What we learned from MotoGP pre-season testing in 2021

Pre-season testing is always a tricky beast to understand, and 2021 is perhaps the most difficult MotoGP has had. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, just five days of testing in Qatar ahead of the opening two rounds of the season at the circuit were scheduled - though poor weather meant the final day was scrapped.

To complicate analysing testing, much of the field carries over their 2020 machines into the new season, with only KTM and Aprilia allowed to develop new engines. Losail is also a quirky track, often masking the true nature of the grid.

But with all that said, there were still clues as to how the 2021 season will shape offered from testing - as well as a fair few questions still needing to be answered.

Maverick Vinales, Yamaha, MotoGP Qatar Test 2021

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Has Yamaha solved its 2020 woes?

If there’s one manufacturer who really rather wouldn’t have wanted an engine freeze, it’s Yamaha. Regularly at the bottom of the speed traps last year, Yamaha will remain easy Ducati prey on the straights of 2021’s race tracks.

But a lack of top speed wasn’t its only issue. The 2020 M1 was a wildly inconsistent package and didn't turn as well as a Yamaha should. New factory Yamaha team-mates Fabio Quartararo and Maverick Vinales won four of the Japanese marque’s seven victories last year on the 2020 chassis, but Quartararo didn’t score any other podiums and Vinales managed just two.

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Both repeatedly sounded off about the 2020 chassis being nowhere near as good as the 2019 – which was essentially the frame Franco Morbidelli rode to three wins and second in the championship with Petronas SRT last year.

Yamaha bosses promised in the winter the 2021 chassis would be closer in spec to Morbidelli’s, but the first impressions weren’t brilliant. Quartararo wasn’t convinced by it, Valentino Rossi – settled in his new SRT surroundings – thought it felt very similar to the 2020 bike, while Vinales opted to focus instead on improving his own riding on the old bike during the first test.

But across the two usable days of the second test, the mood had definitely shifted.

“The new chassis is better; we have better turning,” Rossi, 11th overall after setting his fastest ever lap of Losail with a 1m53.993s, said. “Unfortunately, with the 2020 chassis, we lose some turning. This one from this point of view is better. It’s not the same feeling of 2019, but anyway it’s closer and also has some other good points.

Vinales, second on the combined times, added: “I did my last run [on Thursday] with the new chassis and I felt very comfortable on it from the first lap, which always a good sign. And also, the lap times come quite easy. It’s also another good sign of the chassis.” Quartararo was similarly more buoyed by the new frame by the end of the test, also revealing he was able to turn good pace trying things he didn’t like so much.

Fabio Quartararo, Yamaha, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

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Pace wise, all four Yamaha riders could lap in the 1m54s when they felt like it, with Vinales’ semi-long runs turning a few heads. Three M1’s in the top four on combined times wasn’t much of a surprise, Yamaha’s one-lap prowess undiminished in 2021. All four riders – even Morbidelli, who was “surprised” by the “substantial” updates Yamaha brought to his ageing ‘A-spec’ bike – were positive about the feeling of the Yamaha after the test.

But caution was urged. Yamaha famously goes well in tests because of the abundance of Michelin rubber burned into the asphalt and the absence of Moto2 Dunlop rubber, with Vinales telling Autosport pre-test that this would be his hardest pre-season because of this. Vinales conceded the track conditions will differ come the Qatar GP, but felt the fact he could do quick laps towards the end of a tyre’s life at least hinted the 2021 bike could cope in lower grip conditions than in recent years.

Quartararo was less sure, admitting: “The bike feels really, really good because the track has a lot of grip. So, I think we will struggle in Portimao… tracks where there is low grip I think we will struggle.”

So, the messages from Yamaha riders remain mixed, but the 2021 bike does appear to at least be a noticeable improvement of last year’s.

Jack Miller, Ducati, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

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Are Ducati and Miller title favourites?

Vinales spent a lot of time practicing his starts and fettling with clutch settings during the Qatar test, because Yamaha’s pre-existing power deficit means overtaking others will again be difficult. He feels the Japanese marque won’t stand a chance at wins without leading the pack from the off and utilising the M1’s strengths.

There’s no more difficult bike to overtake than a Ducati. Pramac’s Johann Zarco set an unofficial top speed record of 222.2mph on the penultimate day of testing. And the day before, Jack Miller guided his factory Desmosedici to an unofficial lap record of 1m53.183s to top the test outright.

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Those are impressive feats when you consider the engine freeze and the fact the 2021 rear tyres are a step harder in compound compared to 2020. Both are slightly unrepresentative, given Zarco likely had a slipstream to use, while Miller admitted the perfect conditions last Wednesday “begged” him to go for a time attack.

And of course, Qatar has typically been Ducati territory, with the Italian marque winning the last two GPs in Losail courtesy of Andrea Dovizioso. But make no mistake, Miller’s form during the test wasn’t just a result of a perfect circumstance.

