Verstappen’s words explained: Why Red Bull’s turnaround is so different this time

It probably won't make the history books. In the long run – when we are all old and grey – the 2026 season will likely be remembered for two reasons: Kimi Antonelli becoming the youngest world champion of all time and Formula 1's troubled start under the new regulations, which critics could quite reasonably describe as a false start. The year in which the pinnacle of motorsport, at times during the opening months, resembled a real-life version of Mario Kart more than anything else.

The positive is that the FIA and F1 both recognise that they have gone too far towards electrification, resulting in overly complex power units. This is largely because they listened too much to the OEMs behind the scenes, so hopefully 2026 can, in the longer term, be seen as a lesson for the future.

As for Antonelli's impending record – which he will take from Sebastian Vettel by approximately three years – it seems fairly likely that this new benchmark will remain in the history books for a long time. Under the current superlicence rules, it seems an enormous challenge for anyone to become world champion as a teenager, which is pretty much what would be required to break the 20-year-old’s forthcoming record.

From 'paper car' to team to beat?

If Max Verstappen finishes second or third in the 2026 championship, it will merely be a footnote in those same history books. Nobody will care all that much, least of all the driver himself. When I asked Verstappen in Singapore whether finishing second or third this year would mean anything more given Red Bull's difficult start, the answer was crystal clear.

“No, because ultimately you're not winning. You're not becoming world champion, and that's the only thing that matters to me.”

Finishing second or third in the final standings would actually earn Verstappen an unwanted trip to Shanghai for the mandatory FIA gala on 12 December. But he was quite clear about the value of such a position in the standings: absolutely nothing.

A late resurgence has Verstappen 17 points behind second-placed Russell

Photo by: Daniel Ceng / Anadolu via Getty Images

Nevertheless, after Red Bull's dreadful start under the new regulations – which saw the team fighting Haas and Alpine in China and Japan – it is noteworthy that Verstappen is now just 17 points away from the runner-up position currently occupied by George Russell.

Or, to make the contrast even starker: what was still being called a 'paper car' during qualifying at Monza just over a month ago has since been transformed into two victories and a second place (by just 0.196 seconds) in the most recent triple-header. An extraordinary turnaround and one that, according to Russell, has even made Red Bull the 'team to beat' in F1.

The key differences between the 2025 turnaround and this year

Last year, Red Bull also turned around a difficult start to the season. Back then, Verstappen finished on the podium in every grand prix after the summer break, and the turnaround almost led to his fifth world title. When the chequered flag fell in Abu Dhabi, his remarkable comeback ended just two points behind eventual world champion Lando Norris.

This time, there has been no specific breakthrough in terms of set-up; the car was simply well below par at the beginning of the year. The power unit surprised many in the paddock, but on the chassis side, the RB22 fell seriously short during the opening months

Yet the way the season has been turned around in each case is completely different. This year's turnaround will logically not deliver another shot at the world title – it has come far too late for that – but the circumstances behind the turnaround are also different from 15 months ago.

Back then, the RB21's balance was a major problem – on many weekends even an insurmountable one – but the car fundamentally had potential. Red Bull simply failed to extract that potential on a regular basis until the summer break. The breakthrough was therefore not so much about new parts or upgrades, but rather about set-up.

Red Bull eventually found that it could run the RB21 in a way the team had long considered impossible, which allowed it to unlock the car's potential after all. In that sense, 2025 can even be regarded as a missed opportunity. Because if that potential had been in the car all along, the first half of that season could have gone better, and that fifth world title might well have been possible.

Last year Verstappen almost turned a 100+-point deficit into a fifth title

Photo by: Clive Rose / Getty Images

Verstappen confirmed this theory last year, by the way, although naturally there is little point dwelling on the past, and he is the last person who wants to think in 'what if' scenarios. That brings us back to another entertaining moment on American soil: the press conference in Miami after Norris's first F1 victory. When I asked Verstappen about the unfortunate timing of the safety car, he responded with the now-famous quote: “That’s always if, if, right? If my mum had balls, she would have been my dad.” The same applies to Red Bull's potential in 2025.

More importantly, this year's turnaround is completely different. This time, there has been no specific breakthrough in terms of set-up; the car was simply well below par at the beginning of the year. The power unit surprised many in the paddock, but on the chassis side, the RB22 fell seriously short during the opening months.

Red Bull was fighting Haas and Alpine, and no set-up direction could have prevented that. In fact, Verstappen explained that Red Bull tried everything with the car during those weeks, but there was simply no more performance to be found: the team was a distant fourth, which sometimes sank into the quicksand of the midfield.

This year, the turnaround has been entirely down to desperately needed upgrades, and those upgrades have had an immense effect, as can also be seen from the figures provided by data partner Paceteq.

In Australia, Red Bull was 1.377 seconds per lap off the pace in the calculated race pace figures. In China, the deficit was 1.337 seconds, and in Japan it was 1.052 seconds. In Belgium and Hungary – the final two race weekends before the summer break – that margin had been reduced to just two tenths per lap, an immense step forward that was partly down to weight reduction and partly to improvements to the aerodynamic package.

At the beginning of the second half of the season, Red Bull still believed that the final two or three tenths would be the hardest to find, something team principal Laurent Mekies repeatedly stated. It explains why Verstappen more or less suggested at Monza that he would not win a single race in 2026.

A Baku upgrade was the real turning point for Red Bull

Photo by: Alex Pantling / LAT Images via Getty Images

But then came the Baku upgrade. The final step of the year, and one that truly brought Red Bull back into contention for victories. That upgrade consisted mainly of a new floor and revised sidepods, although according to Verstappen – beyond the pure gains in load – it was even more important that the upgrade made the car more predictable and better balanced.

The aspect that gives Verstappen the most confidence for 2027

The end result may look similar – Red Bull has turned around a difficult start in both cases – but the way it has happened behind the scenes is completely different.

“Two completely different cars as well, right, with the regulations,” Verstappen said when asked by Autosport to compare both turnarounds. “And also, two completely different problems that we had to find lap time. Plus, of course, also this year with the engine side of things, I think for everyone it's been a bit complicated at times to get the most out of it.

The fact that every upgrade package has hit the mark this year gives Verstappen confidence for next season, and he rightly pointed out in Singapore that not every top team can say that all its upgrades have unequivocally worked

“But from race one to now, I think we've gained a lot of experience. We are still not where we want to be, but I guess everyone in the paddock will say the same thing. But we have learned so much and definitely also on the car side we have fixed a lot of our weaknesses. We just need to keep improving now and keep learning this year because we can also apply those lessons going into next year.”

As for next year, one aspect gives Verstappen the most confidence: the fact that every upgrade this season has done what it was supposed to do and what was expected of it. Yes, that was desperately needed given the enormous deficit at the beginning of the year, but overcoming that deficit was no guarantee, as Red Bull has frequently struggled with correlation problems in recent years.

The fact that every upgrade package has hit the mark this year gives Verstappen confidence for next season, and he rightly pointed out in Singapore that not every top team can say that all its upgrades have unequivocally worked. Towards the end of an exceptionally difficult year, that may well be the biggest positive of all – one that will not make the history books this year, but perhaps will in the future.