Has the US GP already left expectations tempered for F1 in 2023?

Just how potent is the combination of Max Verstappen driving a Red Bull RB18? Well, last weekend’s United States Grand Prix produced yet another pretty good gauge. Despite a faulty front-left wheel gun creating an 11.1s pitstop that would have been agony for the two-time world champion in the cockpit, he still managed to catch and pass his two biggest rivals to grab first place with six laps to spare before securing the win by over 5s.

That Verstappen has won his second championship with four races still to play and has now matched the Formula 1 record of 13 wins in a season are clear reads of his dominance. But it was his final stint at Austin - to go with his recovery from 14th on the grid to lead at Spa after only 12 laps, plus his rapid rise to win in Monza - that really hit home the rich vein of form.

It’s no secret the developed RB18 is lighter, and so ballast can be strategically placed at the front of the car to press the Pirellis into the asphalt to eradicate the understeer Verstappen loathes. As well as suiting him, it has actively hurt team-mate Sergio Perez. Hence why, since the summer break, the Mexican has qualified on average 0.607s slower than his colleague - excluding Singapore, when it was Red Bull’s fuel strategy error that dropped Verstappen out in Q2.

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However, it wouldn’t be totally true to say that the RB18 is always the undisputed weapon of choice and that its Verstappen-tailored traits have given the driver an easy time of late.

According to the ‘Supertimes’ metric, which looks at the fastest lap set by each team over a race weekend, Ferrari has been the pacesetter for three of the last four weekends, only being trumped by Red Bull at Suzuka. The Scuderia charge might have been blunted so much this year by poor strategy, pitstops and unreliability before more recently feeling as though the F1-75 has lost a dash of its speed, but the evidence indicates that it is by no means out for the count.

Nevertheless, although Charles Leclerc recovered beautifully against Verstappen’s DRS pass up the hill into Turn 1 in Texas to regain position for the snaking first sector, his demotion to the Red Bull felt inevitable last Sunday. It was just a matter of time, his recovery from that 10-place grid penalty and his strong progress through the midfield considered.

Ferrari's early 2022 promise has waned throughout the year

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Then, when it looked as though the Monegasque had kept up with Verstappen to create a three-way battle for victory, he suddenly dropped back by 4s to Verstappen and eventually crossed the line 7.5s in arrears.

As per the whole of 2022, much of that can be attributed to the Ferrari chewing through its rubber. This was particularly a problem in the early races at Miami and Imola but seemed to die down to a degree as the campaign wore on - perhaps because the strategy shockers provided a major distraction. But still, since the FIA porpoising-focused technical directive came in after the summer break, the tyre troubles have come to the fore once more.

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If, as Leclerc has said, the final races of an ultimately underwhelming 2022 are to run as a dress rehearsal for 2023, then there’s scope to bank as much data to work out how to quench the F1-75’s thirst for tyres. And should those ‘supertimes’ prove reliable, Ferrari is still there on pace. But Leclerc also wanted the team to use that pressure-free run to the end of the season to nail its pitstops.

Verstappen's final stint at Austin - to go with his recovery from 14th on the grid to lead at Spa after only 12 laps, plus his rapid Monza rise - hit home his rich vein of form

While the strategy clangers and unreliability are no longer front and centre, it should be noted that there’s still a way to go. Red Bull clocked the fastest stop in Austin (2.13s) for Perez and sixth-best for Verstappen (2.63s). Ferrari wasn’t in the top 10. So, Red Bull’s wheel gun horror aside, it’s being gifted 0.5s every time the tyres are swapped. That’s no good for an audience wanting a two-way team fight in 2023. Ferrari still isn't operating at its maximum.

To continue the preview of next season, what Mercedes could offer at the Circuit of The Americas didn’t provide an abundance of optimism either. Granted, the Silver Arrows was genuinely in the hunt for a race win, as it had been at Zandvoort. But as Verstappen approached the rear of Lewis Hamilton’s W13, the overtake soon looked inevitable.

That the RB18 tore past in a straight line was particularly striking. Of course, with DRS, Verstappen was also going to go past. But when Hamilton then got the overtaking aid back in his favour, to the naked eye, he barely looked to close on the Red Bull as the Merc was again restricted by its high drag at top speed.

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After all the noise from Messrs Hamilton, Wolff and Russell that the team can win this year despite its bouncing ground-effect car, this was a reality check for everyone watching. We knew it would take favourable circumstances for Mercedes to win a race.

Mercedes had arguably its best shot yet at victory in 2022, but still fell short

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

But even when it got them - one Ferrari being eliminated at the first corner, another running with a 10-place grid drop, one Red Bull being demoted and the other stymied by a woeful pitstop - it still was not enough.

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A setback for its competitors isn't enough. Mercedes needs them to endure total disasters. This all, bear in mind, came on a weekend when Mercedes sported its final major upgrade package of a difficult campaign.

Watching Hamilton not being able to hold on to the death to challenge for the win - and the Mercedes propping up the order in the speed traps once more - re-establishes the gap to Red Bull that must be closed over the winter for a desired two or three-way team battle in 2023 to come to fruition.

That Verstappen could recover to victory so brilliantly in Belgium and Italy means the Red Bull supremacy is hardly breaking news. But they felt comparatively early in the year to be making well-founded predictions about the year after.

Verstappen’s Austin comeback arriving that bit later to guarantee Red Bull the constructors’ trophy feels a more solid form guide, even if not a welcome one for the neutral wanting the most competitive F1 possible.

Red Bull and Verstappen are both at the top of their game, and its difficult to foresee that changing next year

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images