Is this Red Bull’s best chance to beat Mercedes?

The 2008 Formula 1 season is now a very long time ago. Since that campaign ended, only two teams have won the drivers’ and constructors’ titles. One, as Brawn GP, picked up the championship double in 2009, the year after McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari had split the honours. The other dominated the next four campaigns, and since then the bought-out former Brawn squad has swept every championship.

In 2021, overall triumph for McLaren and Ferrari, or any of the crowded midfield, seems unlikely at best. Once again, Mercedes (formerly Brawn) and Red Bull are set to do battle. But, having been soundly beaten for the past seven years, Red Bull is heading into F1’s latest campaign with perhaps its best chance of finally defeating Mercedes and reclaiming the crowns it last won in 2013. Such a turnaround is far from certain though, and both squads are playing up each other’s chances.

“I don’t see myself as the favourite at all,” Red Bull’s Max Verstappen told Dutch TV station Ziggo Sport, despite topping pre-season testing in Bahrain two weeks ago. “I still see Mercedes as the favourite.”  

“I would say Red Bull are ahead on performance, they are the class act from the test,” says Mercedes race strategy chief James Vowles. “I think we are going to have a close championship this year.”

The reason why the 2021 pre-season-favourite tag is so disputed is because testing went so differently for each team. It could be flippantly argued that they appear to have swapped places in terms of car handling compared to 2020. Where Mercedes was once utterly secure on track, it now looks unpredictable, and the previously recalcitrant Red Bull is “planted”, as observed by Vowles. 

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes and Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes look at the Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Giorgio Piola

Mercedes’ test got off to a bad start when it lost essentially the entire opening session to a gearshift problem as Valtteri Bottas conducted his initial installation lap. That in itself is no bad thing – testing remains the ideal time for reliability concerns to crop up – but it was the time lost overall that hurt Mercedes. The reigning champion squad lost one sixth of 2021’s much reduced pre-season testing time in one fell swoop, and that meant it had even less time to sort out the handling issues that soon became apparent.  

Testing’s first afternoon/evening session in Bahrain took place in strange conditions as a sandstorm swept over the Sakhir venue. Lewis Hamilton – in for the second session, as Mercedes swapped drivers after a half day each across the three-day test – was quickly and notably struggling when it came to the W12’s rear handling.

“It was quite impressive to see how much sand there was actually that came in – behind the cars you saw it kind of swirling around everywhere, but it was surprising it didn’t actually set the lap times back a lot further,” says Mercedes trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin.

Hamilton was back in the Mercedes for the second morning when the team’s second big problem of testing occurred – the world champion spun off going through the tricky Turn 13 right-hander and became beached in the gravel

“The wind was a problem and we had wondered before whether the sand would actually significantly affect the tyre grip, but that didn’t seem to be too bad, so it was surprising how much useful work we could do on the afternoon of day one. But the generally windy conditions are quite tricky.” 

The wind made things more complicated for the teams on the second day, when it switched 180 degrees to blow a headwind down Bahrain’s main straight. Hamilton was back in the Mercedes for the second morning when the team’s second big problem of testing occurred – the world champion spun off going through the tricky Turn 13 right-hander and became beached in the gravel. It’s conceivable that a crosswind gust unsettled the W12 enough to send its rear looping around, but it was a shocking development considering how smoothly Mercedes’ recent pre-seasons have gone. 

Things definitely improved from there. When Bottas took over from Hamilton for the rest of the second day, he matched his team-mate’s lap total for that middle day, and carried on looking steady enough as Mercedes concentrated on the high-fuel data gathering in the final morning session.  

But Hamilton’s spin on the softest C5 tyres as he prepared to enter Verstappen’s qualifying simulation duel with Yuki Tsunoda as testing’s final chequered flag approached undid plenty of reassuring hours. His rapid 360 booting the W12 out of the final corner to start a flying lap again showed how unsettled the car was in testing. It was essentially the final impression Mercedes made, and meant it heads into the new season on a negative note.  

The car of Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, is loaded onto a flat bed truck

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

“It was pretty evident from [the TV images] that the car was handling poorly, and conversely the Red Bull in fact looked what we would call planted, but it was a very stable car especially through the last sector of the lap,” says Vowles. “And I think that’s a fair observation. It was visible to the outside and I would say the lap times mirrored that as well. But it’s also fair to say that we don’t have answers [immediately] after the end of the test.” 

