F1's 'big four' teams' real 2019 performance levels revealed

We all hoped the changes to the technical regulations of the front wings would put a cat among the pigeons and mix up the running order. After the first pre-season test, everyone thought that might have happened, but we were knocked back to reality when Mercedes upped its game for the second test. Worse was to follow in the first race of the season. Mercedes dominated and the writing was on the wall.

Mercedes did win both world championships with races to spare, but there were hurdles to overcome. Ferrari fought back in the second half of the season, but it was too little too late. It also fired up Mercedes, which dug deep and ended the season as it began with a dominant performance in Abu Dhabi.

Ferrari did the opposite and imploded - on the driver front and with pitwall indecision. Mercedes won fair and square, but Ferrari helped it with some inexplicable actions.

No one race decides the champion and, over 21 races, some cars will suit one circuit better than another. But over the year it all washes out, so to evaluate the performance over the season I've taken every team's fastest lap time set on each weekend. This is converted into a percentage of the outright fastest to allow performance to be compared from circuit to circuit.

How the 2019 F1 field stacks up

Measuring the outright pace of each car this season (%)

I've also divided the season into four-race blocks to look at each team's development rate. The first race of the season is separate to the remaining five four-race blocks given that Albert Park is an unrepresentative track and, as the first race of the year, can catch some by surprise.

For all the points-based numbers I have converted them to a percentage of the maximum possible. This is because the number of races varies but it allows comparison across seasons.

First, let's look at the top three teams - plus Renault, which as a full works team should be up with the lead group even though it only finished fifth in the world championship.

The 'big four' constructors' performance

Comparing the pace of Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and Renault

Mercedes

For any team to win six successive world championship doubles is impressive. The fact that it has kept focus and not burned out proves how well its structure works.

During 2019, Mercedes was fastest on 10 occasions, so a 48% record, but it thrived in the races. The way Mercedes runs the car with a little bit of extra downforce allows it to look after the Pirelli tyres better than the others. If you can do that, the strategic window opens up and allows flexibility - say, if you want to extend a stint.

Season performance average 100.179%
Pole positions 10 (48%)
Front-row lockouts 8 (38%, including Abu Dhabi)
Race wins 15 (71%)
Race 1-2s 9 (43%)
Points 2019 739 (80%) Points 2018 655 (72%)
Podiums 32 (76%)
Fastest laps 9 (43%)

It's also interesting to see how Mercedes progressed from the last four races of 2018, and how its '19 development programme affected performance.

Mercedes' development

Measuring how the team performed at each stage of the season (%)

Mercedes did drop off just that little bit as the season progressed and was never quite as competitive as at the end of 2018, but it's the overall season that's important and Mercedes clearly proved its consistency to be superior to the rest. The big question is what would have happened without Hamilton there.

Here's how the intra-team battle played out.

School report

If Mercedes keeps doing what it's doing in the design department then there are more pole positions, race wins and championships coming its way. However, it might just need to focus a little on some of the strategy decisions. Just like Michael Schumacher, Lewis Hamilton has taken the bull by the horns and on most occasions made the strategies work. But if others are closer, that won't always be possible.

Ferrari

This was another season of what might have been as, on far too many occasions, the team's decisions and driver squabbles threw results away. To beat Mercedes fair and square, Ferrari must eliminate these increasing errors.

In pre-season testing, Ferrari looked to be bang on the pace. As the season progressed, it was a question of who got it right first and had most potential for development with their car concepts. But Ferrari basically didn't show up in Australia, lapping 0.875% off the pace - its worst of the season.

If you are going to win a championship, you can't give that much performance away to your main rival. Doing so reduces the pressure and allowed Mercedes to get into its stride with a run of eight consecutive victories.

Ferrari has had the potential over the past three years at least to be nipping at the heels of Mercedes. But it has let this potential slip, to the point that I wonder if it will ever be able to keep up a championship challenge over a full season.

