What Mercedes must do to keep its F1 title challenge on track

“We’ve got a car that could win a championship…”

That’s what Mercedes thinks of its W12, the successor to what may well go down as one Formula 1’s best ever cars. But in 2021, Mercedes’ assessment comes with many caveats, despite the team currently leading the constructors’ championship ahead of Red Bull.  

Even with a three-week gap since the season-opening race in Bahrain, the situation as F1 sets up at Imola for round two is well known: Red Bull has the season’s fastest car so far, and Mercedes is under pressure. That stress exploded into scenes of joy when Lewis Hamilton unexpectedly beat Max Verstappen in the desert darkness, but such celebrations only came after the hard work the world champion squad had logged between testing and the first race.  

Mercedes was significantly hampered by its reliability issues and needless missed track time in testing, but it nevertheless made massive strides. This contributed to race one victory, but Verstappen’s Bahrain pole margin of 0.388 seconds (which could have been greater had he not damaged his floor earlier in qualifying) showcased the pure pace gap facing the Black Arrows.  

PLUS: The nightmare timing that now hinders Mercedes

Continuing his assessment of the W12, Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin says: “We’ve got a car that could win a championship if we make some clever decisions with it, do some good work with it and operate well over the year.” 

So, based on what we saw in Bahrain, here are 10 key changes Mercedes will surely be considering if it is to keep the team’s remarkable F1 success streak alive with the W12. 

Mercedes F1 team celebrates Bahrain GP victory

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Mercedes must... Solve the low-rake problem

It’s well known that, compared with the development upgrades allowed between seasons in normal years (and particularly when contrasted against the major regulations overhaul coming for 2022), the tweaks to car designs this year are tiny. But over the winter, Mercedes went out of its way to highlight how the rule changes – mainly the triangular cuts to the rear floors allied with the reduced diffuser strakes – could still have a major impact on car performance. Now that testing and race one have passed, it’s plain to see why.  

“We’ve probably suffered more with the change of regulations than the cars with the higher rake, and the Red Bull has followed that concept for many years,” says Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff. “So, it’s maybe more difficult for us to recover some of the lost downforce.” 

PLUS: How the 'Great F1 Rake-Off' delivered a Bahrain GP showdown

Mercedes’ low-rake aerodynamic philosophy, which has been a key part of its recent success, has clearly been hurt more by the floor changes than has the high-rake concept that Red Bull pioneered in the pre-turbo-hybrid era. That has taken a hit too, but the low-rake approach has possibly lost up to one second more.

Both Mercedes and Aston are stuck with this aerodynamic approach. And even if they wanted to go the other way, suspensions are now homologated in the 2021 regulations

Mercedes’ particular struggles are reinforced by the only other team that uses the low-rake concept. Racing Point (now Aston Martin) went from high-rake to low-rake with its ‘pink Mercedes’ RP20 last year, and it paid off handsomely. In Bahrain, Aston slipped back to having the seventh fastest car in 2021 after being third fastest last season, with the team railing against the impact the floor changes have had.

But both Mercedes and Aston are stuck with this aerodynamic approach. And even if they wanted to go the other way, suspensions are now homologated in the 2021 regulations.  

“Whether or not it’s high-rake or low-rake, we can’t do anything about that now,” says Shovlin. “What we certainly can’t do is suddenly say we’re going to lift the rear of our car 30mm and work with that, because that would write off the season. We would lose so much in doing that. To recover it, it’s just not practical.” 

Mercedes cannot raise its rake because that would have a severe knock-on effect for the rest of the W12, particularly around the front wing. The suspicion is that as the floor cutouts have removed the lengthy enclosed holes the teams were allowed to add before this year (which Mercedes used to seal the floor to act as an extended diffuser), their absence prevents the floor working as well as it did with the low-rake approach when it comes to boosting downforce. In comparison, the high-rake method did this by creating greater diffuser volume, and how it channelled the air disturbed by the rear wheels. 

