Why Mercedes isn't confident it's really ahead of Red Bull at Imola

Formula 1 practice sessions are rather different in 2021. It was known going into the season that a quarter of the overall practice running had been cut with the Friday sessions trimmed to one hour each, but just how they’d play out remained a mystery.

But after the opening practice running took place at Imola for the second Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, to sit alongside what was witnessed in Bahrain three weeks ago, a pattern is emerging.

In short, appropriately, the terser sessions are more eventful – particularly in the opening 15 minutes. The teams have the same number of tyre sets as they did before, but have no incentive to wait for track conditions to improve. So, they hit the track earlier with something of an explosion of on-track action. But this also makes the form book picture cloudier overall, as the long runs are shorter and there is more chance of disruption if things go wrong, as Charles Leclerc's late FP2 crash proved today.

The cold temperatures for this weekend’s event are also making things complex for the drivers as they have to work hard to get the tyres switched on correctly and then need to pay attention to avoid graining later in their stints. Plus, Imola’s ‘old-school’ nature means the slightest error is punished – again, as Leclerc proved when catching an oversteer snap through the second Rivazza corner sent him into the wall…

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF21, gets out of his car after going off

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

But it was far from doom and gloom for Ferrari, and the same can safely be said at Mercedes, which topped both sessions with Valtteri Bottas (FP2 order below).

Overall Emilia Romagna Grand Prix - FP2 order

The Black Arrows squad is looking an awful lot better than it did in Bahrain. The Sakhir circuit is the worst on the calendar for working the rear of the car hard – which creates a balance nightmare – thanks to the combination of its highly abrasive track surface and challenging layout.

At Imola today, both Mercedes drivers were feeling more comfortable in the W12 and its handling overall. The car balance appears to just be much better based on today’s runner – "happier" is how the team describes it.

Mercedes’ improvement can be put down to the work its engineers have done since Bahrain, the upgrades it has made to the W12 in that time, and the higher-grip Imola track suiting it better.

Mercedes’ trackside engineering director Andrew Sholvin says the team has "still not managed to get the grip out of the soft tyre on lap one so that's something we need to work on overnight"

"I also think the track has come a little bit more in our direction,” said Hamilton, who trailed Bottas in both sessions – the order in which they ended qualifying for the 2020 Imola event. “We started off with a really good set-up today, a few tweaks here and there but no major issues."

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But Bottas warns that while "the car feels better”, he reckons Mercedes still has “the same type of issues as in Bahrain, but less so."

Curiously the Mercedes drivers did not improve massively when bolting on the soft tyres in FP2, with Bottas' fastest time actually remaining the one he did on the mediums earlier in the session.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Mercedes’ trackside engineering director Andrew Sholvin says the team has "still not managed to get the grip out of the soft tyre on lap one so that's something we need to work on overnight". But it can be said that Mercedes was also rather coy on why that was overall, with a suggestion that its cars were not running in the same overall way when they were sent out on the softs for the mid-FP2 qualifying simulation runs something that hasn’t changed with the shorter practice sessions. This suggests it was trying something with its engine modes that it wanted to compare between the two tyre compounds.

But Mercedes is not satisfied that it's back to being F1's fastest package.

This is because the shorter practice running means the data gathered during the two sessions – especially FP2 – is correspondingly smaller and therefore less conclusive at this stage. Plus traffic at Imola was an issue for its drivers today.

But the main thing Mercedes is wary of is that Red Bull simply did not show anything like its true capability today thanks to its various issues.

Medium tyre order

Sergio Perez ended up as the only comparison from FP2 after Max Verstappen suffered a driveshaft issue during the early stages and the Mexican ended up only just adrift on the medium tyre long run averages (above).

Perez is still getting used to the RB16B – although he is of course one of F1's tyre management masters – but its logical to expect that Verstappen would've been ahead of his team-mate and therefore right there, if not ahead of, the Mercedes cars based on what we know so far in 2021. Equally, Mercedes could be ahead, but that cannot be said for certain.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

The same goes for overall pace, as Perez was sixth in the final FP2 standings and behind the Ferraris, with Verstappen's problem coming before he had done any real FP2 running and FP1 really remains about getting up to speed.

"The car felt alright in FP1 and it is difficult to say how the second session would have been, but we will still be able to look at the data and see what we can do better for tomorrow in terms of balance," said Verstappen.

"Of course it would have been better to have the session but I don’t think missing running in FP2 is the end of the world as we know what we need to do tomorrow. We just have to focus on ourselves and make sure we get the best out of our package."

"I think this has been one of our best Fridays as a team, I was so close to the top guys. I’ve felt good in the car since the first lap" Pierre Gasly

Another factor to consider when looking back at the day at Imola was how FP1 was impacted quite dramatically by the connectivity problems caused by a local fibre optic line failing at the circuit.

