Driven to redemption

After the shambolic mistakes committed by both of the 2008 title rivals, Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa, last weekend in Japan, it was a solid bet that one of them would revert to form and turn in a dominant display for Sunday's Chinese Grand Prix.

While Felipe Massa avoided major errors and raced quietly to a second position gifted by Ferrari teammate Kimi Raikkonen late in the final stint, it was Hamilton who stepped up to the plate and took command of the championship. From the time that the cars rolled out for the first free practice session on Friday, the championship leader was peerless all weekend.

It might not have made for thrilling, or even mildly exciting racing, but for McLaren and Hamilton, it didn't need to be. If the teams and drivers ever feel an obligation to provide pitched wheel-to-wheel battling for the sake of the fans, that onus dissipates down the championship stretch.

Although it must rate as one of Hamilton's most composed and best-controlled grand prix wins, it was also relatively easy for the young contender. The pace of the McLaren, coupled with Hamilton's natural speed and confidence, was always going to be too much for the Ferraris. All Hamilton had to do was to ensure that he maintained his pole position advantage and led through the first corner.

Ordinarily, that would not be a big ask for a top driver. But viewed against the backdrop of the first corner events in Japan just one week before, those few seconds at the start must have been among the most nerve-wracking in Hamilton's career.

To his credit, he drove as though Japan had never happened. By midway around the first lap, the race as a contest was over. Although Hamilton held only a three to six second advantage over Kimi Raikkonen for much of the race, it might as well have been 30 or more.

Hamilton and Massa are both prone to occasional lapses. But when they do get it right, they're able to finish the job with metronomic predictability. On those days, a lead of just a couple of seconds is enough.

The victory will be doubly satisfying for McLaren. The initial prediction, even by team boss Ron Dennis, was that any advantage over the final races of the season would be based on the likelihood of rain and McLaren's established superiority in cooler or wet conditions. China was bone dry and hot for the entire race, yet they still held a significant pace advantage over arch-rivals Ferrari.

For the Scuderia, team boss Stefano Domenicali has issued the standard response which has applied at every grand prix this season from Australia onwards - that there is no need to panic, that the team will analyse the performance and work hard together to improve the car and deliver a better result at the next race.

The glaring difference between this and previous grands prix is that the China result has taken Ferrari's destiny out of their own hands. It doesn't matter if the red cars lap the field at Interlagos. Hamilton can afford to let them (and two other cars as well) drive off into the distance - and still canter home to the title.

With an 11-point lead over McLaren, Ferrari are still in prime position to take the constructors' championship. But Maranello have never disguised their view that it's little more than a consolation prize, and that they'd prefer to win the drivers' title.

Interestingly, Hamilton is now in much the same position statistically as he was last year - leading his nearest Ferrari challenger by seven points with one race to go. It raises the obvious question that, if he contrived to lose the championship last year, can lightning not strike twice to deprive him again in 2008?

Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa on the podium © LAT

While the championship positions are ostensibly the same, there are key differences between the two. First among these is the arithmetic inaccuracy of the oft-quoted statement that "Hamilton squandered a 17-point championship lead with just two races to go."

Hamilton only led Kimi Raikkonen by 17 points after Japan 2007. Teammate Fernando Alonso was markedly closer, only 12 adrift - a gap that closed dramatically to just four points after China. In effect, Hamilton was blindsided by Raikkonen while his focus was squarely on holding off the challenge of Alonso.

This year, there are no such considerations. Hamilton's new teammate Heikki Kovalainen is long out of the championship frame. More importantly, McLaren have not been wracked by the divisive internal rivalry of last year. Even if Kovalainen is not entirely satisfied with his treatment at McLaren, he is not in the same position as Alonso was to divert attention from the Ferrari threat.

That, in turn, gives Hamilton the luxury of a team that is united behind him, with only one championship challenger on which to focus his attention. It is a far easier situation than he faced at Brazil 2007.

There is also the all-important factor of momentum. At China 2007, Hamilton blew an excellent opportunity to wrap up the title, opening the door for his rivals instead. On Sunday, he closed the door significantly, making an already solid advantage even better.

Although there are no guarantees in this sport - and mechanical failure is an ever-present threat - Hamilton's position is as strong as he could expect after such a close-fought season.

Over the past 30 years in Formula One, a mere six drivers have ultimately lost the championship after leading it going into the final race. Three of those drivers (Carlos Reutemann in 1981, Alain Prost in 1983 and Michael Schumacher in 1997) held only a slender lead of one or two points prior to the season's last race weekend.

The only significant leads to be lost at the final hurdle were Nigel Mansell (led Prost by six points going into Australia 1986), Eddie Irvine (who was four points ahead of Mika Hakkinen at Japan 1999) and Lewis Hamilton last year (led Alonso by four points and Raikkonen by seven).

There is no chance that Hamilton will lose the title by being out-driven on the day, as Eddie Irvine was in 1999. That leaves an accident or catastrophic mechanical failure, such as Mansell's burst tyre in 1986, as the only plausible possibilities for failure.

Historically and logically, the deck is stacked in Hamilton's favour. However, even with such a handy points advantage, there is still the intriguing question of how the leader will tackle qualifying at Interlagos.

Lewis Hamilton runs wide on the opening lap of the 2007 Grand Prix of Brazil © XPB

Another pole position would give him the clearest run to the first corner, although it would also invite aggressive overtaking moves from the Ferraris, who are sure to be on the front two rows of the grid.

If Hamilton plays it conservatively and fuels heavier, allowing the Ferraris to lock out the front row and take the 1-2 while he settles for a safe third, he will have traffic (including Fernando Alonso probably) all around him at the first turn.

It's extremely unlikely that anybody in the field would try to cause a collision with Hamilton. However, the important factor is not what the other drivers will do, but what Hamilton thinks they might do. He seems convinced that Felipe Massa deliberately drove into him at Fuji and must also believe that there is still simmering resentment from Alonso.

Either way, it might be out of his hands. If the Ferraris rediscover their true potential, they could lock out the front row anyway, leaving Hamilton jostling for position in the chasing pack.

Whatever happens, the run down to the first turn at Interlagos will be fraught with dangers (real or imagined) for Hamilton. If he can get through the first sequence of curves with the same composure that he showed in China, Britain could be celebrating its first Formula One champion of the new millennium.