Season performance average 100.328%
Pole positions 9 (43%)
Front-row lockouts 4 (19%)
Race wins 3 (14%)
Race 1-2s 1 (5%)
Points 2019 504 (54%) Points 2018 571 (63%)
Podiums 19 (45%)
Fastest laps 6 (29%)

It hit a rich vein of performance after the summer break, which was questioned by rival teams as it seemed to be down to power unit performance. A few teams asked for clarifications on fuel usage and, at this point - at least on face value - Ferrari did seem to drop off a bit. This did coincide with running a little more downforce to protect the tyres, or so the team said, but it didn't really gain much and just cost straightline speed.

Ferrari's development

Measuring how the team performed at each stage of the season (%)

The team-mate battle numbers show that it's time for Vettel to stand aside and allow the team to focus on Leclerc, but I don't think he will do that as he is still a top-class driver. He doesn't seem to take into account that some of the young upstarts are the future, and he doesn't learn from his mistakes and just keeps making them, meaning Ferrari needs to intervene to keep things under control. Unfortunately, this is something Ferrari is bad at managing.

School report

Ferrari put all the work in, spent the money, employed the top drivers but then threw it all away in the exams by not learning from the past. Stop making the same mistakes.

Next season, Ferrari must be squeaky clean in how it runs its power unit. Rivals will be out to get them and if there's the slightest hint of something questionable, they will be on to the FIA like a rat up a drainpipe.

Team principal Mattia Binotto is a clever guy but the upper management must decide how to use him. You can only concentrate on one role and he's not got the best out of either in terms of being team principal or leading the technical side. This might need to change if Ferrari is to be a threat next year or for the major rules changes in 2021.

Red Bull

The change from a customer Renault to a works Honda power unit made 2019 a building year for Red Bull, but it seemed to be a much happier season for the team than any previous one in the hybrid era given that it now has an engine supplier it's not at loggerheads with. Both Red Bull and Honda are pulling in the same direction, which is vital if they are going to challenge for the championship.

Season performance average 100.652%
Pole positions 2 (9%)
Front-row lockouts 0
Race wins 3 (14%)
Race 1-2s 0
Points 2019 417 (45%) Points 2018 419 (46%)
Podiums 9 (21%)
Fastest laps 5 (24%)

Red Bull lost a little performance initially compared to its end of 2018 performance, which it put down to a lack of correlation between the windtunnel and real-world performance of the front wing. This was rectified with a series of tweaks up to and including the Austrian Grand Prix, which started to pay dividends with Max Verstappen's win there.

Honda built confidence in its willingness to push the envelope just that little bit more, with a strong end to the season giving both team and engine supplier confidence going into 2020.

Red Bull's development

Measuring how the team performed at each stage of the season (%)

We don't need the driver comparison to see how strong Verstappen was. For the first half of the season he was up against Pierre Gasly, who did set two fastest laps but didn't show what was expected. Then he took on Alex Albon, who absorbed the pressure of a top team much better than Gasly and looked like someone for the future. Hopefully Red Bull won't be rash and will stick with Albon because it needs a second driver who can rack up points, and I'm pretty sure he will be that man - although we won't really know until 2020 starts to unfold.

School report

Red Bull is often very confident of what circuits suit its car philosophy, but being quick with the potential to win at only a few circuits over the season will never bring championship success. The team needs to understand why its car is not so competitive at other circuits and address this problem; even if it loses a little where it currently is good, the overall average will be much improved.

Renault

This year was the season Renault was supposed to open up a gap to the privateers' championship and actually cut its deficit to the big three. That didn't happen and the huge performance update that was promised for the French GP at Paul Ricard did little to help with that.

The hiring of Daniel Ricciardo was a statement of intent, but the impact was more or less invisible. Both drivers were basically as competitive as each other and given the tools, they had the potential to take podium finishes - but neither had them.

