Gary Anderson ranks the F1 teams at mid-season

We headed into the start of the 2019 Formula 1 season expecting Ferrari to lead the way after what seemed to be a strong performance throughout pre-season testing.

But the last five months have turned into another season of dominance for Mercedes, with Red Bull coming on strong in recent races and Ferrari finding endless ways to miss opportunities.

Looking at the performance data across all the teams, Red Bull and Mercedes have gained a little compared to last year, while Ferrari has stepped back even though it remains, on average, the second fastest car. Given Max Verstappen's recent form, I wonder how much longer that will last?

As always when considering the outright performance of the teams, we look at what we call the 'supertimes'. This takes each car's fastest single lap of a race weekend and converts it into a percentage of the fastest overall. This allows us to give equal weight to each of the 12 race weekends so far, and by calculating each team's average we get an overall performance figure.

Mercedes leads the way on 100.091%, with Ferrari second on 100.489% and Red Bull third at 100.744%. That reflects what we are seeing in the championship, with Mercedes out in front after winning 10 out of 12 races and Red Bull piling the pressure on Ferrari despite the outgoing Pierre Gasly having struggled alongside Verstappen.

And while the drivers' championship battle has been all about Lewis Hamilton versus Valtteri Bottas, with 62 points now between the pair, the two standout drivers have been Hamilton and Verstappen.

How the 2019 F1 field stacks up

Measuring the outright pace of each car so far this season (%)

The teams are ranked based on their overall performance figure, but we can also look at their race by race progression over the year. And to give an idea of the step from the end of last season to next, we've also broken the performance figures down into four-race blocks to show each team's progress over the final four races of last year, and the three blocks of four races from this year.

THE LEAD BATTLE

The top three constructors' performance

Comparing the pace of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull

1 Mercedes

Average 2019 performance: 100.091%
Change from 2018: 0.028% gain
Points: 438

Mercedes' performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

We saw Mercedes start testing looking well behind with a much more basic car before turning up for the final pre-season test with a very different aerodynamic package. Surprisingly, the first package was what you might call an inwash endplate design before moving to a completely different approach with outwash for the second edition.

That shows where Mercedes was with its research at the point where the 'first' package was signed off in around November/December. Mercedes started to understand its revised package towards the end of the final winter test so, having applied what was learned, the car hit the track in Melbourne with a big advantage.

The team is very strong at recovering from setbacks so it's no surprise to see that pace turned into 10 wins out of 12, even though there have been times when Ferrari had the speed to win. I can't see anything disrupting Mercedes and Hamilton's march to yet another world championship double in the second half of the year.

We did see the troubles with cooling that cost Mercedes in Austria, which was a surprise. But changes were made for the German Grand Prix a month later in case those high temperatures were encountered again. It did seem Mercedes was underprepared on this front initially, but it favoured having the performance in the car and then managing where it needed to. In Austria, it wasn't possible to dictate the pace from the front and manage it and that led to its first defeat.

2 Ferrari

Average 2019 performance: 100.489%
Change from 2018: 0.252% loss
Points: 288

Ferrari's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

Ferrari has been the big disappointment of the season because we all thought it would take the fight to Mercedes. The season-opening Australian GP was a massive immediate letdown, with the car well off Mercedes' pace. Even when it has had the pace to fight for victory, Ferrari has found a way to throw it away.

The problems have been all over the place, ranging from driver errors to a variety of mechanical problems, so there's no one area Ferrari can focus on to fix its issues.

It's clear the car doesn't have enough downforce, specifically in the front end at low speed in particular. But I'm not convinced Ferrari truly understands what the problem is, because you can't just throw downforce onto it and assume that will fix it.

Team principal Mattia Binotto has talked about mistakes with the concept of the car that have been worked on, primarily with the overall focus on aerodynamic efficiency and also the weakness in terms of front load.

Pre-season, I talked about my concerns that Ferrari had made a mistake by taking a strong technical leader such as Binotto and making him team principal. That does seem to be the case. That's not about Binotto being a bad team boss, but his new role weakens his contribution technically.

I also questioned the front wing concept, with the elements swooping down towards the endplate. The front load has to be created somewhere, and given this has been a weakness you have to ask if the design is just sacrificing too much of the opportunity to create downforce.

Overall, Ferrari has been a shambles. It has had five weekends where the car was quick enough to win - Bahrain, Azerbaijan, Canada, Austria and Germany - and not to have taken a single one of those opportunities is poor.

3 Red Bull

Average 2019 performance: 100.744%
Change from 2018: 0.053% gain
Points: 244

Red Bull's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

The success of Red Bull, Honda and Verstappen has perhaps been the biggest surprise of the season. With the change of engine supplier, I expected it to take a little longer for Red Bull to get to this level but there was never any doubt Honda would get there eventually.