The Australian put in a full race simulation on Thursday (sticking with the new aerodynamic fairing concept Ducati has adopted for most of the test), his pace in the high 1m54s/low 1m55s – though there was a bit of drop-off in the final few laps, which he put down to not fully recreating the pace you’d normally see in a Qatar race. The tweaks to the 2021 Ducati have also given him a feeling with the front end he’s never had on the bike before.

“Just my confidence in the front end of the bike to be honest, how I’m really able to let the brakes off and let the bike really roll and carry some decent corner speed,” Miller said of the positive points of the GP21. “I haven’t really had that confidence in this thing ever, and especially with the faster corners – 13, 14, 15 – the transfer from 13/14, just letting the brakes off and letting the bike hook-in the turn, it feels fantastic.”

Strong across the whole test, picking up where he left off at the end of last season when he scored two podiums in the last three races, Miller’s step up to the factory squad looks to have started perfectly. And many believe he is already the favourite for the 2021 title.

Ducati will surely be hopeful this comes to pass, but that’s not to say it’s giving Francesco Bagnaia the number two treatment. He put in a similarly impressive race run to Miller’s on Thursday, with pace comparable also to that of the Yamahas.

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

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What was most encouraging about Bagnaia’s race run was the fact the opening lap of it was faster than the rest. Tyre warm-up was a big issue for him last season, and Qatar’s evening track schedule can flag up this problem. It was an area he worked on over the winter and he appears to have cracked it. That should hopefully allow him to arrest the run of four DNFs from the previous five races he suffered.

Bagnaia admitted he needed to find more in time attack mode – but his 1m53.444s which put him fifth on combined times was hardly a bad effort.

As will be the caveat for pretty much everyone, how Ducati goes at more conventional circuits beyond Qatar will be truly telling. But the Italian marque’s decision to bank on youth in its factory line-up is already yielding promise.

Pol Espargaro, Honda, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

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Pol Espargaro can ride the Honda… and well

Under normal circumstances, the first day of the Qatar test would have been Pol Espargaro’s sixth on the Honda. As it’s turned out, he starts the 2021 season with just four days on the grid’s most notorious motorcycle.

That said, Espargaro – as Miller noted – was the “standout” of testing. It was widely thought Espargaro would be able to adapt to the RC213V from the KTM he rode for four years previously quite well as both needed to be hustled, and this is the kind of riding the Spaniard loves to do. It’s why he didn’t get on with the Yamaha when he rode for Tech3 in 2015 and 2016.

Espargaro had a lot to get his head around, not least returning to a conventional aluminium chassis having ridden the steel trellis frame at KTM, and the critical Honda front end. Despite all of that, he ended the test 10th overall and just 0.7s off the best pace. And on a 10-lap long run on Thursday on used rubber, he easily reeled off high 1m54s and low 1m55s.

Miller believed Espargaro is just as much of a victory threat as the usual frontrunners, but the Honda rider was keen to brush aside such praise as – though he’s gained a better understanding of it – he still doesn’t know where the true limit of the Honda’s front end is.

“I need more laps,” he said. “I can tell you I know where the limit is, but sometimes yes, sometimes no. It depends on the tyre, still I need to try different compounds in different race tracks to know which is the performance of the medium, which is the performance of the hard, which compounds are good for me. It’s a matter of time and experience, and at the moment I think I have more or less the situation under control here in Qatar.”

He admitted after the opening test he found this fact “stressful”, and was even disappointed about his one and only crash as it wasn’t the one he expected to have on the Honda.

What’s clear is Espargaro still has a lot of work to do. But it’s also evident the same woes which befell Jorge Lorenzo when he jumped onto the Honda in 2019 won’t happen to Espargaro. So what does this tell us about the Honda? Well, Espargaro himself admitted it’s the best suited bike to his riding style.

Alex Marquez, LCR Honda, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

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But the absence of Marc Marquez through injury in 2020 forced HRC to work in a different direction based on the riders it had at its disposal and it’s clear those tweaks have made the bike a trifle more friendly. The fact that the 2021 chassis that Stefan Bradl rode in the latter stages of last season seems to be the frame of choice within HRC’s ranks, rather than the variant, backs this up.

Espargaro ended up as Honda’s leading light in the test. LCR’s Alex Marquez crashed five times across four days and fractured his foot in the last one, while Takaaki Nakagami also took several visits to the gravel trap along with Bradl. And at this stage, there’s not a lot to suggest Espargaro won’t continue being Honda’s top man – even when Marc Marquez finally returns.

Joan Mir, Suzuki, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

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A world champion in hiding

“I don’t feel like Suzuki has really shown their cards at this test.” This was the impression Miller had of the reigning MotoGP teams’ and riders’ champions after pre-season testing.

The carryover in rules from 2020 was thought to likely benefit Suzuki the most as it had the most consistent package of the campaign. But Suzuki remained fairly anonymous as the test concluded as it spent the first half of it trying its 2022 engine, while the lost final day meant neither world champion Joan Mir nor Alex Rins could complete a race simulation and put more crucial miles on the 2021 GSX-RR chassis.