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12,

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

But while Mercedes cannot just switch rake philosophy, it may be that it can at least improve the situation by further altering the scrolls on the floor edge that appeared in testing. Aston introduced an extra bank of fins to its floor for the Bahrain race – minor tweaks that Mercedes may also consider to reduce the impact of the lost floor space and its various slots and holes.  

The team could also make a significant breakthrough on its work with the new Pirelli tyres. If it can find a way to improve the different deformation characteristics new compounds inevitably introduce when it comes to the aerodynamic impact of the front wheels (as well as adapting the same impact at the rear), then it could recover downforce. And that simply means performance improvements.  

...Solve its high-speed corner gap to Red Bull

“We don’t really have any strengths relative to [Red Bull],” says Shovlin. “We’ve had a lot of years where we’ve been able to rely on straightline speed or high-speed cornering or interconnecting corners. But you look at it and we weren’t taking any time out of them [Red Bull] anywhere.  

“There were a couple of corners where they really took chunks out of us in qualifying: the high-speed [Turns 5/6/7] and also Turns 9/10 – they were very strong there. And that’s really the main thing. In qualifying we’re just bang on their pace in our best corners and they’re quicker in the others.” 

Shovlin’s explanation is tied into the impact of the new floor rules on the rake debate. The RB16B is able to keep a significantly more consistent balance through these corners – it was particularly noticeable how the Red Bull remained poised and flowing through Bahrain’s tricky Turns 9/10 complex. Here, the drivers must turn and slow from the first high-speed left into the much slower second, all after hitting a big bump on the way in. This part of the Bahrain track is infamous for minor errors and tyre-torturing lock-ups, but Verstappen looked utterly in control. 

The theory is that the RB16B is able to maintain its handling balance through such turns because the high-rake approach keeps the downforce-generating pressure better with the floor changes. 

PLUS: The themes to watch in F1’s Imola return

The next two venues that F1 visits – Imola and Algarve Circuit – feature high-speed sequences, double-apex turns and the high-to-low speed corners where Mercedes lost out in Bahrain. So perhaps this is why the team, says Shovlin, is hoping to “find circuits that do suit us more” as it works to address the W12’s high-speed shortcomings. That said, those two venues don’t have Bahrain’s abrasive surface, so Mercedes may find its rear handling improves as a result. 

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

...Gain at lower-speed venues

If Mercedes cannot match Red Bull at high-speed venues, then it must gain as much as it can at tracks where the corners are tighter and the average speeds lower. This is a rather extraordinary switch for the turbo-hybrid era, where previously Red Bull had to wait for tracks such as Monaco and the Hungaroring to bring its chassis strengths into play, with Mercedes’ power prowess pulling it clear at medium and high-speed circuits. 

The current 2021 calendar must always be read with a degree of scepticism – matched with hope – that it will take place as planned within the pandemic’s continuing awfulness. But as it stands, Imola and the Algarve Circuit will be followed by the Spanish Grand Prix at Barcelona before F1 heads back to the first venue not featured in 2020: Monaco. 

PLUS: How Verstappen's Bahrain mistake can only make him stronger

The near-laboratory status Barcelona has for F1 teams means it will be interesting to gauge the W12’s progress there, but Monaco is an altogether different circuit. And it’s one where Mercedes’ rivals in recent years have done rather well. Were it not for a slow Red Bull pitstop in 2016, Mercedes would have just one win from the past four Monaco GPs – the 2019 success that remains one of Hamilton’s best drives.

The more rapid run of events in the season’s scheduled second half will test the teams’ capacity for making car improvements by reducing the amount of time available to work through the data collected at each race

Mercedes is now the challenger and, with the Monaco course’s tight nature allied to its low average speed, there is every chance that this represents Mercedes’ best chance to win again based on the Bahrain showing. But the formbook could be different when/if F1 gets there. 