Mercedes lost all communication with its Brackley base, but has a fail-safe system that means the team could still run at the track and complete its programme. But it and the others still had no team-to-car radio communication – only the drivers could report to the team. This was cited as a factor in Perez's clash with Esteban Ocon at the Villeneuve chicane, which triggered FP1’s first red flag. Mercedes also lost TV pictures during FP1 but did have timing data and GPS tracking available.

Returning to the times, the battle behind the two leading teams looks shaken up yet again based on today's running. But the expected race tyre strategy means ‘Class A’ and ‘Class B’ need to be assessed together.

Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari SF21

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Essentially, it should be expected that Red Bull and Mercedes will try and get through Q2 on the medium tyres, as there is a 0.5s delta between that tyre and the softs. The best strategy from the 2020 is a one-stopper medium-to-hard approach – necessary because of Imola’s long pitlane.

It will therefore be very interesting to see which other teams try and get through Q2 on the mediums tomorrow. AlphaTauri did that in Bahrain – with Yuki Tsunoda showing impressive confidence in demanding the team let him try that on his first attempt, as he explained yesterday. But AlphaTauri couldn't see this choice pay off after Pierre Gasly's clash with Daniel Ricciardo eliminated him from contention and Tsunoda was knocked out in Q2 in any case.

AlphaTauri is an important consideration based on today's running – as is Ferrari.

It appears as if those two teams head the midfield and are barely behind Mercedes on pure pace. But this is slightly misleading as Autosport understands that on his best lap – which got deleted for running two wider and triggering a track limits infraction at Piratella – Leclerc gained 0.3s on Hamilton on the straights, which suggests his engine was turned up significantly in comparison with the Mercedes. The same can be said of Gasly, who was gaining 0.5s versus Hamilton when running the same tyres. That needs to be factored in – and differing fuel load could also have been playing a part – when looking at both the overall fastest times and the apparent order in the medium and soft tyre averages, where both Italian teams lead the way.

"I think this has been one of our best Fridays as a team – P4 this morning and P3 this afternoon, and I was so close to the top guys," said Gasly. "I’ve felt good in the car since the first lap and I managed to push pretty hard, as well as drive the way I wanted, so I think it’s been a successful day."

Pierre Gasly, AlphaTauri AT02, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The usual pecking order will play out at the head of the field come the sessions that matter – although it cannot be certain in what order as Mercedes’ clear uncertainty suggests.

But it does seem as if, on today's times at least, that McLaren was struggling compared to the leading midfield squads in practice. This is interesting as the team was also behind its rivals at Imola in 2020.

"I wouldn't say we're as confident as we were a couple of weeks ago," said Norris, who finished as the clear best-of-the-rest runner in Bahrain. "I don’t think we’re in a bad position, but we definitely have some work to do."

Soft tyre order

*N/A  Mercedes, Red Bull, Aston Martin, Haas

At Alfa Romeo, Kimi Raikkonen felt he couldn't string a lap together in the qualifying simulations today, but the team should take great encouragement from Antonio Giovinazzi's one-lap pace and its medium tyre average placing, although it fades badly on the soft averages (above).

There's currently a 60% chance that the race will be hit by a shower. But if it doesn't rain, it will likely be a classic tense Imola affair given the track’s narrow nature makes overtaking tricky, even with a longer DRS zone this time around

However, the wide time spread on that rubber suggests there was considerable fuel load differences across the midfield teams when using that rubber in the late FP2 long runs. These squads paid close attention to how the softs performed on long runs today as they are likely to need that tyre to make Q3 and therefore would have to use it to start the race.

Alpine is again hard to place based on its running today, although Fernando Alonso was "happy with the test items we put on the car and I felt an improvement in the performance".

Fernando Alonso, Alpine A521

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

Aston Martin is rather an unknown quantity too, but it remains well down the order on short and long-run pace compared to how it looked in 2020, which is surely why the team is getting so agitated about the rear floor rule changes. Sebastian Vettel at least felt the results of new aero pieces were "encouraging – especially in terms of my feeling in the car" and he reckons Aston "can be more competitive than in Bahrain".

Williams looks in good shape against the back of the midfield, with Nicholas Latifi impressing to the point that George Russell said he was "driving really well, probably the best I have seen him drive”. Russell added: “I need to improve quite a bit to close the gap to our competitors, and to Nicholas."

Haas remains routed to the bottom of the overall times and the VF-21 is still looking like a real handful, with Nikita Mazepin spinning off twice and crashing late in FP1, which meant he had to have a precautionary gearbox change and lost 20 minutes of FP2.

To summarise, things look very cagey at the front, which could set up a brilliant battle for the win on Sunday – if it stays dry. There's currently a 60% chance that the race will be hit by a shower. But if it doesn't rain, it will likely be a classic tense Imola affair given the track’s narrow nature makes overtaking tricky, even with a longer DRS zone this time around.

It's also worth noting again how critical qualifying is going to be for the race results if it is dry throughout. The extension of this point is that there will likely be further focus on track limits on Saturday. Leclerc lost what would've been FP2's fastest time due to going "a couple of centimetres" wide at Piratella, so expect this to be a big, if rather tedious talking point tomorrow.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images