The past clues which hint at the MotoGP order in Qatar

This time 12 months ago, the season-opening MotoGP encounter in Qatar was cancelled as the chaos of COVID-19 began to unfurl across the globe. Mercifully, a year later, Friday practice for the 2021 Qatar Grand Prix is in the books and we can theorise about how the race will shake-up rather than if we’ll see any racing at all.

All of pre-season testing took place on the Losail International Circuit, so Friday in Qatar was basically a case of picking up where the riders left off after the five days (well, effectively four, given the final day was ruined by high winds).

As in the test, Ducati and Jack Miller ended up fastest of all; Yamaha looked good, but the comments were still somewhat mixed from its riders and Suzuki remained a little under the radar. Frustratingly, despite the riders having spent more time on the Losail Circuit than most have in their own homes this March, we didn’t see any proper race simulations in FP2.

Generally true race running is reserved for FP4 sessions on grands prix weekends. But, as was the case at repeat races last year, there were more long runs on Fridays the longer we spent at a circuit.

Evaluating where the pecking order currently lies is tricky. But perhaps clues lie in MotoGP’s last visit to Qatar in 2019, when Ducati's now ousted star Andrea Dovizioso pipped Marc Marquez on the Honda by 0.023 seconds in a thrilling encounter – repeating an identical duel from the year before at the same venue.

Andrea Dovizioso and Marc Marquez, Qatar GP 2019

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Courtesy of Dovizioso, Ducati has reigned supreme in Qatar for the past two years with the long blast from Turn 16 to Turn 1 prime territory for the Italian bikes to unleash their terrifying power. The dusty nature of the circuit also tends to mask the Desmosedici’s turning weakness, although its new riders also seem to be making the difference in this area.

Perhaps predictably, the opening day and the first tags of favourite went to Ducati. Miller led team-mate Francesco Bagnaia by 0.035s, while Pramac’s Johann Zarco rounded out the top four on his GP21 as he gears up to deliver on his Thursday promise that 2021 was “my time” to start winning.

PLUS: How Ducati rebuilt Zarco into a factory MotoGP rider

Naturally, Miller’s experience – as well as his strong testing form – have many pegging him as a title favourite, which is a fact he admits he is enjoying. And without a MotoGP victory since his maiden triumph at the Dutch TT in 2016 on the Marc VDS Honda, all eyes are on Miller to continue Ducati’s Qatar victory run this weekend.

"From my book Franky is the man to beat, but we will see what happens"Jack Miller

Miller was a factor in the early podium battle in the last Qatar GP, but a broken seat unit dropped him down the order and he ultimately retired as staying aboard his machine became significantly difficult. Despite past form certainly working to his favour, he’s wary of another threat.

“As you see the times are incredibly close already,” said Miller, who had a small crash in FP1. “It’s FP2. I was top but Zarco is fourth and he’s not even two tenths away from me and I was seven thousands away from the lap record. It’s not normal to do that in FP2 let’s say. I’m a little scared about qualifying, where that is going to leave us, but there’s many guys going fast here.

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“Right from the start Franky [Morbidelli] was fast and strong, he did a fastest lap this afternoon in the third run and he didn’t change tyres, unlike the lot of them. I had to change tyres, my plan was to be like Franky but when I threw the bike in the gravel [in FP1], I had no other choice. From my book Franky is the man to beat, but we will see what happens.”

Qatar has always been a solid track for Yamaha, the Japanese marque winning eight times since the event’s inception in 2004 – although it has been absent from the top step since Maverick Vinales’ stunning M1 debut in 2017.

Franco Morbidelli, Petronas Yamaha SRT

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Morbidelli was a rather anonymous 11th in the 2019 race, but Valentino Rossi on the factory M1 ended up just 0.600s away from the win in fifth, while former Petronas SRT team-mate Fabio Quartararo was set to rip up trees from fifth on the grid on his MotoGP debut before he stalled on the warm-up lap and had to start from pitlane. Morbidelli may only have been seventh after FP2, but was just over three tenths off the pace and he’s still on the older ‘A-spec’ M1.

Leading FP1, Morbidelli’s best lap in that session came on a 16-lap old hard rear tyre. That’s unlikely to be the race option, but a 1m54.921s in pretty useless conditions – given FP1 is run in broad daylight in baking heat and on a filthy surface – is encouraging. As was his handful of consistent low 1m55s and high 1m54s on medium rubber in FP2. Predictably, when asked by Autosport to comment on Miller’s assertions, Morbidelli was his usual grounded self.

“Looking at the numbers and looking at today’s chart, it looks more like the Ducatis are the favourites," he remarked. “But nothing is set yet, so we should wait a little bit more into the weekend to predict something I think because today is the first approach and it looks like the Ducatis, especially tonight, found the speed that they had at the test – nothing less, nothing more, while we are struggling a bit more to get that same speed."

Yamaha’s one-lap speed in general remained solid as ever. Quartararo completed the top three after Friday practice, while Vinales was sixth. Both ended testing pleased with the new package, but now grip levels have changed with more Dunlop rubber from Moto2 and Moto3 being laid on track, the comments are a bit more mixed.

