There are six races remaining in the 2021 Formula 1 season. As things stand ahead of this weekend’s United States Grand Prix, six points separate two of the championship’s best drivers. Only one of them will win the title, and it’ll either be a triumphant ending of an era or the glorious extension of one of F1’s most legendary tales.  

The battle between Red Bull and Mercedes, Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton, has ebbed and flowed throughout the season – rarely interrupted, rarely underwhelming. Looking back, the Bahrain season opener almost perfectly encapsulated the year’s rivalry, as the duo went toe to toe on behalf of their respective squads, well clear of the rest, the outcome decided, thrillingly, by the barest of margins.  

So, who will come out on top as the endgame approaches? Statistically F1’s greatest ever driver? Or the young pretender ready to topple the champion?

With the end in sight, we run down the critical factors that will most likely decide the ending of this F1 title fight for the ages. 

Hamilton and Verstappen have fought tooth and nail since the opening round of the season in Bahrain

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

1. The final updates push

There’s quite the debate going on now, ahead of F1’s rules revolution finally coming for 2022.

Some are asking: is the championship on the verge of scoring an own goal by allowing the field to – inevitably – spread out again under new technical rules, just when the grid is at its closest since 2012 and two teams scrap it out for every race win? But that is a slightly disingenuous take given the current world title fight, as great as it is, is the result of a unique situation. 

The cost-saving measures introduced to get the teams through the financial hit of the opening phase of the pandemic meant that 2021 is a season of making do with carryover car designs. Then there was the significant change to the rear floor rules, which hit Mercedes and fellow low-rake runner Aston Martin hardest. The 2021 rules allow for development of specific parts via a token system, but critically do permit continued aerodynamic development. 

On this, Red Bull and Mercedes diverged. The former has brought a steady stream of updates – at virtually every round during the season’s first half – while the latter has stuck to its tried-and-tested path of introducing major development steps at specific events. But Mercedes was adamant that this had a particular end point given the need to balance its 2022 car development programme, and so the bargeboards and sidepod changes introduced at July’s British GP were indeed its last big additions to the W12. 

But things haven’t stayed still as some expected. At Red Bull, the team has experimented considerably with rear-wing designs in the critical downforce/drag tradeoff (as Mercedes has too), which proved rather controversial in the opening rounds surrounding ‘flexi-wing’ complaints. 

After Hamilton’s pre-Silverstone comments that its final update package was “not going to close the gap enough”, Mercedes has continued to work on its current challenger. The team has been trialling a tweaked front-wing design in recent races – an attempt to gain an edge at the low-downforce tracks F1 will visit in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Then there’s Red Bull’s theory that Mercedes has made a gain in the power stakes, something the Black Arrows squad rebuffs. 

“Their straightline speed has taken a significant step recently and I think that whereas we could match them with smaller wings previously, now we can’t get near,” Red Bull team boss Christian Horner said last time out in Turkey.  

Red Bull struggled all weekend in Turkey, where Verstappen couldn't beat Bottas and had to settle for second

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Mercedes motorsport supremo Toto Wolff reckons it cannot be said “with an absolute conviction [that Mercedes now has a faster car]”, but he believes his squad has “a really good package now” as it has “gradually understood the car better”. 

"The more we run it, the more we drive, the more we could simulate situations, the better we have performed. We have pace and there are six plus one races to go [including the Brazil sprint], and where the car today is definitely in a better place than it was in the spring and the summer" Toto Wolff 

This is another theme of 2021 overall. Mercedes appeared well off the pace in pre-season testing, but engineered its way back into contention by fine-tuning the W12’s package. Red Bull pulled a clear gap in the second part of the season’s first half, as its wing work and the final Honda engine’s potency gave Verstappen an edge that pulled him well ahead.

Then came the Silverstone crash and Valtteri Bottas’s bowling in Hungary, which added to the points Verstappen had lost in the Baku blowout. How the final respective tweaks to the RB16B and the W12 go down in the upcoming final chunk of the campaign will be critical to the season’s ending. 

“The regulations that came in at the beginning of the year created a situation where you run the car where we haven’t been running in the last few years,” said Wolff, also speaking after Bottas’s Turkish GP win. “The more we run it, the more we drive, the more we could simulate situations, the better we have performed.  

