Mercedes is confounding its own expectations

Mercedes was nervous coming into the Singapore Grand Prix weekend. Although this team has undisputedly dominated Formula 1 for three straight seasons, there were genuine concerns about its potential form on the Marina Bay circuit, thanks to a woeful performance here 12 months ago.

Back then Mercedes endured an anomalous struggle in the middle of an otherwise peerless run of form, the only time it has been defeated on pure pace alone throughout a GP weekend under these V6 hybrid turbo F1 regulations.

Lewis Hamilton trailed Daniil Kvyat's pacesetting Red Bull by more than three tenths of a second after Friday practice here in 2015, and Mercedes went backwards on the Saturday as it failed to get the super-soft tyre into the correct working temperature range.

As Ferrari and Red Bull ramped up their pace, Mercedes was found wanting. Hamilton was 1.120 seconds off the pace in final practice and 1.415s down after qualifying. He didn't finish the race, but team-mate Nico Rosberg could do no better than fourth, 24.720s off Sebastian Vettel's winning Ferrari.

That equated to a 0.405s per lap deficit over the course of a 61-lap race. But that race featured two safety car periods, so Rosberg's actual deficit was closer to a second per lap to the winning car.

Such lack of pace was bizarre for a team that has failed to win only seven of the 52 races held under the current generation of technical regulations, especially when you consider all but one of those defeats has occurred because of self-destruction or uncontrollable circumstances, rather than any lack of outright speed.

Singapore is the only place Mercedes has looked utterly at sea, so perhaps it was no surprise to hear Rosberg playing down his team's chances on this circuit, suggesting it would probably again favour Red Bull and Ferrari.

"It's a steep weekend for us," he reiterated ahead of Friday practice this year. "It's going to be a special challenge as we need to get everything 100% right to be able to challenge Ferrari and Red Bull.

"There were reasons why we were off the pace [last year]. We understand some of them, we made some major changes, we hope to be looking a lot better, but is it enough to turnaround a one-second deficit per lap that we had last year? It won't be an easy one."

Certainly Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo came into this weekend hoping a circuit that has been kind to him over the years would present him with a genuine shot of taking the fight to Mercedes.

After all he grabbed pole in Monaco earlier this year, the only time Mercedes hasn't been able to take top spot on the grid in 2016.

That was a street circuit with a similar nature to this one, where engine power (Mercedes' biggest strength) counts for less, where high downforce and form in low-speed corners (Red Bull's biggest strength) counts for more, and where Pirelli first employed the new ultra-soft tyre, which Mercedes struggled slightly to get the most from in Monte Carlo.

"It's obviously the next closest track to Monaco, so we look at it as a good chance to get the victory I've been after this season," said Ricciardo, who would have won in Monaco without a pitstop blunder that handed the race to Hamilton.

"Since Monaco a lot of things have been working better. Let's see."

Things were working well for Red Bull in the first practice session on Friday. Ricciardo and team-mate Max Verstappen led the field, the only two drivers to clock lap times below 1m46s, putting Red Bull over four tenths clear of the fastest Ferrari and six ahead of Hamilton's Mercedes.

But Mercedes set its quickest times of that session on the soft compound tyre, whereas Verstappen, Ricciardo and Kimi Raikkonen made extra runs on the ultra-soft, which made direct comparison difficult.

When all three top cars were circulating on the ultra-soft at similar points in the session, they all lapped on the same tenth.

That suggested things were potentially quite close at the front. But the second session would give a clearer indication, as full darkness descended and conditions became cooler and more representative of those teams will face in qualifying and in Sunday's race.

On the evidence of this session Mercedes looks favourite again. Rosberg lapped 0.275s clear of Kimi Raikkonen's Ferrari, with the best of the Red Bulls, driven by Verstappen, a further 0.105s further back.

PURE PACE RANKING

1. Mercedes (Rosberg) 1m44.152s
2. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m44.427s
3. Red Bull (Verstappen) 1m44.532s
4. Force India (Hulkenberg) 1m45.182s
5. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m45.507s
6. McLaren (Alonso) 1m45.779s
7. Haas (Gutierrez) 1m46.727s
8. Williams (Massa) 1m46.856s
9. Renault (Magnussen) 1m47.161s
10. Sauber (Nasr) 1m47.531s
11. Manor (Wehrlein) 1m48.505s

The Force India again looks relatively strong back on a street circuit featuring lots of sharp changes of direction, while Toro Rosso also looks to be back on form - despite being none the wiser about its misbehaving new aero package - at a circuit that penalises drag and a lack of power far less than recent venues.

McLaren-Honda will need to find a set-up that works the tyres better if it wants to challenge Force India and STR to be fourth best here, while the updated Haas and Williams (never a great performer in Singapore) will need to find better balance and big chunks of time to challenge for Q3.