Renault as a team tried far too often to grab something from nothing by running its cars with tyres that were well past their sell-by date. On the odd occasion, things work out for you, but to really know where you stand you have to take the fight to the others and do your best to beat them with out-and-out performance.

Renault was also always fairly quick on the straights, leading some within the team to believe and actually publicly state that they have the best power unit in the pitlane. Wrong, as despite clear improvements the car just doesn't have the downforce and, in turn, the car is low on drag. Good for straightline speed, not for lap time.

Season performance average 101.769%
Best grid 4th (x1)
Best race finish 4th (x1)
Points 2019 91 (10%) Points 2018 122 (13%)
Podiums 0
Fastest laps 0

Renault just about stood still relative to last year despite a slight gain on the front. With such a big gap, there should have been room for improvement over the season, but Renault didn't achieve that. They just about stood still relative to last year and there was not a lot different during the season. Standing still means you are doing as good as the best, however with such a big gap you have more room for improvement and they didn't really achieve that.

Renault's development

Measuring how the team performed at each stage of the season (%)

The intra-team battle shows there wasn't anything worth talking about between the two drivers, and it might have been very different had Hulkenberg kept it on the road in Germany when on target for a podium finish. Now he's replaced by Esteban Ocon, which I'm not sure is too positive a move - but he is French.

School report

For quite a few seasons, Renault has been in a staff-building process and even towards the end of the season there have been hirings and firings - with technical director Nick Chester on his way and Pat Fry due to join next year. This is all good provided the people you are bringing in fit into the jigsaw that's there already, otherwise it takes time to rebuild the structure to integrate them.

It's also not always the personnel that are going that are at fault. Sometimes the people that are making those decisions are the ones that need looking at closely.

Renault has Alain Prost, who is supposed to be to Renault what Niki Lauda was to Mercedes. With his experience in successful, championship-winning teams he should be able to weed out the deadwood just as Niki was able to do for Mercedes, but either he is living the easy life or the top management don't want to listen to him.

Power unit manufacturers

Ferrari gets the most column inches and there is usually no smoke without fire given its performance, but pushing the regulations to the limit is what F1 is all about. All's fair in love, war and F1.

Here is my power unit order of merit:

1 Ferrari

I really do hope Ferrari hasn't been up to any skullduggery - and if it has, then eventually it will need to suffer the consequences. But I genuinely believe that anything they have done is nothing other than exploiting grey areas. The FIA is aware of these potential areas and is one by one closing them down, so Ferrari just has to stay clean and even perhaps ask the FIA a few questions of its own that might just hurt the momentum of the other manufacturers.

2 Honda

On face value, Honda has come on leaps and bounds and I'm pretty sure that results from its integration with first Toro Rosso in 2018, which allowed it to recover from the disastrous start to the supply deal with McLaren, and then this year with both Red Bull teams and double the data.

Next season is a big one for Honda. Red Bull and Verstappen want to win races - not just a few, but enough to go for the championship. If that doesn't happen, then Verstappen will be packing his bags.

3 Mercedes

There's not much you can say about Mercedes. It might not be top of the pile anymore, but its package is still plenty good enough to get the job done. Winning both championships six years in a row shows it's not suffering anywhere and offers performance reliability.

But I expect a decent step from it for 2020. Valtteri Bottas had a problem late on and had two new engines in Abu Dhabi, so getting that race distance on something new - even if it wasn't using it to its full capacity - is critical to your mindset over the winter.

4 Renault

Renault still has to show that it's able to mix it with the other three. If it wasn't for McLaren's performance this year, the powers that be sitting in the big office at Renault would probably not be very happy to keep spending the amount of money required.

Abiteboul is always saying positive things, but the fact is Renault has struggled in the hybrid era. McLaren making the decision to move to a Mercedes power unit is a simple one - it believes it to be a better package. This leaves Renault on its own for 2021 with only its works team. It needs another step forward next year or I fear Renault might not be playing in 2021.