Reverting to Instinct

Since the start of this season, one universal truth of modern Formula One has been driven home: in such a closely matched contest, the 2008 championship title will go to the team with the best reliability and the driver who makes the fewest mistakes over the course of the year.

The need for consistency is a mantra that has been chanted repeatedly by all of the major title contenders, with increasing urgency as the mistakes and mechanical failures have compounded.

Following the disastrous Singapore Grand Prix, Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo expressed his confidence that the Scuderia would record 1-2 finishes in each of the three remaining grands prix, or at least finish both cars ahead of arch-rivals McLaren to successfully defend their titles.

McLaren, in turn, staunchly declared that there would be no repeat of the mishaps that cost them so dearly in China and Brazil last season. For his part, Lewis Hamilton added that the learning curve of 2007 had helped him to develop into a more composed and mature driver, focused on the bigger picture of winning the championship rather than going all-out for the glory of individual race wins.

It took less than two laps of Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix for both teams' earnest intentions to crumble and collapse. The house of cards was built on the erroneous belief that, for Lewis Hamilton, qualifying four places ahead of main rival Felipe Massa would be the perfect platform to showcase his newfound no-risk approach to winning the championship.

Instead, the championship leader reverted to his racing instincts - and paid the price.

The seeds of Hamilton's impetuous mistake can be traced back to the Hungarian Grand Prix in August. Having started that race from pole position, Hamilton was out-dragged by Massa on the run down to the first corner.

Questioned about the pass, Hamilton bluntly concluded: "He (Massa) locked up and then turned, so I thought we were going to touch, so I slowed down even more. But he still pulled it off, and I lost a place. It won't happen again."

The message was clear: the alpha male in Lewis Hamilton does not accept being passed. While no racing driver enjoys being overtaken, it is sometimes necessary to endure it without instinctively fighting back. Especially when there is a championship at stake.

When Kimi Raikkonen emulated Massa and got the drop on pole-sitter Hamilton off the start line at Fuji, it invited the predictable red mist response.

Since his entry into Formula One, when the precocious rookie overtook teammate and reigning champion Fernando Alonso in the very first corner of his very first grand prix, Hamilton has led a charmed existence at race starts.

He has been able to brake extraordinarily late, take innovative lines, and find gaps where they shouldn't exist. And, when the dust settles, he has avoided hitting anything solid and is regularly in a better position than he was on the grid.

The conventional wisdom is that Hamilton is peerless under braking and has the innate talent to get away with it time after time. The more measured approach is that Hamilton's undeniable skill has been mixed with a healthy dose of luck, and that good fortune only lasts for so long. In the hectic split seconds of first corner jostling, his natural aggression was going to backfire on him, sooner or later.

Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa clash in the chicane © XPB

In his defence, Hamilton wasn't the only driver to misjudge his braking point into turn one on Sunday. Most of the field got it at least marginally wrong. Hamilton's mistake was merely the most obvious and disastrous.

Except for the lightest brush with Raikkonen's Ferrari, Hamilton also maintained his record of avoiding race-ending collisions with other cars. But that was due more to Raikkonen's spatial awareness and evasive skills than his own.

McLaren-Mercedes team bosses Ron Dennis, Martin Whitmarsh, and Norbert Haug have been quick to defend Hamilton's approach. Instead, they cite the drive-through penalty and the second lap spin, induced by a nudge from Felipe Massa, as the major factors behind Hamilton's failure to score points.

But while the penalty and spin finished off his race hopes, both were precipitated by his needless and risky aggression into the first turn.

Even if Hamilton had managed to exit the first corner in the lead, the desperately late braking had flat-spotted his front tyres down to the canvas. So, at best, he was facing a compromised and difficult first stint, and probably an early pit-stop to cure the ruinous vibrations that flat-spotting induces.

Accepting his poor start, tucking in behind leader Raikkonen and building his race from a solid second position would have neatly avoided both the penalty and being on the same piece of tarmac as Massa.

While not risking all for the win might not be in Hamilton's nature, it is an approach that has paid dividends - as recently as Singapore two weeks ago. In an interview after the race, Hamilton explained: "For me to get anywhere near close enough to potentially have a big dive down the inside (of Nico Rosberg) meant I possibly would have crashed, so it made no sense. So I got some clear air and got some points. I don't think there is anything wrong with that."

It's illuminating that Hamilton felt the need to be defensive about his approach at Singapore, as though scoring six points (when the opposition fails to score any points at all) is a below-par result.

It is unrealistic to expect Hamilton to make the transition from aggressive win-obsessed charger to wise and experienced championship campaigner in just a few races. It's a process that took former champions Niki Lauda and Michael Schumacher several years to accomplish. Still, it is inexplicable that Hamilton reverted to instinct so readily when the conservative approach had proved so rewarding just two weeks previously.

Yet, with improbable good fortune, the championship leader almost got away with it. Hamilton's error had completely negated Felipe Massa's disadvantage of starting from fifth position on the grid. Massa must have been expecting a race-long slog to regain the lost ground and leapfrog the cars between himself and the championship leader. Yet he found himself not only with, but ahead of, Hamilton in less than one lap.

Faced with a gift of such generous proportions, Massa's response - impetuously nudging wheels with the McLaren after being passed under braking - was as mystifying an error of judgment as Hamilton's had been.

The field make a mess of the first turn at the start © LAT

Even if he had no way of knowing that his rival's front tyres were badly flat-spotted, it was ludicrously optimistic of the Brazilian to expect that the stewards would interpret contact between the two main championship rivals as a racing incident.

Predictably, both of the protagonists have expressed dismay at their own penalties, while roundly agreeing with the punishment meted out to the opposition. It's a distraction from the real issue. Both drivers were in position to profit handsomely from Japan, and both reacted poorly under the pressure of the moment.

Fittingly, the man to profit most from their misfortunes was eventual race winner Fernando Alonso, a driver who typifies the race craft and mental coolness required to perform consistently under championship pressure.

Routinely accused of being a cruiser during his triumphant maiden championship in 2005, Alonso clearly cares less about labels than he does about results.

His commitment and passion, recording back to back wins in the marginally competitive 2008 Renault, have marked Alonso as anything but a cruiser. Instead, he is a driver with the versatility and focus to adapt his approach to the conditions.

In short, Alonso is able to subvert his racing instincts when it pays to do so. However, it's a process of maturing that happens in increments rather than giant leaps and is bound to be hampered by occasional lapses along the way.

Or, as legendary commentator Murray Walker might have expressed it: "Claiming that you'll drive like Alain Prost is one thing, actually driving like the Professor is another."

It is perhaps fortunate that there is just one week before the next grand prix in China, instead of the customary two week interval. For if Hamilton and Massa had more time to dwell on their mistakes, it could prove ruinous to their mindset for Shanghai.

As it is, Fernando Alonso predicts that both drivers will be governed by fear of mistakes over the remaining races, rather than rising to the challenge to championship pressure.

However, both championship rivals are acutely aware that a five star performance in China will eradicate the bad memories of Japan. And both have the power to dominate when the mood strikes them.

In this most unpredictable of seasons, it wouldn't be at all surprising if one or both of them silenced their critics with a career best performance in Shanghai.