“We have pace and there are six plus one races to go [including the Brazil sprint], and where the car today is definitely in a better place than it was in the spring and the summer.” 

Working to fine-tune set-ups, as Mercedes did in Turkey, could prove decisive

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

2. The teams nailing set-ups 

While Mercedes was able to work back towards Red Bull before the first race, it hasn’t always got the best out of a car it has always been clear is a title contender, just not the all-conquering machine of a year ago. In Monaco and Baku, the team’s struggles with tyre warm-up cost Hamilton considerably, although of course his second-start mistake was the main cause in not capitalising on Verstappen’s Azerbaijan misfortune.  

But not getting car set up correctly has also undone Red Bull. It had a balance problem in Hungary, not that it mattered given how the race that went to Esteban Ocon turned out, and most recently struggled to nail handling in Turkey. There, Horner admits his team was “out the window” from the off regarding the water-blasted, rougher track surface.  

Mercedes hit the ground running thanks to its simulator preparation, but it also reckons it hit something of a sweet spot on the critical tyre-temperature operating window. This helped Hamilton rise from his grid penalty and Bottas defy Verstappen. 

“One of our engineers spoke about the tyres as being in a sort of Goldilocks place – not too hot, not too cold – on an asphalt that is particularly picky,” said Mercedes chief technical officer James Allison after the Turkey race. 

“We knew we were very strong, but we also knew that the margins between this strength and being more average were quite slender. A few degrees here or there and we could have been out of the Goldilocks zone on the hot or the cold side. So, it was a very good performance.

“The car was very well balanced, we didn’t seem to suffer as much from the understeer that was fairly prevalent up and down the pitlane. But I don’t think you could read that automatically into the races to come.” 

Getting the decisions that impact car handling and tyre operation right or wrong – for either team in the final rounds – is always vital. But it could just be that a championship depends upon it. Look at Mercedes in the 2020 Abu Dhabi season finale – its unexpected underperformance on the soft tyres in qualifying let in Verstappen, and he never looked back… 

Verstappen was victorious in Mexico in 2018, but Hamilton triumphed in 2019 after an early clash with the Dutchman that damaged his floor

Photo by: Manuel Goria / Motorsport Images

3. The upcoming circuits favouring one or the other 

The last six races are intriguingly split in terms of which tracks may favour one or the other title-contending team. At Austin this weekend, F1 arrives at a track where Mercedes – and Hamilton in particular – has been dominant. But so far in 2021, Red Bull has been able to overturn the formbook at previous Mercedes strongholds Paul Ricard and Silverstone (considering Verstappen’s sprint race win). 

Saudi may be more likely to favour Red Bull given its dominance on a similar fast street-circuit setting in Baku. But that was back in June and, as we’ve covered, updates could of course change all of this…

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Mercedes now must hope it can succeed at two tracks where Red Bull has been the team to beat in recent years: Mexico City and Interlagos. In both races, but mainly the former, altitude is the critical factor as Mercedes’ turbo does not operate as well as Honda’s jet-engine-inspired design. Plus, thinner air means Red Bull doesn’t have to worry as much as normal when it comes to trimming out drag.  

Then there are two unknowns – F1’s first forays to Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

The first new event, the Losail track that ends 2021’s final triple-header, is surely likely to play to Mercedes’ strengths given it’s a MotoGP venue with little super-high-speed stuff. Yet the latter may be more likely to favour Red Bull given its dominance on a similar fast street-circuit setting in Baku. But that was back in June and, as we’ve covered, updates could of course change all of this…

Hamilton blasted his team over Turkish GP pit call - after it abandoned risky gambit of awaiting a switch over to slick tyres

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

4. Getting critical strategy calls right

Red Bull got the maximum result it could in Turkey after it couldn’t hold onto Mercedes thanks to its set-up deficit, but its double podium behind Bottas was in real danger. First, Hamilton could have pulled off a stunning win had conditions improved as he was hoping.

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But while that was always a long shot – just as holding off Sergio Perez and Charles Leclerc on a no-stopper would have been – if he had pitted when Bottas and Verstappen did (or just after) then there’s every chance he’d have got through the intermediate tyre’s graining phase and climbed to third.  