Winning two of the last four races - and it could have been three given what happened in Hungary - has helped to make this part of the season much more exciting. Red Bull did struggle a little early on but the Austrian GP update package seems to have allowed it to get the best out of the car.

It does seem that it struggled a little with front wing understanding at first, but just some small changes have made a big difference. Given that trend, I'm looking forward to seeing what Red Bull can do in the second half of the season.

Honda's progress means you definitely wouldn't say it's the fourth-best engine supplier and I'd say right now it has the same power as - or knocking on the door of at least - Ferrari and Mercedes. Maybe it's giving away 10bhp, but perhaps Honda can't run at that level for quite as long. That's still very good progress when you consider where it was with McLaren as recently as 2017.

It also shows Red Bull has been able to strike up a good relationship with Honda. Both sides are working well together, which is a big change from the wrong approach McLaren took in its partnership. We've also seen huge progress with reliability, it's not just a strong engine that is unreliable - it's now a very good package overall.

THE MIDFIELD BATTLE

The midfield teams' performance compared

The fluctuating pace of the midfield teams in 2018

4 McLaren

Average 2019 performance: 101.676%
Change from 2018: 1.247% gain
Points: 82

McLaren's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

McLaren is the biggest improver of the year with a performance gain of almost 1.3%, and that's been backed up by how well the McLaren race team is running the car at the track. That's a massive gain and it shows the changes that have been made within the team have worked well.

It's a much bigger step than I expected and all credit to McLaren. The team structure has changed and Andreas Seidl and James Key coming in will have made a difference, although the improvements will have started before they arrived.

I worked with Key at Jordan and he understands vehicle dynamics very well, in particular how to apply the aero map to the car set-up to help give the driver get the best out of it, especially on corner entry.

It's not just about peak downforce, it's about giving the drivers confidence and both Carlos Sainz Jr and Lando Norris seem to know what to expect from the car when they get to the corner. That's to the credit of everyone there. It's not just the performance, which is usually based on qualifying - where McLaren gets the best out of the car.

The races have been well executed and we've more often than not seen McLaren at the front of the midfield, resulting in a big points advantage over the rest of its peer group. You just have to compare its results to that of the Renault works team, which uses the same engine, to see how well McLaren has done.

5 Haas

Average 2019 performance: 101.798%
Change from 2018: 0.172% gain
Points: 26

Haas's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

It says a lot about the kind of season that Haas is facing that it has the fifth-fastest car on average but is ninth in the championship. Haas takes from Ferrari as much as the regulations allow it to under the listed-parts rules, which is potentially an advantage but it also might mean that you don't understand your car because you didn't create it. Maybe that's at the heart of the problem, not having that depth of knowledge of the package.

Romain Grosjean has been using the start-of-season specification car for the last three race weekends with Kevin Magnussen using the latest developments. The latest specification does have more downforce, but it's not working as well in all conditions.

If you are creating more downforce it has to come from somewhere, working surfaces harder to achieve that, and maybe that's led to the underfloor becoming more critical. The new car has more grip, is faster and more consistent at low speed but struggles when the temperature goes up.

It's a disastrous scenario, with the car usually capable of putting in some good laps over a race weekend but the pace seeming to disappear between sessions and even stages of qualifying. Generating and maintaining tyre performance seems to be a problem as well, and that mainly raises its ugly head over race stints.

I'm not convinced Haas has understood this problem, and it must do so to turn things around in the second half of the year. I often say, 'You need to identify before you can rectify'. Haas really, really does.

6 Renault

Average 2019 performance: 101.888%
Change from 2018: 0.249% gain
Points: 39

Renault's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

Renault has made a small improvement in performance from last season to this, by a quarter-of-a-percent, but the problem is inconsistency. One weekend its cars are up there in Q3, the next they are out in Q1.

The comparison with customer team McLaren does not make Renault look good. It's a team that has expanded rapidly over the past few years but the underachievement this year means that perhaps the sharp knives are out internally.

It's one thing to have a car capable of being reasonably quick, as the Renault seems to be, but another to get the best out of it consistently. There haven't been enough weekends like Canada where Daniel Ricciardo and Nico Hulkenberg finished sixth and seventh.

Renault's investment level means it needs to be leading the midfield rather than struggling in sixth in the championship. Bringing Ricciardo in at huge cost was a good signing but the team needs to regroup and show it can make use of such a good driver.

Renault must understand what's gone wrong. We also saw team principal Cyril Abiteboul talking up updates, but the car is standing still compared to the rest and I don't think Renault has identified its weaknesses. It's all well and good blaming Hulkenberg for crashing in Germany, but the team has cost itself far more points than that mistake did. It'll be a shame if he ends up carrying the can for wider weaknesses.

