Why Red Bull should sign F1's 'worst' driver

Stoffel Vandoorne is the only driver who has failed to outqualify his team-mate in 2018. He hasn't scored a point for nine races. The McLaren team that has had him on its books since '13 is on the brink of giving up on him. He seems all washed up in Formula 1, and superficially looks like the worst performer of the season.

You might believe Vandoorne has been 'found out'. But he's still the driver that tore up the junior categories on his way to grand prix racing and that is what makes him the ideal solution to the Toro Rosso driver shortage that Red Bull faces ahead of 2019.

While this might be considered a marriage of convenience for a 'failed' driver and a junior scheme that is lacking prospects who qualify for a superlicence, it's one that could pay off for both. Big time.

Vandoorne has not forgotten how to drive, and he's clearly not out of his depth in F1. Remember, this is a driver who scored a point on his one-off debut in a McLaren-Honda in Bahrain 2016 - outqualifying Jenson Button in a car he'd not driven before Friday practice at that event.

He's a driver who won the fiercely competitive Formula Renault Eurocup, finished second in Formula Renault 3.5 at its competitive peak in his rookie season and went on to win GP2 in 2015. Oh, and he was a race winner in Japanese Super Formula. That's quite some CV.

Yet if he is to stay on the grid next year, unless something changes dramatically it's only Toro Rosso and Sauber - on top of McLaren - that could conceivably give Vandoorne that second chance.

Had his trajectory improved, Vandoorne would surely have been confirmed by McLaren alongside Carlos Sainz Jr for 2019 by now

But why does he deserve a second chance? Usually, you'd demand a driver in the second half of their second full season to have made more progress and started to achieve a consistently high standard of performance. Particularly if they are a driver coming into F1 with the reputation of Vandoorne.

This is true, but Vandoorne is not in a normal situation. He's been a sideshow in the McLaren/Honda/Renault/Fernando Alonso circus for the past 18 months and his reputation has been destroyed.

Earlier this season, it seemed Vandoorne was on the brink of a breakthrough. In 2017, he had a difficult first half of the year, but intensive work on and off track allowed him to have a stronger second half of the season.

After an up and down first part of 2018, where he struggled with the car's inherent rear-end instability, Vandoorne was as quick as, and perhaps even quicker than team-mate Alonso in Monaco before a rear suspension problem manifested itself in qualifying and also caused significant tyre graining in the race.

In Montreal, one of his worst circuits of 2017, he was just 0.009 seconds off Alonso in qualifying. This confirmed Vandoorne had made significant progress in balancing up his natural driving style - turning in aggressively and carrying good speed into the corner - while ensuring he didn't ask too much of the car and compromise the exit.

Had that trajectory continued, along with improvements to a few other key areas such as his tendency not to make great starts, Vandoorne would surely have been confirmed by McLaren alongside Carlos Sainz Jr for 2019 by now.

But car problems then intervened. In Austria, both McLaren drivers struggled with losing aero parts after striking sausage kerbs, and then at the British and German Grands Prix Vandoorne was battling a car problem that meant he simply didn't have the same level of downforce as Alonso.

"The problems really started at Silverstone," said Vandoorne after Hockenheim qualifying last month.

"From FP1, the first lap I did, I felt the car [was] really different to what it was before and really undriveable, just not the normal feeling anymore. Since then, every session we were last by quite a big margin.

"The only part I can take out of it is that it is visible in the data as well, it's not like you don't know how to drive a car anymore.

"We found ourself in a similar place [to Silverstone] so a lot of work was done on Friday night to change some other bits that we didn't change before and going into qualifying it was an unknown because of the wet FP3 and we saw similar issues again."

There was a chassis change for Vandoorne going into Silverstone, albeit to one that had been previously used, and a switch back for the Hungaroring race seemed to restore his form. There, he was set to finish ninth and was running three seconds behind Alonso after 49 laps when his gearbox failed.

Again, the hope was that this was the reset. But at Spa, he had all sorts of problems during Friday practice - in the first part of the second session describing the car as "undriveable", before having the misfortune to be shoved off the track by the unsighted Valtteri Bottas on Saturday morning. In the race, a justified gamble on an early pitstop under the safety car ensured he spent the afternoon at the back.

The Spa weekend, which Vandoorne went into presumably hoping to continue his Hungaroring form, seems to have been the tipping point for him. After Friday practice, during which possible replacement Lando Norris also ran, Vandoorne said "first of all the team should give a car that is able to run on track before we can really compare".

He added that the problems seemed to fall on his side of the garage far more than for Alonso. This certainly seems to be the case. And while McLaren would not do this deliberately, it's not unusual for a team with a dominant driver and plenty of other problems to struggle to give both drivers its best.

