The first four days of a pre-season test schedule dominated by the biggest rule changes in recent history is no time to bet the house on any team or driver. But as a percentage play, it would be hard to overlook Mercedes.
Watching trackside at Jerez, at a sodden Turns 1 and 2, the W05 comes to the fore. The car's margin over the rest of the field is incredibly fine but, in its benign attitude through treacherous conditions, its balance and relative lack of understeer, it does just about exist.
Of course, in truth four days is a derisory period over which to form a fully-informed picture of the 2014 formbook.