impress sufficiently after a year in F2.
There's another option for Red Bull, if the rumours that Alex Albon was offered a 'first refusal' deal for 2026 are to be believed. The Anglo-Thai driver endured struggles in his first stint with the team, but since then has grown in stature with Williams and effectively picked up from where Russell left off after departing for Mercedes.
If Albon could be tempted back, Williams has a wealth of talented young drivers waiting for an F1 chance: F2 rookies Zak O'Sullivan and Franco Colapinto are both supported by the team, as is current F3 championship leader Luke Browning - who is hoping for a chance to show what he can do at the wheel of an F1 car if Williams has a free practice or testing berth free. Alternatively, Wolff could persuade Vowles to give Antonelli a drive, completing the circle somewhat...
Certainly, the most likely route is that Verstappen sticks with Red Bull for the foreseeable future, rendering this stream-of-consciousness speculation utterly useless. But if he doesn't, the dial of the driver transfer market might be moved from 'outlandish' to 'utterly unhinged'. And Verstappen, playing Alice, may feel empowered to plunge deeper into the rabbit hole.
Verstappen unexpectedly appears to hold the keys to the driver transfer market
Photo by: Erik Junius
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