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“The wind made it tricky,” adds Shovlin. “When the wind is behind the car you lose a lot of downforce, because effectively the air speed is reduced so some corners where the wind was behind, it was prone to doing that. And then also the tyres are quite easy to overheat on that circuit, and if you start sliding you tend to lose grip and it gets worse. So, there are a few problems.  

“Now, importantly we could see that some of our competitors weren’t struggling in the same way as us, so we need to put quite a focus on understanding why the rear end was a bit weak, how we can get it more stable and predictable, and that work is going on now. Hopefully when we get to the race weekend it won’t be so difficult for the drivers, because they were having to work pretty hard to do the lap times that they were doing.”   

The wind factor at the Bahrain track should not be underestimated – it certainly caught out plenty of drivers across the two events held at the end of last season. But it could be something more tangible that is causing Mercedes concern. 

The team went out of its way to highlight how the minor aerodynamic rule changes for 2021 – mainly the mandated cuts to the rear-floor area and the reduced diffuser strakes – could be a stumbling block for any squad. Although minor in comparison to the wholesale rule changes coming in 2022, the new requirements remained a challenge for designers across the grid. But a theory emerged during testing, particularly in light of Mercedes’ obvious struggles, which suggests that the floor-rule changes are causing it particular harm.  

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This is because of the low-rake concept the team has pursued (Aston Martin too, as it uses Mercedes’ rear-end package and engine). Although there is not yet enough evidence to conclusively say that this is indeed the reason for Mercedes’ new-found handling issues – and the team itself is unlikely to admit as much at this stage – it could well be that its low-rake philosophy is harmed more by the floor-rule changes than the high-rake concept pioneered by Red Bull.  

The RB16B features a tweaked rear-suspension design, which, it seemed at least in testing, has helped fix the unpredictable nature of the 2020 machine. Verstappen looked slightly wild on the opening morning of testing, and suffered a half-spin that looked eerily like the ones he and Alex Albon endured across last year’s pre-season, but as the Bahrain event wore on that just went away.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

The combination of Mercedes’ struggles and Red Bull’s sudden absence of issues is why F1’s current dominant squad is talking up its main rival. The trouble is, Mercedes has form in this area, which shouldn’t be comforting for neutral observers hoping for a shake-up in the competitive order. 

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“You can see on the data, of course, what they are doing,” says Verstappen. “They did their fastest lap with less power, and then two laps taking it easy. And then the next lap with half a second more power from the engine. So, they are fast, no doubt. 

“But now that things have been a little bit more difficult in the beginning, of course they try to push us into the favourites role. And then when they are up there again, it’s all genius. They did the same last year at some of the races. On Friday they said, ‘Yes, Red Bull looks very strong.’” 

Verstappen’s final point is what feels so familiar. On many occasions during 2020, particularly as the year wore on and Red Bull continued piling on developments while Mercedes did not add to the W11’s aero package, the Black Arrows talked up Red Bull’s pace and said it was ahead. Then, come qualifying and the race, Mercedes usually won out, although this did not happen during the Abu Dhabi season finale, when Red Bull looked to be ahead in practice and stayed there in qualifying and the race.  

It remains entirely possible that Mercedes will have used the two weeks separating the Bahrain test and season opener to solve its problems. But it’s also just as possible that, by the time this weekend’s event gets under way, it still won’t know what’s causing the handling problems

The teams do not have to run at full tilt in either testing or grand prix practice sessions, and rival squads can usually see from their GPS information to what degree a particular package is turned down or up. This is not to suggest that Mercedes is being deliberately misleading with its post-testing assertions, and indeed the team’s general transparency means it should be taken at its word. F1 squads are full of clever people wielding brilliant tools, which can add up to rapid transformations.  

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The Bahrain track has also not been a Mercedes stronghold in recent years – Verstappen finished just 1.3 seconds behind Hamilton in November’s 2020 Bahrain GP and, were it not for Charles Leclerc’s cylinder failure the year before, then Ferrari would have completed a Bahrain hat-trick.

