How Formula E factors could negate Red Bull's Jeddah practice gap to Mercedes

The chasing car had been the clear pacesetter in practice. It was a scrap between the two best packages of the season – well ahead of the chasing pack – with the drivers that would top the standings at the season’s end duelling for the win on a track set back just a few metres from the seafront.

The leader was under race-long pressure. He had a reputation from earlier in his career as being hot-headed and volatile – but he’d honed his reactions when it really mattered, even if the fury was never far from the surface. He had to place his car perfectly at the few potential passing spots. If he did, an important victory was his to lose.

What happened in Formula E’s last Punta del Este race, where Techeetah’s Jean-Eric Vergne defeated Audi driver Lucas di Grassi in a close, if pass-less, contest could yet be the race story of Formula 1’s first visit to the Jeddah Corniche Circuit.

The track itself is very FE. For a start, it’s a purpose-built facility masquerading as a street-track. It’s narrow – not by FE standards, but very much by F1’s. And, if the drivers hit kerbs slightly wrong or stray too far from the racing line, car damage or accidents will follow.

There are big differences, certainly. Jeddah is much faster, and longer – over twice the length of Punta in fact. Plus, it's altogether more interesting than the often identikit tracks FE typically visits (although some of them, normally away from city centres have unique identities such Tempelhof, ExCeL and indeed Punta). And, of course, the Punta circuit was one the electric category used rather than created, its first of three visits there happening seven years after the last Super TC2000 event in the Uruguayan resort city.

But the FE factors F1 is experiencing in Jeddah might just shape Saudi Arabia’s inaugural grand prix – and do so in a similar vein to Vergne’s triumph back in March 2018.

If Max Verstappen can beat Lewis Hamilton to pole position on Saturday, then he has a massive chance of winning the race. This is because early reports from team insiders suggest overtaking will not be easy here, as leading drivers will be able to position their cars at Jeddah’s few passing points in such a way that getting by will be very tough. This is especially important because the offline areas chasers will be ushered towards will be slippery once the marbles start to pile up in Sunday’s race.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B, Mick Schumacher, Haas VF-21, Pierre Gasly, AlphaTauri AT02

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images

The braking zones – of which there are only seven in Jeddah, despite the 3.83-mile track having 27 corners – are also very short, which adds to the overtaking challenge. Once away from these few points on the brakes, the drivers are spending 79% of the rest of the lap on the gas.

This is likely why Verstappen eschewed a chunk of his FP2 long running to concentrate on finding better single-lap performance after losing the best of his soft tyre life early in his mid-session qualifying simulation effort.

He was able to register a personal best on the red-walled rubber, which put him fourth in the standings behind FP2 leader Hamilton, Valtteri Bottas and Pierre Gasly, but his time came on the fourth flier in a six-lap stint. For reference, Gasly’s came on the second, while the Mercedes drivers never registered a soft tyre personal best due to traffic problems (another familiar FE factor) on their lower-fuel runs midway through the night session.

FP2 overall order

Verstappen was also struggling “to get heat into the tyres in FP2”, as he languished 0.195s off Hamilton’s best time.

“We made a few changes from FP1 to FP2 which didn’t quite work but hopefully we can find the right balance come qualifying tomorrow,” the Dutchman continued. “There are of course a lot of things to work on and improve so we’ll see what we can do to get more pace out of the car overnight.”

Mercedes also thinks it has work to do to improve on the critical one-lap pace – despite leading both sessions on Friday.

“Single lap we were happier [in FP1] than we were in [FP2],” said the team’s director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “[We were] struggling to get the grip out of the tyres, and in particular on that soft. So now we've got some ideas for what to do there so that we understand our own problem, and we'll just get busy tonight trying to improve it.”

Sparks kick up from Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Data Autosport has seen suggests Red Bull was quicker at the left-right flicks that form the Turns 7-8 complex midway through sector one, where climbing over the kerbs is both perilous and critical for lap time (FE enters our considerations once again).

But Mercedes’ most significant gain in one-lap speed versus its main rival was coming on the straights. And this is before, we assume (because the team understandably won’t confirm this), that Hamilton’s faster, Interlagos-issued engine is put back into his W12 on Saturday.

But traffic is also a big reason why Mercedes didn’t go quicker on the softs, with Hamilton twice having to bail out of laps after encountering slower cars at critical parts of the track. These incidents, which could prove to be very controversial if they are repeated in qualifying, occurred at the Turn 10 rapid 90-degree left and the fast (where isn’t here?), long left hairpin that ends the Jeddah lap.

Getting a clean, hard out-lap is important to build and maintain tyre temperature for a one-lap flier in Jeddah and so traffic influencing this preparation is likely what is flummoxing Mercedes somewhat on Friday night.

Medium tyre average order

When he did switch to long-running in FP2, Verstappen was shockingly off Mercedes’ pace on the same medium tyres – as can be seen in the table above. This adds to the potential pressure of trying to get pole on Saturday.

There are several reasons for this gap. Of course, the usual practice caveats regarding engine modes and fuel levels apply, but traffic was also a major factor even on long runs – and this could be seen across the grid.

Esteban Ocon, Alpine A521, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

But both Verstappen and Perez – whose average is the one included as Red Bull’s best above, with his team-mate a further 0.101s slower than Hamilton’s times on the mediums for Mercedes – were also losing chunks of time at Turns 1 and 2. Autosport sources suggest this was around 0.6s of the big 0.974s gap between the teams in the average pace on the mediums noted above.

Cold tyre temperatures were being very exposed at this point – with plenty of drivers struggling with front-left locking or oversteer snaps that needed to be managed at the cost of lap time. Verstappen has already highlighted Red Bull’s problems with that factor.

Returning to the potential race F1 may get on Sunday, where it’s just as likely that Hamilton takes pole and dominates as Verstappen ends up leading a Vergne vs di Grassi-style scrap, the overtaking problem could well be further exacerbated by the smooth new surface.

“[We were] struggling to get the grip out of the tyres, and in particular on that soft. So now we've got some ideas for what to do there so that we understand our own problem, and we'll just get busy tonight trying to improve it” Andrew Shovlin

This is because it is creating very little tyre wear. Even the soft tyre was reportedly retaining plenty of performance deep into the long runs in FP2. This means using strategy variances such as running long could be harder to execute if the driver facing a rubber-life offset doesn’t run into late-stint wear problems.

But a final FE factor also needs to be considered – and this is something that could shake Sunday’s race up massively. The close proximity of the walls could well lead to accidents – and big ones here, as Charles Leclerc’s late FP2 shunt proved. He was given the all clear in the track’s medical centre and Ferrari reckons its initial checks of his chassis and engine mean both can used again on Saturday. This is a critical test of its operations progress since Monaco…

Accidents on Sunday could mean safety cars and unexpected pitstops. It offers the potential for chaos even if passing is problematic.

But even if there are no shunts and no meaningful overtakes in the lead fight, that doesn’t mean the race won’t be gripping. After all, Vergne’s defence against di Grassi was brilliant and gave him a deserved victory in what would be a maiden title-winning campaign. How Verstappen would take that heading into F1’s 2021 season finale.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Simon Galloway / Motorsport Images