...Use the early calendar gaps well

The planned 2021 calendar is unbalanced. As it stands, up to the summer break following the Hungarian Grand Prix, there is a run of 11 races in 18 weekends, which is followed by 12 in 15 from Spa to Abu Dhabi. The biggest non-summer-break gap is the three weeks that have followed Bahrain to this weekend, after which there is another two-week gap before the Portuguese GP.  

As well as pushing F1 personnel extremely hard, the more rapid run of events in the season’s scheduled second half will test the teams’ capacity for making car improvements. It simply removes the amount of time available to work through the data collected at each race. The teams do have considerable computing power and resources to aid this, but there’s simply no substitute for time. 

In 2021, the teams can’t just upgrade their way out of trouble with new parts. All will therefore have to work as efficiently as possible, using the extra gaps in the season’s first half as best they can. But Mercedes has already proved that it can significantly improve the performance of what it already has. 

“There was a lot of work being done in the 10 days in between [testing and the Bahrain race],” summarises Wolff. “We found the path forward that makes the car more predictable.” 

Max Verstappen locks up trying to pass Lewis Hamilton in the 2019 Monaco GP

Photo by: Hasan Bratic / Motorsport Images

...Nail the 2022 switchover timing

The season’s compact nature may even make things easier for the teams when it comes to the unseen but vital element of the current campaign: competing in 2021 while working in tandem on the 2022 designs. Here, the early breaks between races may make it simpler for squads to choose putting more resources into the current cars before fully turning their base’s attention to 2022, and leaving the race teams to maximise what they can during the second half. 

Mercedes essentially did this last year by not developing the W11 from the end of August, but that car was the class of the field. If the team is not in a position to beat Red Bull by the summer break, then it would be a logical call to turn Brackley’s efforts fully onto the rules reset and see what its formidable race operation can still achieve.

It’s also worth remembering that the dual programmes must be completed under F1’s new cost-cap rules, which add an extra layer of complexity and force teams to be ever more efficient.  

Red Bull arguably has more to lose if 2021 is close. The team is just as keen to wave Honda off on the highest note as its soon-to-be-former engine builder. Deciding to go all in for this season, while sacrificing resources that could otherwise be spent on the 2022 car, would become an ever bolder call as the year passes, but Red Bull’s eight-year wait for a title may be more compelling when weighed against the seven consecutive title doubles Mercedes looks back upon. 

...Harmonise the energising factor of being behind

Mercedes is simply not going to give up its position as F1’s benchmark. While it might appear logical to shift resources towards next year once the critical switchover point arrives, the team will not accept defeat in 2021 without a fight, which Wolff is already making clear. 

“In a way, there is a feeling within the team that we very much enjoy the new circumstances,” he says. “It’s theirs to lose, ours to win, because when you have the quickest car, you have got to deliver on that. We have to catch up. We have to deploy our A-game and find more performance.” 

Toto Wolff, Executive Director (Business), Mercedes AMG, and the Mercedes team celebrate at the end of the race

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

That fierce competitive spirit, that unwillingness to concede defeat, is the reverse side of the well-used mantra that Mercedes has deployed to avoid complacency during its years of dominance: never resting on its laurels. Remember, this is the team that managed to make a major step with the W11’s innovations in a stable rules period. Yes, dual-axis steering and the adventurous rear-suspension layout were added in a year when regular design development was permitted, but such additions still meant that significant performance gains were made with a design philosophy that by 2020 was three seasons old.  

With no new parts, we can conclude that Mercedes’ progress in Bahrain was down to its team’s optimisation skills. The squad has clearly made significant progress on the W12’s balance, but neither Hamilton nor Valtteri Bottas are fully happy on that front

So, while there may only be so much Mercedes can do to increase the W12’s chances against the RB16B, the team has the people, resources and spirit to find whatever limit 2021 sets and still be very successful.

...Find the W12’s balance sweet spot

During the season opener, Mercedes openly admitted that its package was exactly the same as it had run in testing, with no updated parts on the W12. But the car’s handling, although really troublesome in testing, had got better as pre-season running progressed, and it was the same on the Bahrain race weekend.  

