What Verstappen is risking with his current stance on 2021 F1 world title defeat

"So far, we’ve had a really good year, so it’s not going to change the world for me if we finish first or second at the end of the day."

Max Verstappen spoken these words in the post-race press conference at the 2021 Turkish Grand Prix, after he’d been soundly beaten by Mercedes driver Valtteri Bottas in the wet conditions at Istanbul Park.

PLUS: Why F1's approach to grid penalties undermines drivers

While that result was something of a surprise given Verstappen’s wet-weather prowess, as he acknowledged at the time, the Dutchman had already expressed the same nonchalant-sounding view on his chances of winning his ultra-close battle with Lewis Hamilton for the 2021 crown three days earlier.

But, after the Istanbul race, Verstappen leads the drivers’ standings by six points over his Mercedes rival. He’s back in front of a battle he’d been commandingly winning at one stage – Verstappen’s 32-point advantage leaving Austria is the largest margin between the contenders all year – and the championship’s end is in sight. Plus, Hamilton faces considerable worries about reliability.

So, why is Verstappen saying this? And why does it suddenly sound like he’s preparing the ground for defeat in a title fight that has captivated F1?

Let’s start with the state of the Red Bull vs Mercedes machinery contest as it stands right now. Red Bull has had the best package for much of the season, as its eight wins and poles (to Mercedes’ six and five) attest but, since Verstappen’s dominant display on home soil at Zandvoort, it has been the Black Arrows squad that has clearly had the upper hand.

Much of this comes down to specific track layouts suiting one package or the other more. Zandvoort’s higher-downforce demands favoured the RB16B, but the straights and absence of high-speed corners at Monza and Sochi favoured Mercedes, which then nailed the critical set-up work on the reworked Turkish asphalt.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Red Bull suspects Mercedes has made gains with its engine, which Mercedes denies. But, since its Silverstone aerodynamic update, there can be no doubt that the W12 has been considerably better than it was in the spring and Mercedes has continued its excellent work in honing what it has already produced.

It has squandered chances, but Mercedes appears to be in the ascendancy right now. Perhaps Verstappen is responding to this reality.

Verstappen is very relaxed and assured in himself – and this can be seen in his words.

His joking reply that he felt “so nervous I can barely sleep!” after Hamilton’s comments on how he thought his rival was coping with a first F1 title tilt in the aftermath of their Monza shunt is good evidence of just how unfazed he is by the ever-growing circus following this title fight. After all, the Dutchman was speaking after a race where he was at fault for a collision that eliminated a rival in the full glare of F1’s spotlight – but he didn’t crack.

What we can learn from Verstappen’s words, spoken in Sochi, is how he tries to deal with a relatively high-pressure environment. There, he downplayed it and moved on. It’s been a theme of his year, and this is mostly what is happening when he speaks about victory or defeat against Hamilton not changing his life. He said as the Istanbul weekend was getting underway: “I always do my best and I know that the team is also doing the best they can.

The 2021 fight also hands Verstappen what could be a sole chance at history: to be the driver that ends a legend. If Hamilton wins and walks away – which could happen, however unlikely, as Nico Rosberg showed in 2016 – that chance is gone forever

“And if that’s going to be first at the end of the year – that’s of course an amazing achievement and that’s what we work for, right? But, even if we would finish second, I think we’d still have had a great season. And, at the end of the day, it’s not really going to change my life.”

But Verstappen can get rattled when things go against him. Consider his terse replies to engineer Gianpiero Lambiase after Red Bull’s long pitstop at Monza took him out of victory contention, or indeed his explosive response to questioning about further crashes with Hamilton following their Silverstone collision – an incident when the Briton was at fault. Verstappen cares – he’s not just turning up, doing his best and hoping it all works out.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, and Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, collide

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

But there’s risk to the stance he adopted in Turkey - sentiments he has already echoed ahead of this weekend's US GP - and it will be interesting to see if Verstappen sticks to the same line at Austin. His public utterances to questions about his run of mistakes in early 2018 suggest he won’t back down in front of the media, but that year he clearly changed his approach and was all the better for it. The difference now is that the risk his position presents is an ‘on-stage’ one alone.

The danger is that, after hearing words that suggest he doesn’t care, on some level something might drop – either subconsciously in Verstappen himself or somewhere in the Red Bull organisation. The opposite could be true, that Verstappen actually knows this approach is the best way to avoid slip ups – by trying to keep everyone as relaxed as he is. But in most major sports organisations, public hyper confidence in the outcome of a contest is the route taken. And it’s one that works.

The final element at play here is that Verstappen is also incorrect to say defeat this season would change nothing for him.

First of all, this could be his one shot. His supreme abilities make this unlikely, but one cannot rule out the unexpected – even the shocking and tragic that might stop him racing again.

Then there’s the 2022 rules reset, which many F1 insiders are suggesting could lead to one squad seizing a commanding advantage – the opposite of what the championship is going for with the new cars. It could be Red Bull, or Mercedes – with the return to a ground-effect formula potentially able to give Mercedes an edge given its familiarity with a low-rake aero concept in recent years – or another team entirely.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The 2021 fight also hands Verstappen what could be a sole chance at history: to be the driver that ends a legend.

Hamilton’s run to six titles in seven years with Mercedes outstrips Michael Schumacher’s haul with Ferrari at the turn of the millennium and the driver that ended that partnership’s run, Fernando Alonso, is rightly lauded as a result. If Hamilton wins and walks away – which could happen, however unlikely, as Nico Rosberg showed in 2016 – that chance is gone forever.

This almost certainly doesn’t matter to Verstappen. Or it's at least not something he’d admit to publicly. Which makes it all the more odd that he’s making statements that sound as if he’s starting to accept an eventual defeat over this season’s ultimate prize.

Verstappen has been the better of the two title contenders so far this year. He has made mistakes, but they’ve been smaller than Hamilton’s. Now he needs to lead Red Bull to glory with everything he’s got, which surely includes not handing his rival even the hint of an off-track edge.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, second position, in parc ferme

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images