Following the race, Vandoorne questioned McLaren's development rate. After a season of toeing the party line, saying the right things while his career gets away from him, it seems Vandoorne has decided to bare his teeth. That fighting spirit is a positive for any prospective future employer. Who wants a driver who takes this kind of thing lying down?

On average, Vandoorne has been 0.368s behind Alonso in qualifying. Eliminate the qualifying sessions in which a comparison has not been entirely fair and that comes down to 0.260s. That's not brilliant by any means, but it's perhaps better than it seems.

Has Vandoorne extracted the maximum from his situation with McLaren? Probably not, as even amid the problems he's had in an unstable team, he's had a disappointing season. This is elite sport and drivers must make the best of whatever their situation is, and Vandoorne hasn't. But you also must consider just how difficult the situation has been.

What he needs is a fresh start, a reset. After all, the last two relatively inexperienced drivers to be run by McLaren - Kevin Magnussen and Sergio Perez - have done pretty well since leaving the team.

That reset is what Toro Rosso could provide. It's not clear what Red Bull's mindset is when it comes to selecting a driver for its junior team, or whether Vandoorne is of any interest to the squad. But he should be.

The options for Toro Rosso are limited. It has to fill the seat of the Red Bull Racing bound Pierre Gasly, and given the attempt to replace Brendon Hartley with Norris earlier this season, the New Zealander is on shaky ground.

Red Bull could gain a revitalised driver able to pick up where he left off before things came undone with McLaren

Some would like to see Formula 3 European Championship leader and 2017 Macau Grand Prix winner Dan Ticktum promoted. But even if he closes out the F3 title, he won't have sufficient superlicence points to graduate without a change in the rules.

Honda is keen for one of its Japanese proteges to race for it in F1, but none of its juniors are close to the number of superlicence points required, despite Formula 2 racer Nirei Fukuzumi being favoured.

So that leaves no choice but to bring in a driver with no connections to the scheme, or repeat its surprise signing of an ex-Red Bull junior, as it did with Hartley last year.

At worst, in Vandoorne Red Bull would gain a driver with contemporary experience, two years under his belt and knowledge of working with Honda who will do a solid job as a placeholder for a year. At best, Red Bull could gain a revitalised driver able to pick up where he left off before things came undone with McLaren.

It would also gain a driver who is an ideal Gasly replacement, with a driving style not dissimilar to the Frenchman - what might be termed the Sebastian Vettel style of attacking on the brakes and rotating the rear to the apex.

And Vandoorne would be utterly determined to prove his worth after his McLaren experience. He's a fast driver, no question, and one who really should be heading towards his best years as he turns 27 at the start of next season.

Red Bull will have seen plenty of Vandoorne, who has defeated some of its proteges over the years. Vandoorne beat Daniil Kvyat to the 2012 Renault Eurocup title, and finished ahead of Antonio Felix da Costa (but behind Magnussen) in FR3.5 a year later. Red Bull will know all about his prowess at that level.

So perhaps there will be great appeal in attempting to recycle a driver who has shown such prodigious ability in the past?

Yes, it would be a gamble. It might simply be that Vandoorne has been found out and can't hack the pressures and demands of grand prix racing. And considering Helmut Marko prizes drivers who are able to thrive in adversity, Vandoorne's McLaren stint might eliminate him from consideration.

But given Toro Rosso has no standout alternatives, it might have to go a little unorthodox with its driver selection. This is why you could also make a case for it bringing back a driver such as 2017/18 Formula E champion Jean-Eric Vergne, who has evolved into a much more rounded driver since being dropped by the Red Bull scheme at the end of '14.

Signing a non-Red Bull junior wouldn't be unprecedented, as Toro Rosso did so when it ran four-time Champ Car champion Sebastien Bourdais in 2008 and the first half of '09 - albeit without great success.

And for Vandoorne, it would be a fresh start and a chance to show what he's capable of. Expectations would have to be set high, and he would be expected to get it together quickly and hit the ground running. If he does so, then perhaps the driver we once thought Vandoorne could be will be back.

Outside of Toro Rosso, Sauber appeared to be the other option for a move - but he has seemingly been ruled out even though team principal Frederic Vasseur would know exactly how to get the best out of him.

There's every chance Vandoorne won't get a second chance in F1. Often drivers don't, and for all the problems surrounding him at McLaren he will have had two full seasons to convince the team, or another one, that he's worth persevering with.

Usually you'd say he'd had his chance. But Vandoorne was so strong in the junior categories and those who worked with him speak so highly of him that he could still be worth a roll of the dice.

If anyone does take the gamble, there's every chance Vandoorne would repay them in spades. This is what makes him worthy of another F1 shot. After all, he potentially offers the most valuable commodity there is in F1: performance.

Even if he hasn't shown that anywhere near enough over the past 18 months.