Come qualifying, Hamilton said he felt that the W12’s performance was “a really good step forward”, adding: “Coming into this weekend we thought it was double the gap [to Red Bull], and that’s really down to some really fantastic work from the men and women back at the factory and people here [at the track].” 

With no new parts, we can conclude that Mercedes’ progress was down to its team’s optimisation skills. The squad has clearly made significant progress on the W12’s balance, but neither Hamilton nor Valtteri Bottas are fully happy on that front – it remains too inconsistent. It also seems that the new tyres are a major factor in good car balance in 2021, and it’s highly likely that teams currently struggling with this will improve as the year goes on. 

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

...Ask if it has a start problem

The main reason why Bottas was not in the lead fight in the Bahrain Grand Prix before his long second stop was because he had fallen behind Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc on the first lap after making a slower getaway than Verstappen’s and Hamilton’s.  

That makes it three out of three of the most recent races in Bahrain where Bottas has lost positions on the first lap. And slow starts were a regular theme of his doomed title challenge to Hamilton last year. But the world champion also had times where he struggled at the start in 2020, notably at Mugello and Imola.  

It’s a minor note, but these unpredictable launches (even when one Mercedes is slow away, the other is generally rapid) could become really costly in a close title fight. Had Bottas been right with Verstappen and Hamilton in the opening stints in Bahrain – he improved from 0.2s per lap slower than the Red Bull after battling past Leclerc to just over 0.1s in the second stint – there’s every chance that Mercedes could have used the powerful Bahrain undercut to get both cars ahead of a faster rival with its aggressive strategy call. So, perhaps its start procedure needs adjusting considering how costly it could be in a close fight. 

...Find gains in unregulated areas

In fine-tuning its existing package within the areas that are strictly regulated in 2021 – the carryover requirements – Mercedes is well aware that it must exploit what it’s already got. 

“We’re having to look at more subtle areas to do with driveability characteristics,” says Shovlin. “Also, arriving at the circuit with the car well sorted, well balanced. Doing your homework, knowing how long the tyres will run. This championship is going to come down to the fine margins, more than normal.”

An extension of this approach will be about finding performance gains in the areas of the car that remain open for development, such as elements of the nose and non-crash-structure parts of the bodywork.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

...Make sure its guarded upgrades deliver

“We have spent our tokens, but we won’t reveal how we used them just yet,” said Mercedes technical director and soon-to-be chief technical officer James Allison at the W12’s launch. “That’ll become clear in good time.”

By not adding anything to its testing package for the first race, it appears as if Mercedes still has something to deploy. There has been speculation that this could be a new nose concept, something that likely would have used up both of the team’s 2021 development tokens.  

If Mercedes has gone down this route, it would tie right back in with the required work to claw back downforce with the air coming off the new tyres at the front of the W12 and the heavily analysed areas at the rear.  

The Black Arrows squad has demonstrated time and again that it can rise to another level, but in the current era it’s never really started on the back foot. Everything it tries to improve the W12’s package is critical to the 2021 tale, and the team knows it

But even if Mercedes’ closely guarded developments are added elsewhere to the W12, the team must be certain that they are going to deliver the expected performance gains. Here again comes the impact of the cost cap, as Mercedes has already highlighted how it will need to be more efficient and less wasteful by working its resources better. If anything goes wrong with any upgrades this year, it’s much harder to fix with the additional restrictions.  

Mercedes feels that the W12 is capable of winning the 2021 title. But if the team is to be successful in its attempt to extend its championship-sweeping run to an unprecedented eighth season, it’s going to have to do things differently this time around.  

The Black Arrows squad has demonstrated time and again that it can rise to another level, but in the current era it’s never really started on the back foot. Everything it tries to improve the W12’s package is critical to the 2021 tale, and the team knows it. 

“We’ve got to do better,” says Hamilton. “We’ve got to be smarter.”

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images