Manor looks a bit lost on a circuit where downforce is king, slipping to the back of the field after recently challenging the lower midfield.

Downforce is not a concern for Mercedes, which has not become the best team in Formula 1 because it stands still and just accepts it might just be no good on certain tracks. Plenty of work went into understanding exactly why it couldn't get the Pirelli tyres working well here last year.

Hamilton suggested ahead of the weekend that it had set-up solutions in place to prevent a repeat of that 2015 disaster, and so far it seems those solutions are working.

Red Bull and Ferrari aren't far behind, but they are behind nevertheless, on a circuit at which they were both ahead at this same stage last season.

"I'm not discouraged with the pace," countered Ricciardo, who looked good to be challenging Rosberg for top spot before dropping a chunk of time in the final sector of his best lap. "Where we are is pretty good considering where I feel we can be with the car.

"We just probably got a bit too hard into the tyres. The ultra-soft is a funny one - it's not so straightforward as the super-soft. You think you've got the grip and then it sorts of goes away.

"My first two sectors were good, but in the last I lost quite a lot. It's still a bit tricky to understand. It was a bit scrappy, so I'm sure there are some things I can help with there.

"I feel there's a lot more we can get out of it, and if we find that then we will be looking alright, but it's close."

BEST SECTOR TIMES

            S1       S2       S3     Full lap
Mercedes  27.874s  40.071s  36.207s  1m44.152s
Red Bull  28.014s  39.970s  36.337s  1m44.321s
Ferrari   28.006s  40.282s  36.139s  1m44.427s

Had Ricciardo been able to match team-mate Verstappen in the third sector he would have been second fastest, comfortably within two tenths of Rosberg.

Both Red Bull drivers head into final practice and qualifying with the added benefit of an engine upgrade that Renault estimates to be worth 0.1-0.2s around this track.

It's certainly looking like a tight fight, but Mercedes still holds a slender advantage and that represents a massive gain at this track compared to 12 months ago.

What we don't know is how fast Hamilton can go, after a disastrous second practice session for the reigning world champion.

He couldn't get a lap together during his qualifying simulation run on the ultra-soft tyre, so ended up slower than Nico Hulkenberg's Force India.

Hamilton then suffered a hydraulic problem that curtailed his session before he could complete any long runs.

"Fortunately there's two cars, so as long as one car gets to do some running it's OK," reckoned Hamilton, who said his Mercedes was easily fixed by swapping a valve.

"We knew straight away when we went out that the car's a lot different compared to last year. Last year we were sliding around a lot, had really low downforce. This weekend we've got a lot of downforce. That's positive.

"We are in a much different position. We are quick. It looks like it could be close between the Ferraris and us, but it's looking good."

But perhaps not quite so wonderful over those longer runs that Rosberg managed. He was slowest of all the top runners on the ultra-soft.

Vettel and Verstappen's longer runs were too short to be representative, though, with Vettel completing just two flying laps before diving back into the pits to fit softs, while Verstappen did three very fast laps consecutively before a sequence of very slow ones.

However, both Ricciardo's Red Bull and Raikkonen's Ferrari did decent stints on the ultra soft. Raikkonen's pace was very up and down, but he averaged 1m50.017s over seven laps on the ultra-soft.

Ricciardo was more consistent in lapping at an average pace of 1m49.920s over five laps. Rosberg could only manage an average time of 1m50.466s over six laps.

"We have learned a few lessons from last year but it's early days," cautioned Rosberg. "Let's wait and see, keep on working and hope it will be enough to give Ferrari and Red Bull a run for their money, because here is for sure their best track.

"They were quick today, also Ferrari in the long runs. We still have work to do. We need to be careful, do the best we can and not get ahead of ourselves.

"Last year on Friday we were looking OK and then Saturday we were nowhere, so let's wait and see."

On the face of it Mercedes looks to have banished the demons of Singapore 2015, but Rosberg is probably right to be cautious. Things can turn around so quickly here, on a tricky track where a driver's rhythm and confidence, combined with how the car works these difficult and delicate tyres over a full lap, makes all the difference.

Last year Vettel looked a bit lost on Friday, but hit form in Saturday practice and never looked back en route to claiming pole by over half a second and then winning the race.

The four-time world champion will have to pull another rabbit out of his proverbial hat this year, after struggling to get a lap together in practice two and ending up more than seven tenths adrift of team-mate Raikkonen.

Red Bull boss Christian Horner reckons Vettel himself is worth three tenths around this place, where only he, Hamilton and Fernando Alonso have ever tasted the victory champagne.

The German has won here four times, and will need to rediscover that special affinity with Singapore overnight to have a chance of toppling Mercedes from the head of the heap.

Vettel suggested ahead of the weekend that Mercedes would still be favourite to win this race, despite last season's struggles. It's looking like a close-run thing, but on the evidence of Friday's practice running his prediction looks pretty accurate so far.