A Ferrari one-two in Friday practice, Mercedes off the pace and Red Bull nowhere near on the timesheets? On paper, that looks like bad news for Mercedes, especially with Lewis Hamilton having to serve a five-place grid penalty for a gearbox change. But based on a look under the skin of the lap times there's every sign that Formula 1's dominant force, presumably now led by Valtteri Bottas, should be concerned about something other than Ferrari.
Not because Ferrari doesn't show some promise, but because there's no point in worrying too much about your second biggest threat. For it is Red Bull, third-best of the top three teams in the Australian Grand Prix two weeks ago, that could have the race pace to be the main thorn in the side of the Silver Arrows.
On single-lap pace, there seems to be little for anyone to worry about coming from Red Bull. After all, Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo were almost a second off in FP2 - a lifetime in F1. As for Mercedes, Hamilton would have been around three-tenths faster without losing time behind Kevin Magnussen in the final corner.