How Rosberg spiced up the 2018 driver market

In the early part of last year the 2017 Formula 1 driver market had real potential. There were several drivers out of contract with seats available at Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull.

But as the season played out, Mercedes retained Nico Rosberg, Ferrari re-signed Kimi Raikkonen and Red Bull tied up Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo until the end of 2018.

Even with the final twist of Rosberg shocking the world by retiring five days after winning the title, it was ultimately too late to have a dramatic impact on the 2017 grid - although Williams may beg to differ given that Valtteri Bottas appears to be the man replacing Rosberg.

But for 2018, Rosberg's retirement means it is all to play for because whoever Mercedes chooses to replace the German with, there remains a chance of a vacancy at the end of the season if it doesn't work out.

And come the end of the 2017 season, as it stands, there is no shortage of contenders with Sebastian Vettel, Raikkonen, Felipe Massa, Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button, Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz Jr, Romain Grosjean, Marcus Ericsson, Felipe Nasr, Esteban Gutierrez, Jolyon Palmer and Pascal Wehrlein all potentially on the market.

Mercedes was left in a pickle when Rosberg called it quits as the decision came so late. Its choices were limited. When Sir Frank Williams announced Bottas would race for his team in 2013, he said: "Valtteri is quite simply one of the most talented young racing drivers I have come across and we expect great things from him in the future."

The Finn has yet to win a race in 77 starts and though only 27, there was already a feeling starting to emerge that Bottas's time may have come and gone. If the Mercedes deal goes through, F1 will finally get to see if Williams was right.

Ultimately, it's a pretty good solution for Mercedes. It has a driver that is capable of regularly scoring solid points and who has the potential to do even better. Should Lewis Hamilton decide he's had enough at the end of 2017, though his contract runs for another year, for Mercedes being able to rely on Bottas in '18 is a strong option. Equally, if Bottas does not deliver as expected, Mercedes has a plethora of options available to make another change.

Vettel is a free agent at the end of 2017 and a tantalising option. There have been some remarkable utterances coming out of Maranello regarding the driver Ferrari wanted to build its team around. In 2016, Vettel was told he must "earn his place" at Ferrari by team principal Maurizio Arrivabene.

When speaking to Italian media at the team's annual pre-Christmas briefing, Ferrari president Sergio Marchionne said his current race drivers were "under scrutiny". He added Vettel must "drive with composure, be more calm, less agitated" if he wants to remain on board.

It is a strange tactic from Ferrari. Vettel grew increasingly frustrated as the car fell off the pace last season. Now, at least publicly, he is being told to pick up the pace. With Ferrari seemingly in a mess and showing little sign of threatening Mercedes for the world championship, perhaps the prospect of Vettel being available for 2018 is more realistic than you would first think.

He'll be 31 in 2018, could race on for five or six years and ultimately end his career at Mercedes. If money is an issue, Vettel, for the sake of being able to add to his win and world championship tally, would likely be amenable to negotiating his wage, which is believed to be around $15million per year plus bonuses, particularly if things don't start well for Ferrari this year.

Mercedes would get a hungry, motivated driver who can deliver at the highest level. He would present a great option should Hamilton quit early or leave at the end of his contract in 2018 while a German driver succeeding for a German manufacturer would play well with the Mercedes board. Vettel would also be a great driver with which Mercedes could pair one of its juniors - currently Esteban Ocon and Wehrlein.

If it cannot get an established star from elsewhere, Mercedes would have the opportunity to promote Ocon if he succeeds in his first year at Force India or Wehrlein, who is set to miss out on the Mercedes drive in 2017 but will likely get a seat at Sauber.

Mercedes could even make a future move for Fernando Alonso, who has now gone 10 seasons since winning his last world championship. Providing Mercedes has reacted well to the regulation changes, the Spaniard will likely look into the possibility of a transfer come the end of his McLaren contract.

Ferrari, meanwhile, faces the prospect of losing both its drivers. With a Mercedes seat potentially open, and also an opportunity at McLaren, there is a real threat Vettel will leave. Raikkonen, meanwhile, may finally call it quits.

