What's behind efforts to bring down Red Bull F1 team boss Horner

Beware. The dates may not perfectly align, but there and growing indications that some want Formula 1 to play out its own Ides of March moment.

Our modern day Caesar is Christian Horner, whose ruling of Red Bull has left some of those who were his closest allies jealous of his power and the spotlight he got for achievements, unhappy about his behaviour, plus resentful of his authority. A plot has been afoot, with media leaks, anonymous emails and now public calls for his head all laying bare that there is a concerted campaign to bring him down.

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In private he knows a game is in play, but in public, he remains defiant.

“I'm not going to comment on what motive whatever person may have for doing this,” he said after the Bahrain Grand Prix about those trying to hurt him. “My focus is on this team, my family, my wife, and going racing. I have the support of an incredible family, with an incredible wife and an incredible team. And everybody within that team. My focus is on going racing and winning races and doing the best that I can.”

That a conspiracy is going on there is no doubt, but what we don’t know right now is who are the modern day equivalents of plot leaders Gaius Longinus and Marcus Brutus, and what their real motive is.

What is obvious is that this is not a case of a scenario being stirred up by individual ambition for someone else to take over at the top. This is not like a politician pulling together an army of supporters to launch a coup and take over the running of the party and country. Right now there has been no evidence of moves by a successor to shore up a power base and manoeuvre themselves into the top job if attempts to oust Horner are successful.

That effectively means there can only be two realistic motives at play here.

A show of solidarity from Christian and Geri Horner in Bahrain.

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

One is pure personal vendetta, where individuals simply want to remove him. The accusations made against him by a female employee have acted as a call to arms from whoever it is to use the circumstances to stir up trouble. Their hope is that the war play either forces Horner to fall on his sword, or Red Bull is left with no option but to act itself. The end game is simply to bring down Horner, with the potential consequences of what happens in the aftermath not really of much interest right now.

But there is a second theory, which has gathered a bit more traction, which is of Horner’s potential exit being a means to an end. It’s one where him being out of the picture could open opportunities for others which are not in play while he remains in control.

It is widely known that within Red Bull there are a host of senior contracts that have a ‘Christian Horner’ clause – in that if he departs the team, then deals can be exited for moves elsewhere if those individuals are not happy. Whether or not Red Bull’s drivers have a similar Horner clause in place is not known, but if that is the case, then there have been suggestions that this could all revolve around Max Verstappen’s contract.

If Horner is not to survive all that is going on right now, then it too could leave turmoil at Red Bull

PLUS: How the Horner investigation eclipsed Red Bull’s 2024 F1 launch

Could it be that he either wants to renegotiate better terms (as a three-time world champion his value is now much greater than when he originally signed) for more money or increased marketing rights, or is there a temptation to move elsewhere?

Several times the Dutchman was pushed over the Bahrain weekend to give his full support to Horner, and each time he gave carefully worded responses that fell short of explicitly doing so.

The significance of his father Jos Verstappen’s remarks that Red Bull risks being “torn apart” if Horner remains should also not be played down – because that has lit the fuse on a potential explosion down the road. But is it realistic to think that a plot, operating in the manner it is, has been instigated solely by the Verstappens, at the very time when they have in their hands a run of truly dominant F1 machinery?

It was all smiles outside parc ferme on Saturday

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

As Verstappen Sr himself said this week about such a scenario: “That wouldn't make sense. Why would I do that when Max is doing so well here?”

For now, we don’t know who is behind what is going on.

But whoever the conspirators are, they could do well to take lessons from the past. For those who got rid of Caesar in the hope it would lead to the restoration of the Roman Republic were to be disappointed. The power vacuum that emerged with Caesar gone, opened the door for political chaos, instability and civil war for a while before a new era began.

If Horner is not to survive all that is going on right now, then it too could leave turmoil at Red Bull. He is the one who has helped mould the squad into a ruthless powerhouse that is delivering record after record in F1, and already has rivals on its knees with just one race of the 2024 championship done.

His influence with sponsors and corporate backers is extensive, and he has been the one in charge of the Red Bull Powertrains project that is bringing Ford back to F1 as part of a push to help the team be more a master of its own destiny.

While he almost certainly has not been whiter than white in all that has happened, Horner’s departure would leave a power vacuum, trigger potential rivalries in the fight to take control and risk shattering the foundations that are keeping Red Bull so strong on track both now and from 2026 onwards.

But, as Caesar himself once said: “In war, events of importance are the result of trivial causes.”

Is Horner a lonely figure at Red Bull, or is the team as united as he has suggested?

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images