What Red Bull needs to beat Mercedes

For all the change that 2020 has brought to Formula 1, there seemingly remains one reliable constant. As has been the case in each of the last six years since F1's hybrid power units were introduced in 2014, Mercedes appears destined to win another title double, with Red Bull boss Christian Horner praising its "most complete and rounded car" yet after its eighth win from 10 races at the Russian Grand Prix.

Red Bull has been the only team capable of challenging the Black Arrows in 2020, and indeed remains one of only two teams (the other being the sister AlphaTauri squad in the freak Italian GP) to deny Mercedes a clean sweep this year.

After that Sochi weekend, where Max Verstappen finished second for the fourth time this season - a tally extended to five last weekend at the Nurburgring - Horner said there was "no silver bullet" to beating Mercedes, which Toto Wolff revealed has already begun focusing its attentions on next year's car.

But what could be the missing ingredient? Does Red Bull need another driver of the same calibre of Verstappen as a number two? Is the Honda power unit good enough? Did it miss a trick by not developing its own version of Mercedes' innovative Dual Axis Steering (DAS) system? Or does it need a completely fresh approach?

Let's look first at the driver situation. Verstappen is pretty much on his own when it comes to challenging the Mercedes duo of Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas. Alexander Albon has frequently cited a lack of confidence in the often aerodynamically unstable RB16 as the key factor in his deficit and, at times, it seems that he has unlocked what it takes to drive the chassis to its limits only for another mishap to trip him over at the last hurdle.

PLUS: The challenge of emulating Verstappen in the same car

In what is the second-fastest car on the grid, Albon is currently seventh in the standings behind Daniel Ricciardo, Sergio Perez (who has missed two races) and Lando Norris - which is a big problem for Red Bull in the constructors' championship. He did score a first podium at Mugello after Verstappen's DNF, but two difficult weekends at Sochi and the Nurburgring suggest he hasn't been able to build on it.

But, despite his breakthrough Monza victory, I'm not convinced that simply plugging Pierre Gasly back into the second Red Bull would make much difference either. Like his father Jos, who I worked with briefly at Benetton, Verstappen is a tough customer who is not afraid to put his car in places you don't think are possible.

His overtaking prowess is well-known and he is not afraid to punch above his weight - witness his duel with Hamilton for fastest lap at the Nurburgring. So, this is what Red Bull needs to replicate: someone who can help develop the chassis further and not complain that it does not suit his driving style.

Look back at the driver pairings who have pushed each other to greater things over the past 30 years and several combinations stick out. You have Nigel Mansell/Nelson Piquet at Williams, Ayrton Senna/Alain Prost at McLaren, Michael Schumacher/Rubens Barrichello at Ferrari, Sebastian Vettel/Mark Webber at Red Bull and Lewis Hamilton/Nico Rosberg at Mercedes.

Now that Honda has announced that it is quitting F1 at the end of 2021, there are plenty of question marks over Red Bull's next move

Verstappen is eminently capable of taking the fight to Mercedes, but Red Bull needs to have someone capable of challenging him: a point where Albon this year, like Gasly last year, has been found wanting.

Perez, or even super-sub Nico Hulkenberg, would be suitable candidates if Red Bull was inclined to make a change. Both will be free agents next year and race well. Helmut Marko even talked up Hulkenberg's prospects after his recent Eifel GP heroics, where he came from the back of the grid to eighth in place of an unwell Lance Stroll.

PLUS: Why Hulkenberg's Red Bull chance is out of his hands

But, perhaps, it is the case that the chassis is tricky to set-up. Red Bull has certainly kept with the high rake approach, which many others have since copied. It also seems that the team is still looking for the ideal front suspension set-up, which has changed a few times recently.

When it comes to tyre management however, the Red Bull is kinder on its tyres than most - as we saw at Silverstone in the 70th Anniversary GP, which Verstappen won - so I'm not sure that a dose of DAS would make up the difference. As Wolff himself said at the Nurburgring, it's "not the game-changer, the silver bullet like everyone believes".

When it comes to aerodynamics, there is no better designer and visionary than Adrian Newey, so I doubt that the problem lies there. Like other teams, Red Bull is constantly bringing updates to suit the demands of the different circuits.

The next question concerning performance is the power unit. Honda has endured some hard years of learning and developing since it severed its ties with McLaren and became a partner to a bona fide frontrunner in Red Bull for 2019. It has now won five grands prix (including with Gasly and AlphaTauri at Monza) and seems to have found the power to equal Mercedes, but is that enough?

The way engines are packaged also comes under scrutiny. Is the Mercedes more efficient in the way the air is channelled through the bodywork to the back of the car? The size and position of radiators and intercoolers, as well as the cooling of the battery packs are all important too, as this contributes to the drag produced as the car travels through the air.

Now that Honda has announced that it is quitting F1 at the end of 2021, there are plenty of question marks over Red Bull's next move. Given the acrimonious split from Renault in 2015 (which led it to running rebranded TAG-Heuer engines when it was unable to find another supplier) remains fresh in the memory, surely a lot of humble pie would have to be eaten before resurrecting that agreement.

Renault boss Cyril Abiteboul revealed a "neutral" meeting took place between new CEO Luca de Meo, Horner and Marko at the Nurburgring, which Horner was quick to label as "due diligence".

Mercedes has already said 'No way Jose' and Ferrari is not looking to be a good bet either. Maybe taking over the Honda project, as suggested by Marko, will be the best if most expensive solution and, as an engine supplier, it would also be able to equip the AlphaTauri sister team too.

Perhaps Abiteboul was right after all when he said that Red Bull had "missed a trick" in being independent from its engine supplier and that the two need to be integrated so that it can play Mercedes at its own game...