How Red Bull won F1 2021 pre-season testing

As ever in testing, it’s very tricky to sort a long-run order given the many variables and concealments we outlined above, but here we've assembled a selection of ‘race’ times to dig into.

We’re ignoring times set on day one, as then the teams were mainly doing their basic install and set-up work, plus it was hot, windy and there was a sandstorm in the afternoon – although Autosport understands that at least one driver felt that the coarse nature of the Bahrain track surface meant the sand in fact filtered between the stones in the asphalt and therefore this was not such a factor in how the cars were handling. Hamilton felt otherwise, comparing conditions to wet running when moving offline.

Mercedes didn't do any full race distance simulation work throughout testing - preferring instead to take set runs at a consistent pace, with a set amount of fuel on board

Anyway, looking at just long-run times set on the medium tyre, the compound right in the middle of Pirelli’s range, and for all 10 teams from days two and three (plus, we've tried to keep to a standard run length where possible), the above order is how things seem to stack up.

McLaren and Alpine are boosted above the rest because their times came from the end of race simulations on the final day, when fuel would likely have been burnt off, plus their stints are the shortest we calculated.

Esteban Ocon, Alpine A521 and Lando Norris, McLaren MCL35M

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Mercedes didn't do any full race distance simulation work throughout testing - preferring instead to take set runs at a consistent pace, with a set amount of fuel on board - and its best run with such parameters came in the hotter, and therefore less ideal, morning conditions on the second day.

Red Bull ran for much longer on the C3 time we’re considering, and that was in the middle of a full race trial in day two’s second session, so this goes someway to balancing out the conditions between the top two teams.

Testing pecking order

Red Bull
Mercedes
AlphaTauri
McLaren
Alpine
Ferrari
Aston Martin
Alfa Romeo
Williams
Haas

We've got Red Bull placed ahead of Mercedes in this theoretical pecking order because it had a smooth test overall, topped the times and is ahead in our C3 comparison. But that does not make Red Bull the favourite for 2021 given all the historical examples of Mercedes looking weaker against its rival, only to turn around and stun the field when it really matters. 

AlphaTauri looks to be nimble, exciting and very strong overall, with its drivers able to lap consistently and smoothly throughout testing. We've got it ahead of McLaren and Alpine in our testing pecking order (which, to stress, is not how they will necessarily line up on the grid for the first race because of all the caveats of testing!) because of its sensational one-lap pace on Sunday. 

McLaren looks to have made a very successful transition to Mercedes power - suffering none of the reliability issues seen at the works squad and at Aston Martin - while Alpine generally came in behind its orange rival on the long run averages we crunched, hence why the two squads are this way around above. 

Ferrari is very difficult to place. Sainz helped it leap up the overall order late on day three, with a respectable run on the harder of the two soft tyres, but it's the team’s long run pace in our C3 comparison that lets it down. Ferrari is nevertheless happy that its power deficit will not be as big as it was in 2020, so it will be worth keeping an eye on how it goes in qualifying for the Bahrain race.

Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari SF21

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Aston Martin is also difficult to place in a pecking order based on the last three days. Its reliability problems kept it from doing any serious performance running – with Sebastian Vettel losing the chance to do any late flying laps because of an engine boost pressure issue – and it is well down our C3 comparison.  

But this was the third fastest car in 2020 and it could well have been running more fuel during the Mercedes-like consistent high-fuel trials (the team did not do any complete race distance simulations) that we observed.  

Although Alfa Romeo finished well up the overall order on one-lap pace, it did so on the softest rubber - which several midfield squads avoided or had troubled running overall in testing.  

For that reason, and the same applies to Williams, we've got the 2020 'Class C' squads grouped together again, but it seems that based on a combination of one-lap pace and our C3 comparison that Haas finished 2021 testing at the rear of our theoretical pecking order. 

Why Mercedes can’t be written off just yet 

This time 12 months ago, Mercedes was the clear winner of winter testing. Red Bull’s pace was less clear, although it was clearly second best, but its drivers just kept spinning with what was a very difficult car. 

Mercedes had by far the best car in 2020 – even though Red Bull developed its way into contention by the end of the season. It is conceivable that the Black Arrows was holding back something in testing, which perhaps explains its lack of headline pace

Things have almost exactly reversed in 2021. Other than a day one half-spin coming out of the Turn 3 acceleration zone, which the team explained was down to Verstappen being caught out by a gust of wind, Red Bull has looked planted. Mercedes has not. Things looked better on the final day, but then came Hamilton’s C5 spin… 

But here’s the thing. Mercedes had by far the best car in 2020 – even though Red Bull developed its way into contention by the end of the season. It is conceivable that the Black Arrows was holding back something in testing, which perhaps explains its lack of headline pace.  

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12 runs wide

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

But at the same time, something is awry with its handling – possibly explained by the theory that the changes to the floor rules have hampered cars running the low-rake philosophy more than those with high rake – i.e. the different philosophies of Mercedes and Red Bull.  

Bahrain is also something of an unusual track, it’s not the chassis tester extraordinaire of Barcelona and the wind can cause havoc with car handling. Mercedes’ record in the Bahrain GP is two wins in the last four years, which would’ve been one but for Charles Leclerc’s 2019 heartbreak. So, Mercedes’ problems could be track specific. 

The team does have something of an ace up its sleeve, in that it is holding a filming day in Bahrain between now and the first race. Performance runs aren’t allowed, but it will still be helpful to have additional running to go alongside all the time for data analysis (that all teams will do) in the coming two weeks.  

The final thought on Mercedes is this: 2021 testing has been the exact opposite of smooth for the world champion team.  

Red Bull should be extremely confident from its running this weekend, and deservedly so. But F1 has been here before – Mercedes simply cannot ever be written off entirely. 

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images