Ferrari overhauled its junior programme at the end of 2015, but the scheme remains immature with a plan for the future not yet in place. And Ferrari is still a team that prefers to take experience over youth so it will likely be shopping elsewhere on the grid to fill its seats.

But despite struggling for form right now, Ferrari's allure is still potent. Perez has one eye on the seat, having decided against taking a punt on Renault and sticking with Force India for one more season. The Mexican would be a good signing, especially given the commercial links the Scuderia already has with Mexico, but he would not be a lead driver.

Grosjean is another Ferrari option. He is happy at Haas, but he has spoken of the good relationship he has developed with Ferrari through its technical partnership with the American team and how it would be very hard to turn down Ferrari if it came calling.

"I definitely see myself having a really good time here at Haas and potentially a long time here, but on the other hand if you get a phone call from Ferrari... well I wouldn't say no," he told Autosport. "I've never hidden the fact that wearing a red overall will be something unique but there's only two seats."

But faced with a gap for a lead driver, Ferrari would likely try to poach Daniel Ricciardo from Red Bull. The Australian has a contract up until the end of 2018, at which point he will be 29. Ferrari has had Ricciardo on its wishlist for while now. With Red Bull having Verstappen and Sainz on its books, would it consider letting him leave for Ferrari?

Ferrari could then pair Ricciardo with Perez or Grosjean, while continuing to back 2016 GP2 runner-up Antonio Giovinazzi, who it signed as its third driver for '17, and its protege Charles Leclerc with an eye on the future.

Ricciardo's departure would pave the way for Sainz to be promoted to the senior Red Bull team. The Spaniard was very strong in 2016, earning a ranking of sixth on Autosport's top 10 F1 drivers of the season and 10th when the team bosses voted for their top 10.

Sainz was very tempted when Renault came calling for 2017, but Red Bull had no intention of releasing him from his contract. The approach did, however, further confirm that he's doing a good job on track. He has made no secret of wanting to move up to Red Bull Racing in 2018, even if he accepts that as contracts stand, that is unlikely.

Though Sainz is saying all the right things publicly, it is unclear whether he and his management team will be prepared to wait another year for a seat. Depending on the opportunity, it is believed there remains the possibility to buy Sainz out of his contract.

After three years of stability, Williams has a different line-up for 2017 and it is likely to be the case again in '18. With Lance Stroll a long-term signing, the other seat will be up for grabs beyond next season. Massa's delayed retirement will provide Williams with experience after Bottas's anticipated exit to Mercedes. But that would only be for one year.

If Williams makes a good job of the new regulations, and with its finances in good shape courtesy of Stroll being part of the team, that seat will be sought after. Wehrlein would then have two years under his belt and represent a very good addition to Williams, while keeping engine supplier Mercedes happy.

Over at Woking, a seat at McLaren could soon be one that several drivers want. Honda is making progress, while the McLaren aero team has built a good foundation. Stoffel Vandoorne is set to be a long-term fixture, but Alonso, who will be 36 at the end of next season, is less certain to stay.

Much will depend on whether he believes McLaren and Honda can make progress quick enough to give him the third title he so craves. Time is running out, so he may decide it is better to cut and run and give it one more shot with another team. Jenson Button could be drafted back in should Alonso leave, but McLaren is more likely to look elsewhere.

Button may decide after a year out that he doesn't want to come back, or perhaps he will miss F1 so much he wants one more shot. If McLaren doesn't want him, Button, who remains very popular with sponsors, may be so keen to return that he can make concessions on his contract to make him a viable alternative for several teams.

Then there is Renault, which continues its bid to return to the front of the field. Nico Hulkenberg is on a long-term deal, but Jolyon Palmer's seat could become available. There are also possibilities at Force India, Haas, Sauber and Manor while at Toro Rosso, there is likely to be at least one change.

Red Bull kept Daniil Kvyat alongside Sainz at Toro Rosso as an insurance policy in case the Verstappen-Ricciardo partnership turns sour. It's unlikely they will keep both together for another year, given it's supposed to be a training ground for its young drivers, and after winning the GP2 title Pierre Gasly's stock is high.

The stage is beautifully set, and it's thanks largely to Rosberg. While he created a vacancy at F1's top team for 2017, it is really only in '18 that the full repercussions will truly be felt.