Did Norris really 'throw away' a 'golden opportunity' to strike back in the F1 title battle?

There was a consensus across mainstream media following the Azerbaijan Grand Prix that Lando Norris had thrown away a golden opportunity to catch McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri in the drivers’ championship, via an ineffectual and anonymous run to seventh place.

But digging into the details, it wasn’t so clear-cut.

Axiomatically, six points for seventh place does not represent the kind of net gain over Piastri that a victory would have brought. But this assumes that Norris should have won in Piastri's absence, and in failing to do so he has squandered that gift-wrapped opportunity.

In truth, McLaren didn't enjoy anything like the order of car advantage it has been able to exercise at most other tracks on the calendar so far this year.

"Today we did not offer Lando a car that was in condition to progress through the field," said team principal Andrea Stella in summary. "It was six points gained for Lando, but I think it's not so straightforward [to say] that this could have been more considering the competitiveness of the car." 

You could argue the damage was done in qualifying, where Norris could do no better than seventh, but even this came against a background of McLaren not having the usual four tenths of a second or so it typically has in reserve. Practice wasn't the usual picture of McLaren dominance; sure, Norris topped FP1, but that session was rendered largely meaningless by the red flag. The Ferraris were quickest in FP2 before Norris went fastest again in FP3 – but only by two tenths from Max Verstappen, and again this was a session affected by wind gusts which disrupted several drivers' push laps.

Norris was harboured in the lower region of the points in the Azerbaijan GP

Photo by: Bryn Lennon / Formula 1 / Getty Images

In the crucial Q3 session, Norris was one of several drivers who had yet to set a time when the first red flag was brought out in response to Charles Leclerc smiting the barrier at Turn 15. Upon resumption, Norris was on a promising-looking push lap which he had to abort when Piastri got up close 'n' personal with the scenery.

This left a small window of time to get a lap in the bag when the session resumed, and Norris went out first – a decision he came to rue since light rain was falling at that point. He left too much time on the table at the problematic Turns 4 and 15, while Verstappen made the most of improving conditions to set pole.

One of the MCL39's key advantages this season has been its capacity to keep tyre temperatures under control, but that was nullified here by colder than expected conditions – on a track where tyre temperatures are less problematic because of the surface cooling which occurs on the long straight. Here, despite the high rotational speeds, they shed around 40C.

Norris was unable to get close enough to the car ahead out of the final corner to overtake on the main straight. That was what determined the outcome of Norris's race: in Stella's words "he spent the entire race in traffic, despite feeling that the car had more to offer"

McLaren was by no means the only team to be vexed by ambient temperatures making the choice between tyre compounds less clear-cut, but it certainly couldn't count on a lap time advantage which would make overtaking easy.

In previous seasons DRS on Baku's 2.2km main straight, as well as daring under braking for Turn 1, have been the key agents of overtaking. But in the current ground-effect era, not only has car performance converged across the grid, the rear wings are now so efficient in their normal operating state that the effect when the DRS is triggered is less marked.

Hence the relatively processional nature of this year's Azerbaijan GP.

McLaren's previous performance edge did not translate on the Baku street circuit

Photo by: Bryn Lennon / Formula 1 / Getty Images

Those in the top 10 who started the race on hard-compound tyres benefitted from being able to run long and establish track position, but Verstappen enjoyed the greatest effect in terms of tyre management because he was running in clear air for the most part. For those stuck in traffic the circumstances were slightly different.

"The start on the hard was a little concerning because of the low temperature and our car is not necessarily a car that gets the harder compounds immediately to bite on the ground," said Stella, when it was put to him that starting Norris on the hards rather than mediums could have been a more effective option.

"So we thought that the medium would have been a good tyre for the start, but also we were expecting the medium to last long enough, and it did last. And effectively, with Lando, we were in condition to stay out together with the hard starters and we were in condition to try and find a safety car, which unfortunately didn't happen, otherwise we could have jumped a few positions.

"I don't think that being on the hard tyres we could have overtaken Tsunoda, for instance. There was simply not enough pace advantage in the car today to overtake cars that were at a similar pace. So I wouldn't put it up to tyre choice or preference or sequence. I think the car was simply not fast enough."

Such nuances tend to get lost in the noisy rush to package a race weekend into a narrative summary occupying a sentence or two.

Time and again, Norris was unable to get close enough to the car ahead out of the final corner – whether that car was Leclerc's Ferrari or Yuki Tsunoda's Red Bull – to overtake on the main straight. That was what determined the outcome of Norris's race: in Stella's words "he spent the entire race in traffic, despite feeling that the car had more to offer".

Lando Norris, McLaren

Photo by: Andrew Ferraro / LAT Images via Getty Images

As to whether the long pitstop genuinely contributed to him being unable to pass Tsunoda and Liam Lawson in the post-stop phase, that is a difficult case to make since Norris emerged from the pits 1.8s behind Leclerc, the delay having cost him around 2s. On cold tyres it would have been a challenging out-lap even if he had filtered out of the pitlane alongside the Ferrari.

But why let the facts get in the way of a good story?

Norris now trails Piastri by 25 points at the top of the F1 standings

Photo by: Rudy Carezzevoli / Getty Images