The key player in F1's shuffled driver market

The timing of Red Bull's announcement that Max Verstappen had decided to extend his stay with the team to the end of 2020 was a surprise. The Dutchman has endured a mixed campaign that has yielded one victory but also persistent unreliability, which has led to speculation that he could escape to join Mercedes or Ferrari. Committing to Red Bull right now is strange.

The team was supposed to be a title contender this season, given the prowess of its technical department and the change in aerodynamic regulations. But it's not emerged as one. There is also uncertainty regarding its engine situation beyond 2018, with Renault eyeing an end to its supply deal. That leaves Honda as the most likely replacement, particularly as it will be supplying Red Bull's junior team Toro Rosso, and currently that isn't such an appealing option.

But Verstappen has clearly been convinced that staying put at Red Bull is the way forward. A pay rise, believed to be significant, would certainly have helped, as would Red Bull chief Christian Horner's comment that "he is in the best place in the sport to build a team around him to deliver our shared ambition". That's one way to make your driver feel loved. But how does it impact the guy on the other side of the garage?

"I guess the announcement was quite early," says Daniel Ricciardo. "The timing was the only real surprise. I know Max is happy with the team, so I'm not surprised that he wants to stay."

Ricciardo signed a fresh deal with Red Bull last year in the belief that it would deliver him a car in which he could fight for the title. But that hasn't happened. He has now seen that same team sign up a driver - eight years his junior - for the long term with a view to building the team around him. So, he is right to feel put out.

While Ricciardo has comfortably outscored Verstappen in the races, helped by the latter's reliability problems, to lead him by 69 points in the drivers' standings, Verstappen has reversed the trend from last year in qualifying to lead the head-to-head 11-6.

Horner has said his priority now is to secure a new deal with Ricciardo. But Ricciardo has indicated that he's in no rush to sort out his future.

"I like the brand a lot and obviously I like the team a lot," he says. "We've always been a good fit for each other, so from that side it's all been really good. But the performance is the number-one box to tick."

Ricciardo could be the perfect fit for Ferrari. And a move to Mercedes is a strong possibility. But the curve ball could be Renault...

Sitting tight is Ricciardo's best strategy. There is no need to commit to Red Bull right now when there are so many other opportunities. There's potentially a seat at every team in 2019, and his stock remains high.

He beat four-time champion Sebastian Vettel over the '14 season, can win races - having done so five times without the most competitive car - and is an extremely likeable driver that any team would happily accommodate.

Given Verstappen's news, staying at Red Bull could be a bad move. Despite revealing that he did not know Verstappen had been given Renault's upgraded engine, Ricciardo says he has no fear that the team will show favouritism over engineering status and equality. But who knows how the situation will develop following Verstappen's new commitment?

With Verstappen tied up with Red Bull until 2020, Vettel staying with Ferrari for the same period and Lewis Hamilton likely to stay at Mercedes, Ricciardo will be in high demand for 2019.

He has long been linked with a move to Ferrari, but there haven't been any serious talks about him making the switch. That said, he could be the perfect fit. He has Italian heritage, has recently been making attempts to improve his Italian and fits the team's age profile.

Publicly, Vettel has said he would have no problem teaming up with the Australian again. But you could argue that Vettel will not want him alongside him, particularly after he was beaten by Ricciardo in 2014.

Ferrari has options for the future, in the form of Charles Leclerc and Antonio Giovinazzi, but promoting them in 2019 is unlikely. Ricciardo could be a great fit and be an option beyond Vettel if the latter does not stay beyond 2020.

A move to Mercedes, as a replacement for Valtteri Bottas, is a strong possibility. Ricciardo fuelled speculation of a potential match-up by saying at Austin that he would like to measure himself against Hamilton. Again, you could suggest that Hamilton won't want such a competitive driver alongside him. But by then, he may have five world championships and be less concerned about the threat Ricciardo poses.

Mercedes would get a race-winning driver who would only strengthen its bid to continue dominating the constructors' championship. Signing Ricciardo would mean Esteban Ocon waiting at least another year - but a third season at Force India would be no bad thing and he would remain an option for 2020 and beyond. He will still only be 22 at the end of next year and has a long career ahead of him. Equally, fellow junior Pascal Wehrlein will be just 24 at the end of next term and also remains an option.

The curve ball could be a move to Renault. The manufacturer is making gains, particularly on the chassis side. Progress with the engine has been less impressive, but it's certainly a team in the ascendancy. It made an audacious move to sign Ricciardo as part of the deal to cancel its engine contact with Toro Rosso, so the interest is there.

With Red Bull holding an option to recall Carlos Sainz Jr to the senior team for 2019, the Spaniard could head back there, paving the way for Ricciardo to link up with Nico Hulkenberg at Renault. That would be a strong line-up for Renault, but also a massive gamble for Ricciardo, who at 28 knows that his next move - particularly if it's to a team outside the top three - could ultimately kill off any chances of contending for the world title again if it doesn't work out.

The same logic would seemingly rule out a move to McLaren, which could also become an attractive option if it improves next year now that it's free of its Honda shackles. Fernando Alonso says his future with the team is "long term", but it's far from certain how long he will stay.

A move to Renault or McLaren would be a roll of the dice. Heading to Mercedes and Ferrari would also be a risk, with Hamilton and Vettel currently the dominant drivers in those teams. "If he goes to Mercedes or Ferrari, he's just going to be a number-two driver," says Horner. He may well be right. But Ricciardo is also now at risk of falling into that role at Red Bull.

To fulfil his ambition of winning the world championship, Ricciardo may have to break free and create a chance at Ferrari or Mercedes, and then prove he should be backed through strong performance and commitment both on- and off-track. Or choose to help build a team like Renault or McLaren back up to being a title contender.

Both options will be rewarding but have big risks attached. But at this stage of his career, they may well be risks worth taking.