Nine Points of the Law

The phrase 'possession is nine-tenths of the law' is not ordinarily associated with racing drivers. Yet, in the context of Sunday's Bahrain Grand Prix, it may become a truism upon which the 2007 Formula One season hinges.

In the modern era, and particularly since the advent of 'dirty' aerodynamics hindering rather than helping slipstreaming, track position has been paramount in deciding races. However, team strategists and drivers have typically geared their efforts towards the final pitstops. Sacrificing track position early in the race was an acceptable gambit as long as the driver had a crucial few extra low-fuel laps before his final stop. It was in that critical phase that many tight races have been won and lost.

So far in 2007, the advantage has fallen squarely to the early hares. In all three races this season, the leader at the exit of turn 1 on the first lap has gone on to win. The benefits of running in clear air, with the leader setting his own ideal pace for the entire first stint, have outweighed tactical considerations later on in the race.

So it was on Sunday, although the signs for the two front-row starters, Ferrari's Felipe Massa and McLaren's Lewis Hamilton, looked ominous. Massa has never been the most predictable of drivers and Hamilton is yet to make his first serious mistake in F1. Seeing them side by side at the start, just seven days after they clashed swords at Sepang, seemed to be tempting fate.

Massa was desperate to make up lost ground on championship front-runners Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen. Hamilton, in turn, had his first F1 front row start and his maiden victory beckoning. Adrenaline or testosterone would surely get the better of common sense at the first turn, leaving Alonso and Raikkonen to profit once again.

It is a credit to both that the start produced no incident, although that was perhaps due to Hamilton having a tardy getaway and not being in position to attack the fleeing Massa right from the lights. With his team-mate Alonso acting as a buffer between Hamilton and the second Ferrari of Raikkonen, the McLaren rookie also had the luxury (for the first time this year) of chasing the man ahead rather than defending against the car behind.

If there were any hopes among Hamilton's growing legion of fans that the remarkably composed rookie would spring yet another rabbit from his top-hat of racing tricks, they were dashed by Massa's sheer determination. Becoming the first man in GP history to finish on the podium for each of his first three races was enough for one day.

Yet Hamilton's inability to pull off the pass wasn't for lack of motivation or risks. Both he and Massa locked brakes multiple times over the furious first half-dozen laps, but the Ferrari held a steady and decisive edge.

Massa's Bahrain win wasn't as calm and assured as his Turkish or Brazilian victories of 2006, but it didn't have to be. It was, by a long way, the most impressive of his career. It also served to overturn another 'possession is nine points of the law' assumption about F1 - that the driver in possession of the greater reputation will always return to ascendancy.

While paired with Michael Schumacher at Ferrari, Massa's performances (like most of Schumacher's team-mates) were undervalued. On the few occasions when Massa finished ahead of the multiple world champion, it was invariably written off as luck, or a rare off day for Schumacher, or perhaps the German throttling back to ensure a points finish for the championship while Massa (as a championship also-ran) could go for broke. In essence, it was frustrating yet also relatively pressure-free racing for Massa.

Felipe Massa celebrates his victory in parc ferme © LAT

No such considerations applied in Bahrain. Massa went into the weekend knowing that he had to break the early Alonso-Raikkonen-Hamilton stranglehold on the championship chase. A podium finish alone would have achieved that. Winning, especially in such convincing style, not only alleviated much of the pressure on Massa, it transferred that pressure to Kimi Raikkonen.

Renowned as a demon qualifier, Raikkonen has had his thunder stolen two races in a row by the pole-setting Massa. If the Brazilian's gearbox hadn't let him down in Australia, putting him under greater pressure to take risks in Malaysia, the first stanza of the season may have worked out very differently at Ferrari.

Considering the disparity in the team-mates' salaries, Raikkonen had every reason to look glum in the post-race press conference. It wasn't just that he had lost the air of supremacy that he showed in Australia. Raikkonen also looked uncharacteristically distracted in letting the leading three pull away from him prior to the restart. It had been his best chance to retake Alonso and set about attacking Hamilton. Yet, as the safety car released the leading pack, Raikkonen wasn't even in the frame.

If it is any consolation to Raikkonen, things aren't any better for main rival Fernando Alonso at McLaren. Alonso's below-par fifth place for McLaren meant that he was spared the discomfort of having to explain to the world how a less experienced (and cheaper) team-mate had easily outraced him. However, Bahrain was also a wake-up call for Alonso.

The common assumption, that Hamilton can set the pace in testing and free practice before Alonso cranks it up an extra notch for qualifying and the race, was also turned on its head in Bahrain. Sometimes, even Fernando Alonso doesn't have an answer.

Alonso and Raikkonen both earned their star reputations partly on their ability to bounce back from adversity, the Spaniard via his cool tactical approach to racing and the Finn through his focused ability to shut out everything but the here and now.

Going into the season, both had good reason to believe that the battle for Michael Schumacher's mantle would be a two-horse race. Each had one hand on the crown. Alas, both have found out that, in F1, possession is not always nine points of the law.

Neither has to up the ante considerably. Despite the deserved plaudits for Massa and Hamilton, they ultimately finished less than the length of the Sakhir circuit's main straight ahead of their more fancied team leaders. Still, in a year of such narrow margins, when even BMW's Nick Heidfeld cannot be excluded from the championship chase yet, building even a small performance advantage over the rest will be tough.

It has created the perfect start to a thrilling season - Alonso, Raikkonen and Hamilton locked in the joint championship lead on 22 points, and Felipe Massa still within striking distance. The best part is that the three-way tie has not been fabricated through unreliability or incidents. The three leaders all deserve to be out front in the chase, and all have performed impressively in turn. It's just that none has been able to dominate.

At the current rate, the flip of a coin is as likely as the most informed analysis to predict the winner of the next Grand Prix. Any of the top four could prevail, with the repercussions rippling on through the rest of the season. The four week break until Spain cannot pass quickly enough.