The problem is the car, as Ricciardo has shown. There's good staff, good facilities and a good budget here, but it's just not coming together.

7 Alfa Romeo

Average 2019 performance: 102.021%
Change from 2018 (as Sauber): 0.582% gain
Points: 32

Alfa Romeo's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 (as Sauber) and the first 12 races of 2019

Kimi Raikkonen's level of experience is paying off for Alfa Romeo, with consistent points finishes. Antonio Giovinazzi has been quick at times in the other car but struggles in races, and it shows how valuable Raikkonen's performances have been.

Alfa has come up with a car that gives Raikkonen confidence; you can never doubt his commitment to driving what he has flat out. So, in return for its investment in him, the team gets a good understanding of the pace of the car. It's all about working out its development direction and how to get the best out of the package at the racetrack.

The arrival of the Alfa Romeo name is good for the team's budget and this is a good platform to build from. The competition in the midfield is tough, but if you can score eight times out of 12 - and it would have been nine without the penalties for illegal starts in Germany - that shows a strong team that can make progress from here.

Beyond that, it's just a question of adding downforce and also making the most of the relationship with Ferrari.

8 Toro Rosso

Average 2019 performance: 102.091%
Change from 2018: 0.714% gain
Points: 43

Toro Rosso's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

Toro Rosso is up in fifth in the constructors' championship, largely thanks to Daniil Kvyat finishing third and Alex Albon sixth in Germany. But it has also scored points consistently. Being in the second year with Honda will have helped, and closer collaboration with Red Bull in terms of use of parts has also paid off.

Overall, the team's performance level doesn't match up to its fifth-best championship status, but that shows how well the drivers and team have taken their opportunities. Kvyat has returned a more rounded driver and has the experience to lead the team, while Red Bull-bound Albon has shown he's very capable at this level. Consistency has improved, with more ups than downs.

The car is quick enough to fight in the very tight midfield, even though it's becoming harder to get into Q3, so that means there are points on the table most weekends.

9 Racing Point

Average 2019 performance: 102.408%
Change from 2018: 0.201% loss
Points: 31

Racing Point's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

The season started well with regular points and the hope was that the new investment would allow this to be built on. But when you are trying to invest in factories etc, that can be distracting and sometimes more isn't necessarily more.

It could be that the big plan, without the right structure given this is a team that excelled as a smaller operation, is making life harder, and making it difficult for the team to react as quickly as it needs to.

There have been some good moments, such as in Azerbaijan, where Sergio Perez was sixth, and Lance Stroll's fourth place in Germany, but the car hasn't been consistent enough. The drivers have struggled with instability at corner entry, which is likely down to control of the aero centre of pressure, although the upgrade introduced at Hockenheim did appear to improve things before the difficult Hungaroring weekend.

The team remains a strong one, with good technical leadership with Andy Green and a strong staff so hopefully it will recover in the second half of the year.

10 Williams

Average 2019 performance: 104.373%
Change from 2018: 0.767% loss
Points: 1

Williams's performance trend

Performance compared over last 4 races of 2018 and the first 12 races of 2019

Heading into 2019, the only way seemed to be up for Williams but it's had a terrible season. Going right back to the problems with the car build and then parting company with Paddy Lowe, it's been a long, hard battle to try to get on terms with the back of the midfield.

There was an improved performance in Hungary, with George Russell only just missing Q2, but it's going to need a few more races before we can say with any confidence that Williams has taken a step forward.

Williams is putting a lot of effort into understanding its problems. Lowe carried the can but there will also be wider problems that have led the team astray.

As I said pre-season, there's a lot of good bits on the car but I'm not sure it all works together. The first half-dozen races were all about regrouping after the initial shock, but since then, with Patrick Head back to offer a little stability in the interim, there have been some good signs. That said, we're still hearing about parts shaking themselves to pieces.

When these parts are developed in the windtunnel, they will be optimised to within tenths of a millimetre or tenths of a degree, so clearly shaking themselves to death shows there is a problem with the overall approach taken by the design department. The work being done now will be key to ensuring there isn't a repeat in 2020.

Performance swing 2018/19 (%)

Who has gained (left) or lost ground (right) compared to last year

There are still nine races to go, and with the Belgian and Italian GPs coming up that's two big races for Ferrari where it will hope its package can go well.

There's no reason to expect Mercedes to do anything other than seal both championships, but if Ferrari can do better at getting the best out of its car and Red Bull, Honda and Verstappen keep improving then there's every chance the second half of the season can pick up in the exciting fashion where the first half left off.

Later this month, Gary Anderson will be answering your questions again in our next Ask Gary feature. Got a question for him? Send it to askgary@autosport.com, use #askgaryF1 on Twitter or look out for our posts on Facebook and Instagram giving you the chance to have your question answered