Why Hamilton could be wrong: Mercedes 2022 F1 win chances aren’t over

Well, that was all very 2021. Two brilliant drivers leading the way for two sharply run teams that nailed their strategy calls. There was tyre management magic, an aggressive Max Verstappen move for the lead and Lewis Hamilton turning out of contact.

And for the second year in a row, Formula 1’s United States Grand Prix ended with a Red Bull victory.

PLUS: The pre-race call that hurt Hamilton's chance to halt Verstappen's Austin charge

But unlike 12 months ago, where Verstappen delivered a much-needed win in a close contest to maintain his points advantage after a run of Mercedes wins following Daniel Ricciardo’s shock Monza triumph, this was his seventh in eight and 13th of the 2022 campaign.

It clinched Red Bull’s constructors’ crown regardless of what happened with Haas’s pious protest of Sergio Perez’s damaged RB18, which was in any case thrown out.

The win ties Verstappen with Michael Schumacher and Sebastian Vettel on F1’s single-season victory record that he seems destined to take alone given there are still three races left and he is a previous winner at every remaining venue.

His Austin triumph had an air of inevitably that echoed wins from each era of domination completed by Schumacher, Vettel and Hamilton. It was an excellent display and a fitting tribute to Red Bull co-founder and patriarch Dietrich Mateschitz.

The twist was that it was Mercedes and not Ferrari providing the closest opposition, the silver squad came within seven laps of scoring a first victory since that disgraceful inaugural Jeddah race in December last year. With a healthy lead and seemingly more durable tyre, the circumstances looked tailored for a Hamilton win, but Verstappen rallied and wrested back the spoils – his mediums actually turning out to be the superior strategy.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB18, leads Sir Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W13, and Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB18

Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images

Afterwards, Hamilton effectively declared Mercedes’ hopes of winning with the recalcitrant W13 to be over. If no victory is forthcoming, 2022 will the first season in Hamilton’s F1 career where he hasn’t taken at least one.

“I think we really need to be realistic,” he said of Mercedes possibly winning in Mexico, Brazil or Abu Dhabi.

“The Red Bull car has been the fastest car by far all year. And it is still the fastest car. We were in the position we have been in through a lot of the races – through reliability. You know if Charles was there, if Perez was there, for example, it would have been a different race, because they would have been ahead of us, we would have been on the third row [had Leclerc and Perez not taken grid drops at Austin for taking additional engine parts].

It was surely Zandvoort, with Mercedes’ stunning pace on the shock one-stopper, where the Silver Arrows had its best chance dashed by the late-race neutralisations

“It was great to have started third and been in position to fight, but out of true pace, they were ahead of us all weekend. They were [last Sunday] and they will be the next three races. So, unless something drastic happens to any more of them, for example, then it's highly unlikely that we will have the true pace to be able to compete with them.

“But we'll give it everything we've got. We're working on making a car that can fight with them. But I think [second at Austin] shows that our teamwork was fantastic. As a team, we operated amazing.

“He had an 11-second stop and he was behind Charles. That just shows how much pace they had in hand – to have got past Charles, and to have caught up six seconds, and pulled three seconds ahead of me at least… That shows some serious speed.

Sir Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W13

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

“Honestly, I think this [track] was our best [shot at winning]. This one was probably one of our best.”

Hamilton is right to be realistic.

Having entered F1 at the end of the Schumacher domination era, having lived through Vettel’s and his own periods of sustained success – he knows how things go. And those were pre-cost cap ages, where Mercedes might’ve been able to radically alter its 2022 package to go from also-ran to winner as Hamilton’s McLaren squad famously did in 2009.

After dominating the early stages at Austin – where he received an enormous slice of luck in having a much-improved and motivated Carlos Sainz removed as opposition by another bad misjudgement from George Russell, the mistakes of late really adding up – Verstappen had plenty thrown at him. And he still won.

He defeated Hamilton in a manner the Briton made very familiar in recent seasons – stealing away a faint hope from a team not regularly in the victory battle (think Ferrari and Leclerc at Silverstone last year).

And Hamilton is something of an Austin specialist – only Valtteri Bottas’s 2019 win blemishing his team-mate battle tally at that track. If he couldn’t win there, where could he…?

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W13, Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB18

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

And perhaps here we might even consider that as good as Hamilton was last weekend, Austin may not even have been the place where Mercedes’ chances of snatching a win were greatest given how Verstappen had things under control before his botched second pitstop.

It was surely Zandvoort, with Mercedes’ stunning pace on the shock one-stopper, where the Silver Arrows had its best chance dashed by the late-race neutralisations.

But there is yet hope for Mercedes.

Brazil and Abu Dhabi might be tricky – although the sprint format at the former could provide a chance, if the shorter affair is somehow much more exciting than any of the five others held so far – but Mexico this weekend is what’s really interesting.

“On paper, Mexico looks good, our draggy car should be effective in the thin air. I hope we can give them a run for their money"Toto Wolff

Remember how, every time F1 would visit the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in the previous part of the turbo hybrid era, the Mexico City park track was generally considered ‘Red Bull territory’? It all centred on the city’s altitude – 7,350ft above sea level.

In such thin air, Red Bull’s previous high-rake concept was boosted – because the extra drag it naturally created was negated by the conditions. Monaco-specification downforce packages are common in Mexico for this reason.

But that doesn’t mean Ferrari can automatically assume it will set the pace and run Red Bull close given the F1-75’s high downforce capability, as the altitude reduces outright downforce levels with the lower air density not pushing the cars into the track as much as elsewhere.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W13, Lance Stroll, Aston Martin AMR22

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Plus, the Honda engine has always gone well in Mexico and the track has that very long main straight – sure to aid racing chances for Verstappen and home hero Perez.

But where the W13’s additional drag levels hurt Hamilton in his bid to keep Verstappen behind late in the Austin race to the tune of 5.7mph through the speed trap, the high altitude will reduce that penalty considerably.

Add in Mercedes’ feeling that its Austin upgrade aimed at data-gathering for 2023 was a decent step – despite the new front wing never destined to be run until this weekend in Mexico possibly needing tweaks to be ruled legal – and it has reason to be optimistic, not pessimistic, heading into the second event of this double header.

“I need to bite my tongue because sometimes this year I’ve said we should be good at a particular track and we didn’t and then [it was] the other way around,” concluded Mercedes boss Toto Wolff at Austin.

“On paper, Mexico looks good, our draggy car should be effective in the thin air and it is good that it is coming [soon]. I hope we can give them a run for their money.”

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W13

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images