Analysis: Why both Racing Bulls were ahead of Verstappen on Friday in Japan

"I think the people at Racing Bulls were a bit surprised themselves by the good car they've built this year," Max Verstappen told reporters on Thursday at the Japanese Grand Prix.

Two weeks ago in China, the world champion made it clear that his struggling team-mate Liam Lawson would be faster in the Racing Bulls car than in Red Bull’s RB21, mainly because the VCARB 02 is “easier to drive”.

During Friday’s practice sessions in Suzuka, Verstappen’s claim appeared to hold up. In FP2 Isack Hadjar secured third, just four tenths of a second behind the fastest McLarens, while the newly demoted Lawson finished in P5, right behind Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton.

Verstappen was eighth, though the margin to his now former team-mate was measurable in the hundredths of a second.

The result gives credence to what all the drivers in the Red Bull family said after practice. Lawson mentioned that the VCARB02 has a “wider operating window” than the Red Bull car, essentially confirming what everyone in the paddock already suspected.

Verstappen, in turn, admitted that Red Bull is yet to fully resolve its issues. The team introduced some small updates to the car this weekend – most likely signed off for production before the start of the season – but the four-time world champion concluded there is still work to do: "We tried various things with the car, but a lot of them didn’t work as we had hoped."

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

New Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda, whose P18 wasn’t representative since one of the four red flags forced him to skip his qualifying-simulation run, also acknowledged that he had been "struggling somewhat".

PLUS: How Tsunoda and Verstappen's laps compare on eye-opening first day in Japan

The first practice session went better than expected, according to Tsunoda, but afterwards he found that the RB21 felt significantly different than it did in the simulator.

Tsunoda was more upbeat before getting in the car, saying that based on simulator runs the car’s difficulty had been somewhat exaggerated. Afterwards he admitted its real-life performance painted a different picture.

Comparing Verstappen’s and Hadjar’s laps

Tsunoda’s comments highlight that the Racing Bulls car is at least more driver-friendly than the Red Bull, although the RB21 should still have a slightly higher performance ceiling. But there are important caveats to Friday’s results.

A closer look at the data reveals Racing Bulls mainly gained time over Verstappen on the straights – just as Tsunoda was faster in straight-line sections during the first practice.

This could theoretically indicate something about set-up choices, but it's more likely fuel levels and engine modes played a role – factors that could also explain why Tsunoda was relatively fast, perhaps to make a strong impression in front of his home crowd.

Photo by: F1-Tempo

Red Bull boss Christian Horner naturally denied his team artificially boosted Tsunoda’s FP1 performance in this way but, given the situation, he would say that, wouldn’t he?

Nevertheless, the data shows Tsunoda mainly gained time in various traction phases in FP1.

When comparing Hadjar’s (P3) and Verstappen’s (P8) laps in FP2, a similar trend emerges. Verstappen was about two and a half tenths faster than Hadjar coming out of the Esses, as illustrated in the telemetry image above. Lawson mentioned that the Esses have become even more intense due to the new asphalt, almost "pulling drivers' heads off their shoulders".

Looking at our other telemetry overlay, below, adds some important context to this. Most of the full-throttle sections are highlighted in white, indicating that Hadjar gained most of his time in these areas – particularly in traction phases.

At the hairpin and when entering Spoon, Verstappen gains time again – just as he did in the Esses – putting him 0.130s ahead of Hadjar’s lap time as he exits Spoon. That advantage is then negated on the full-throttle stretch leading to the final chicane, emphasising that the Racing Bulls car is gaining on the straights.

This is further reinforced by the fact Verstappen went through 130R faster than Hadjar. After accelerating out of the final chicane, Verstappen is just slightly ahead of Hadjar’s delta time but, in the sprint to the finish line, this turns into a 0.152s advantage for the Racing Bulls driver.

Photo by: F1-Tempo

The overall picture shows that, while Racing Bulls performed surprisingly well and Red Bull still has a lot of work to do at Suzuka, the sight of both sister-team cars ahead of Verstappen may not be entirely representative.

There are many ‘hidden’ variables during Friday practice. For instance, Helmut Marko has frequently pointed out that Red Bull tends to run cautious engine modes in these sessions – which, while not explaining away the RB21’s vices, is an important factor to keep in mind when analysing the results.

Do the long runs on Friday actually mean anything?

Most teams factor a race simulation into their FP2 run plans, which we can analyse to give some insight into race pace. Circumstances at Suzuka rendered that more challenging than usual.

Four red flags made for a staccato second practice session that yielded little useful data, meaning the numbers below – sourced from data partner PACETEQ – are based on the first session. Here the run plans are different and usually a little shorter.

Despite this, the overview confirms McLaren is strong and once again the clear favourite this weekend. Lando Norris recorded the fastest extended run while also maintaining relatively low tyre degradation – despite his radio complaints about graining.

Behind, the order is less definitive. For instance, Aston Martin’s runs were very short and showed significant tyre wear, so its pace would have inevitably dropped over a longer stint. The same applies to the next name on the list, who doesn’t really belong there: Nico Hulkenberg.

All things considered, George Russell emerged as McLaren’s closest challenger – a position with which Norris and Oscar Piastri concurred. The Mercedes driver was about 0.32s per lap slower, placing him just ahead of the Ferraris.

Red Bull’s numbers, on the other hand, look significantly worse, with two key caveats. First, the long runs in this session weren’t particularly telling.

Second, the overall picture only confirms what Verstappen already acknowledged: Friday was a tough day for Red Bull, a team that has a lot of work ahead.