It remains entirely possible that Mercedes will have used the two weeks separating the Bahrain test and season opener, which included a filming day in the test’s aftermath, to solve its problems. But it’s also just as possible that, by the time this weekend’s event gets under way, it still won’t know what’s causing the handling problems, or whether its package is indeed now inferior to Red Bull’s. This is F1’s delight – the unexpected, something that has been rather lacking in recent seasons…

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Adding Red Bull’s testing form to the manner in which it closed the gap to Mercedes over the course of 2020, we must conclude that it seems that the upcoming campaign is indeed its best chance to wrest back the titles it ceded at the start of the turbo-hybrid era in 2014.

Its development in 2020 is a crucial part of the picture at this stage. First, Red Bull closed from nearly 1% adrift at the start of last year to just under 0.6% across the season as an average, and was quicker at the Abu Dhabi finale. It did this by making a steady stream of updates, and the RB16B’s rear-suspension update shows how this development has continued. It therefore appears that 2021 is also Red Bull’s best chance to avoid the slow-start theme that has characterised its stories in recent seasons. Finally, it can be said that Red Bull looks to be starting fast.

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If F1 is indeed set for its first multi-team title scrap since 2012, then Red Bull’s new driver line-up is going to play a vital role in how the fight is settled. Sergio Perez has been brought in to try to balance the team’s points haul and to give it strategy options it missed with only one car regularly in the lead fight during the past two seasons.

The 2020 Sakhir GP race winner faces a tough task alone to reach Verstappen’s impressive level, and he has to do so after just 1.5 days of learning the RB16B and adapting to his new team’s design idiosyncrasies, something his two most recent predecessors arguably never did. But Perez has some idea of when he should be feeling completely comfortable with his new surroundings. 

“After five races,” he says. “Once we go through very different races, different conditions, you understand the car, and the team, a lot better. Five races, proper races, [and it] should be good.” 

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Heading into the new campaign, expect Verstappen to again lead Red Bull’s line. He’s proven that he’s one of F1’s best drivers – ranked behind only Hamilton by Autosport last season – but if his team is indeed in proper contention this year, something more needs to come from Verstappen. Simply put, if the RB16B- versus-W12 match-up means Red Bull has a chance to beat Mercedes, then Verstappen must show he can deliver on his immense promise and come out on top in a title battle.

That will surely require a change in mindset on occasion – he cannot always be hard-charging and willing to risk everything for one victory (something that arguably cost him a chance of winning last season’s thrilling Turkish GP), and will have to consider the occasions when settling for consistent points is the best course. Remember, for all his incredible talent, the remarkable career rise it led to means Verstappen has never taken a title in car racing. But just because the test is new does not mean the 23-year-old will fail.  

Max Verstappen, Bahrain F1 test 2021

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Mercedes has become F1’s ultimate winning machine, with a run of success that is unmatched in the championship’s history. This past form would be a significant factor in its favour if 2021 is indeed set to go down as the first multi-team title fight of the turbo-hybrid era.  

Unfortunately, as we all know, the COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing, and could well have an impact on the upcoming season. Every driver and team member will need to do their utmost to stay healthy, while remembering that the virus’s nature means catching it can often come down to luck.

Ultimately, there’s a reason why the headline to this piece has been posed as a question – it’s very unclear who is the favourite on the eve of the 2021 season opener. It could be Red Bull. It could just as easily be Mercedes

Both Mercedes and Red Bull have drivers who tested positive in 2020, something that could prove costly in a title battle if it occurs at a critical point this year (Perez revealed during testing that he accepted Bahrain’s offer to receive COVID-19 vaccinations). 

The pandemic’s lasting impact could yet be felt on the calendar, and this may well assist Mercedes too, given that tracks where Red Bull has historically been strong – Mexico City, Interlagos – are far from guaranteed to stay on the schedule. It’s a situation that no one wants to come to pass, but everything feels uncertain – including the F1 formbook heading into the new season. 

Ultimately, there’s a reason why the headline to this piece has been posed as a question – it’s very unclear who is the favourite on the eve of the 2021 season opener. It could be Red Bull. It could just as easily be Mercedes. They could be equally matched.  

It’s a tantalising prospect overall, which surely trumps the certainty of one team being crushingly dominant.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images