Mercedes knows with hindsight’s benefit that a higher result than fifth was possible, even if it also backs its calls to try to get an even better result – as Verstappen did during his own engine-change grid-penalty recovery in the Russian GP. 

“The whole season swings back and forth,” Wolff said of Hamilton’s Istanbul Park strategy, where both team and driver sought to downplay the fractious radio disagreement that played out, all said in an intense racing scenario and within the wider context of a pressured title fight.

“This one was a very close call. We decided for one thing, and it went wrong. At the end we’ve lost eight points from Red Bull from a grid penalty, and Red Bull [in Russia] were happy with a seven-point loss. So, it’s going to be very tight until the end. DNFs are going to make a big difference.” 

Red Bull has had pitstops go wrong since the technical directive to reduce automation in procedures was introduced at Spa. This was very costly to Verstappen as he chased Daniel Ricciardo at Monza, but the team bounced back well in Turkey. It also committed to the best strategy in changing inters when it did, even if that allowed Bottas to simply cover it and defend the race lead.  

Verstappen recovered well from Sochi grid penalty to take rain-assisted second

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

There’s definitely too much being made of the Turkish GP radio exchange between Hamilton and Mercedes, but that still represents a tiny seed of doubt that neither needs at this crucial moment.  

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And then there’s the reliability factor Wolff mentions. The question is: which team has got it right, and will adding those extra parts to their overall engine pools be enough when parts are being pushed harder for longer than ever before? It’s a record-breaking year, and in a two-horse race compromises with lower engine modes can’t be made, as Mercedes could afford to do in 2020.  

Honda is adamant that Verstappen can now see the season out with no further grid penalties, but Mercedes has considerable concerns. There have been repeat pneumatic pressure problems at customer squad Williams, while the all-new engine that Bottas took at Monza had to be sent back to Brixworth to be checked after an issue was detected following practice in Russia.

Not only has Bottas scored 69% of Hamilton’s points total (versus Perez’s 51% of Verstappen’s haul) this season but, since it was announced that he would be replaced by George Russell for 2022, the soon-to-be-Alfa Romeo (or possibly Andretti) driver has the most points of any racer

Mercedes is monitoring “unusual noises”, says Wolff, on its internal combustion engines, and so Hamilton may yet need another one to get through to the Abu Dhabi finale. The small silver lining is that a fifth ICE would only mean a five-place grid drop. Mercedes simply cannot afford another fiery Malaysia malady, such as arguably cost Hamilton the 2016 title to Nico Rosberg. 

“It’s tricky when you start to push the boundaries with power-unit performance,” says Wolff. “At a certain stage you will experience some obstacles. Our power units have been the most reliable since the introduction of the hybrid engines in 2014. 

“Because these boundaries are being pushed, we have seen examples of, let’s say, unusual noises within the combustion engine that aren’t completely understood yet and therefore caused some trouble in the past. We had engines that basically failed, and now it’s about containing the problem, because in that phase [the end of a season], redesigning parts is not something you would tackle.” 

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, 1st position, celebrates with his team in Parc Ferme

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

5. The team-mate factor

Perez finally backed up Verstappen in Turkey with his incredible defence against Hamilton, but he needs to be right with his team-mate in every qualifying session and race from now on. Yes, the Mexican has been unlucky in the events leading up to Istanbul Park, but he’s also not helped himself by repeatedly qualifying down the order.  

PLUS: Why Perez won't be broken by his latest F1 disappointments

The AlphaTauri drivers could also be a helpful factor for Red Bull, with Yuki Tsunoda driving with Verstappen’s title push in mind against Hamilton last time out. This was because he wants “Max to win in the last year of Honda, and for Red Bull as well”, which meant he “tried to hold Lewis up as much as possible”. 

At Mercedes, not only has Bottas scored 69% of Hamilton’s points total (versus Perez’s 51% of Verstappen’s haul) this season but, since it was announced that he would be replaced by George Russell for 2022, the soon-to-be-Alfa Romeo (or possibly Andretti) driver has the most points of any racer.