Quartararo felt his final sector was “strange” compared to the test, the Frenchman unable to make decent corner speed. Vinales feels the balance of the bike has to improve somewhat, but was buoyed by his lap times being in a good place despite grip levels being low. Whether Yamaha’s key issue of a lack of grip in races following Moto2 has been resolved, Vinales told Autosport it was “too soon” to tell.

In the 2019 Qatar GP, Vinales conquered Saturday, but did his usual disappearing act in the early stages of the race as he struggled for grip on a full fuel tank. And as the race wore on, his pace improved to the same level of those in the podium battle – but he was too far away by this point to make an impact and ended up seventh.

What hindered Vinales in that race also was a poor launch. This has been the main area of focus for him in the pre-season and again on Friday, making a practice start every time he left pitlane. With Yamaha still at least 8km/h down on the Ducatis on the straight in Qatar, and the M1’s tendency to struggle in pack races, Vinales feels if Yamaha can’t start well on Sunday it will “suffer”.

Maverick Vinales, Yamaha Factory Racing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

What is easily forgotten about the 2019 Qatar GP is just how well Suzuki went. Alex Rins was just shy of the final step of the podium in the end, while Joan Mir on his debut MotoGP appearance ran inside that group until the latter stages.

Suzuki came into this weekend relaxed despite a mixed end to its pre-season. Reigning world champion Mir admitted he was only “70%” ready after testing, and confirmed on Friday he has cast Suzuki’s 2021 frame aside for now in favour of last year’s chassis. Rins’ 1m53.623s, which put him fifth fastest on Friday, suggests Suzuki has made a breakthrough in its qualifying form after the Spaniard tinkered with electronics settings.

But Mir was missing something down in 11th and currently out of Q2. This only increased his frustrations, as the consistency of his pace matches that of the best on Friday.

“Looking at the numbers and looking at today’s chart, it looks more like the Ducatis are the favourites. But nothing is set yet, so we should wait a little bit more into the weekend to predict something"Franco Morbidelli

“The truth is I am very pissed off today, being champion now on track is worth nothing,” Mir said. “I am calm because it is only the first day, it will be difficult to go [faster] in FP3 because it is very hot. If we have to go through Q1, we will go through it. What’s reassuring is that in terms of pace, I’m amongst the best. There were a few small things missing to improve, but I think we have the speed. It’s fixable.”

Honda has just three Qatar GP wins to its credit, the last of which coming all the way back in 2014. As new signing Pol Espargaro noted, Losail is not a “wow” circuit for HRC. And missing its prized asset in Marc Marquez, Honda’s hopes of ending this drought probably aren’t huge. Then again, former KTM rider Espargaro was just half a second off the pace on Friday and ended it with a smile on his face because he crashed.

He crashed in the test, but it wasn’t the Honda fall he was expecting. That came at the end of FP2 when he slid off his RC213V at the Turn 15 left-hander chasing a faster lap time. It was a crash he felt he ‘needed’, as now he understands the limit of the Honda’s front end more. Currently holding a place inside Q2, the likelihood of any combined time improvements in FP3 are remote, which should allow Espargaro to just focus on improving his riding style on the Honda rather than have to sacrifice some of his session to a pre-qualifying.

“I feel more the ball is in my court, it’s in my side,” he said. “It’s more my riding style that needs to be improved than the bike, because every time I’m pushing I [don’t] feel this control. I did not in the fast lap, I did not more than three laps in a row perfect. So, I could not match the corners, so this is small time I’m losing everywhere by being not in control, by not being ready of riding at this speed. This is a matter of laps and knowledge with this bike.”

Pol Espargaro, Repsol Honda Team

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

Espargaro struggled to 12th in the last Qatar GP while he was on the KTM, and those struggles for the Austrian marque have continued into 2021. Despite starting 2021 with a new engine, KTM didn’t fare well in the test and not one RC16 cracked the top 15 after Friday.

Both Brad Binder – who led the KTM charge in 16th, 0.984s off the pace – and Miguel Oliveira were convinced what the test showed of KTM wasn’t the reality. But it seems after Friday that KTM really is stuck in purgatory at this circuit, unable to get the RC16’s characteristics to match that of Losail’s.

“The main thing right now is we’re missing the speed when turning,” said Binder. “To go from up straight to full angle, it’s not going fast enough when on full angle. It makes it difficult to put on the power and get the bike up on the straights. We’re losing a little bit everywhere. If we can fix that we can go a long way, purely because we’re trying to make any straight a little bit longer so we can use full throttle more.”

In the 2019 Qatar GP, KTM was beaten by Aprilia. Aleix Espargaro was just under 10 seconds from the win in 10th, having taken one of Aprilia’s five top six MotoGP results in Qatar in 2017. After a strong showing in testing on the all-new RS-GP, Espargaro proved his form was no fluke, ending FP1 second and the day eighth – but feels he could have been higher up having encountered traffic on his final flying lap in FP2.

The bike has taken a small step forward from the test, and though he feels it’s too early to think about winning, Espargaro does at least feel he can dream big.

“Yes, on my side I’m fully confident that I can [fight for the podium]," he said. "I don’t know if I should say this, but I feel like I’m riding the bike super good and today when everybody was in 1m54s still at the start of [FP2], I put in 1m53.7s. So, yes, I feel I’m ready to fight at the top, but when you go to the race there are many things we have to discover.”

Pol Espargaro, Repsol Honda Team, MotoGP

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images