The new chassis has positive points over its predecessor, but both Mir and Rins felt it wasn’t as strong under braking. And with the lack of time to work deeper on set-up to see if that problem was fundamental or could be fixed with some setting tweaks, both think they’ll start the season on the old frame.

“Probably we will go with the same one as last year’s,” Mir, who was seventh overall, said when Autosport asked about his chassis choice. “The new chassis, it performs quite well, but we need to make a good set-up for it and probably we don’t have that time.”

Mir also admitted he’s only “70%” ready for the start of the new season, but feels prepared enough. Rins was more upbeat about Suzuki’s prospects, adding: “We are ready to start the championship, I’m feeling prepared to fight in the race because for sure we will fight in this race.”

Both Rins and Mir had strong races in the last Qatar GP in 2019, so Losail is typically a good circuit for Suzuki. However, it’s not clear yet if the Suzuki duo have made a gain in qualifying performance.

There’s few who doubt Suzuki will be in the mix come the opening round, but there are still questions to be answered about the new package after testing.

Brad Binder, KTM, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

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What’s going on at KTM?

There was a lot of fear surrounding KTM’s 2021 challenger in the middle of last year when the manufacturers’ association agreed to let it build a new engine after losing its concessions in 2020.

And a great deal of suspicion arose when KTM motorsport boss Pit Beirer’s remarked in February that the Austrian manufacturer had in fact not built a ‘super engine’ out of respect for its rivals. And even as testing went on there was a thought that KTM was sandbagging, that the true potential of the 2021 RC16 would slap the rest in the face at some point.

But that moment never came. Miguel Oliveira was its top runner in 13th on the combined times, 1.3s off the pace, while factory team-mate Brad Binder couldn’t stop crashing for the first three days of the test and ended up 1.5s off the pace in 17th. Both Tech3 riders Danilo Petrucci and Iker Lecuona also remained anonymous.

Qatar has typically never been a kind venue to KTM in the past, with Oliveira admitting on Thursday the Austrian marque had seemingly “hit a wall” in terms of gains. Binder also noted: “I think it just comes down to the fact that maybe Qatar is not the best suited to our bike, especially the style here is more like [you have to be] light on the brakes, let go of it and keep speed and flow.

“One thing that our KTM is very good at is turning with the front brake in the hand, and the bike stops like hell too. Here there’s not really many opportunities to use our biggest advantage, and I think the track is a little bit tricky for us.”

KTM’s new engine wasn’t much to shout home about either, Oliveira around 10km/h down on the fastest through the speed trap. But, given KTM has to make do with seven for the season instead of nine now, the new motor has been designed more around durability it seems.

But given the overall 2021 package isn’t that far removed from last year’s race-winning RC16, with Binder noting his base settings are more or less identical to last year, this does suggest that once we get to more normal tracks in Europe things will get better. And the general mood within KTM is one of optimism after the test.

“I believe things are a lot worse on paper than they are in reality, or at least what they will be on the race weekend,” Binder concluded.

Aleix Espargaro, Aprilia, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

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And the rest…

The Qatar test was notable for the public debut of Aprilia’s all-new RS-GP, which Aleix Espargaro and Lorenzo Savadori have been testing since November as concession regulations have allowed it to build a new bike for 2021. The former was full of praise for the new machine, ending the test sixth overall and just under half a second off the pace.

Espargaro put in an encouraging race run on the second day of low-mid 1m55s, though his programme was set back a bit on the third day when a technical issue meant he couldn’t do the set-up work he wanted to try and make the bike lighter in the corners.

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Overall, though, Aprilia appears to have hit the ground running with its new bike ahead of what its big hitters have labelled its most important season in MotoGP.

MotoGP’s rookie crop also looks to be another impressive bunch – not there was any doubt. Three of the paddock’s hottest young prospects in Jorge Martin (Pramac) and Avintia duo Luca Marini and reigning Moto2 world champion Enea Bastianini have been snapped up by Ducati for 2021.

Martin led the rookies at the end of the test, finishing up 14th on the combined timesheets after making a gain of 1.2s in lap time between the two tests. He was 0.022s up the road from Bastianini, while Marini half a second further back in 21st.

Of the three, and perhaps unsurprisingly, Bastianini demonstrated the most eye catching race pace. Over a 15-lap run on the penultimate day, Bastianini struck off consistent low-mid 1m55s, while the other two hovered around the mid-high 1m55s mark on their race simulations.

Of the three in their Moto2 days, Bastianini was the one who adapted to the bigger machinery quicker, and so the quickness in which he is getting to grips with his GP19 MotoGP bike isn’t a huge surprise.

All three still having things to sort out, mainly around the front of the bike and how to enter corners on the Ducati. But none of them felt they had any major changes to make for the first round of their rookie campaigns.

Such is the quality of these young riders and the machinery they have, don’t rule out seeing any of them on the podium this season.

Enea Bastianini, Avintia, MotoGP Qatar test 2021

Photo by: Gold and Goose