The Finn has spoken about Mercedes’ driver line-up decision “relaxing” him since he no longer has to think about off-track stuff.  Bottas can be counted on to back up Hamilton as well as he ever has, with Wolff reckoning his Turkey redemption win “may not be his last this season”.

Verstappen really needs Perez to take points off Hamilton to aid his cause. 

“His defence with Lewis [in Istanbul] was exactly what we would expect,” Horner says of Perez. “It’s been coming for a little while, but I think this is a great shot of confidence for him as we’re now approaching the very important part of the championship.”

Hamilton was fortunate that a red flag allowed him to make up for his off at Tosa and finish second at Imola

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

6. Title-fight experience 

This is possibly the most intriguing factor at play over the title run-in – how will the contenders handle the pressure best? Both have made mistakes. But, other than being more at fault for the dramatic Monza crash, Verstappen’s errors have been smaller, and it can be argued that Hamilton’s 2021 mistakes (the Imola off, Baku, clipping the pitlane wall in Sochi qualifying) have been bigger and highly unusual unforced errors compared to his previously bulletproof overall displays.  

Again, that’s a sign of how hard this title battle is – and it’s the same with the pitstops/strategy/set-up errors that have crept in at both squads. But Hamilton can at least fall back on the seven world titles he’s already won and recall his 2018 triumph in particular – he and Mercedes beat the Ferrari/Sebastian Vettel package that had been faster for much of that campaign.

"It’s not going to be easy, but so far we’ve had a really good year so it’s not going to change the world for me if we finish first or second at the end of the day" Max Verstappen

When it came to making key overtaking moves in the wet Turkey race, he approached these with the championship firmly in mind. It was his approach from the start, but could be seen best at the end of that thrilling battle with Perez.  

“I don’t feel any pressure,” Hamilton said after losing the title lead to Verstappen last time out – the fifth time the points lead has changed hands in 2021. “I’m very chilled. I don’t like losing points, but that’s just the way it is.” 

Verstappen, meanwhile, without a single car-racing title to his name, is unproven. While he’s been supremely fast this year, there have been rash moments – most notably after that long pitstop had dropped him out of the lead battle and into Hamilton’s orbit at Monza. He appears to be very relaxed, but comments he made in Turkey sounded alarmingly like he’s resigned to defeat, even after his second place to Bottas had edged him back ahead.

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“They were definitely quicker,” Verstappen concluded. “We just didn’t get it together and also in the wet they seemed to have a bit of the edge as well. I definitely do think they probably stepped it up a bit more. Even with the points, it’s not going to be easy, but so far we’ve had a really good year so it’s not going to change the world for me if we finish first or second at the end of the day.  

Stewards deemed Verstappen predominantly culpable for clash with Hamilton at Monza that took both out

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

“But I’m always going to give my best and we’ll see again in Austin how it’s going to go. We won’t give up, we’ll always try to do the best we can and hopefully, of course, at the end of the championship it’s going to be enough. But if it isn’t, I’m not going to sleep less.” 

Now, this isn’t necessarily Carlos Reutemann 1981 territory just yet – although that is a prescient example of how a driver downplaying their chances can play out badly – but it perhaps reflects the reality of the title fight’s balance. And it isn’t overwhelmingly positive for Red Bull.  

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Since that Silverstone update, Mercedes has been much improved. While Verstappen scored a famous home win at Zandvoort and stole a march in the Spa farce thanks to his brilliant pole, Hamilton’s team has either been ahead or at least level-pegging with Red Bull.

There have been no more Austrian GP-like walkovers from Verstappen, while the layouts of the six tracks F1 has visited after Silverstone have swung things around and often away from the W12s. Mercedes also squandered its considerable advantage at Monza. 

That’s not to say that the 2021 title race is now a foregone conclusion – far from it. In fact, Hamilton’s 2018 triumph should provide just as much inspiration to Verstappen as it does for the Briton.

That is, really, a wonderful conclusion for where things stand right now: that one of F1’s two top drivers could be on the verge of achieving something truly special. The winner will still need the standout factors to go their way, but one of these true greats can make the ultimate difference.

Verstappen and Hamilton battle could swing either way

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images