Why Hulkenberg's Red Bull chance is out of his hands

When Nico Hulkenberg walked out of the paddock at last year's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, he was surrounded by reflections of a Formula 1 career that had not fully delivered on the opportunities that had come its way.

For all the brilliance he showed on his way to the top, Hulkenberg's time at Williams, Force India, Sauber and Renault had failed to produce the kind of star results he perhaps deserved. Yes, there had been that brilliant pole position for Williams at the end of his rookie campaign in 2010 in Brazil, but a look back over Hulkenberg's career pointed more to the moments that had got away from him.

There had been that Hockenheim exit last year which played a key role in Renault's decision to replace him with Esteban Ocon this year. Plus, of course, that stand out drama of Brazil 2012 when he crashed out while fighting Lewis Hamilton for the lead.

Indeed, speaking at the Yas Marina circuit last season, Hulkenberg admitted his "heart was bleeding" when he had watched a replay of that race a few days beforehand.

"Yeah, that was the day," he said. "I mean, before the safety car I was leading by 50 seconds. So that was a special race, a special day, a very young Hulk. That was one of the special drives from the history books."

Asked if he felt that victory that day could have changed the dynamic of his career, Hulkenberg did not disagree: "Maybe possibly, but it's always difficult to tell what would have happened in that situation. I don't know."

The Abu Dhabi reflections have long gone though, and right now all the talk of Hulkenberg is about his future. He is at the centre of a fascinating subplot where events almost totally outside of his control have given him a sniff of a prime Red Bull seat.

Had Sergio Perez not been unlucky to catch coronavirus on the eve of the British Grand Prix, and had Lance Stroll not been taken unwell on the Friday night of the Eifel GP, then Hulkenberg may well have just disappeared from F1's radar.

Instead, their absences gave Hulkenberg the opportunity to knuckle down and grab the unexpected opportunities that came knocking. Where a few months ago Hulkenberg's only talks with Red Bull were about becoming a TV pundit on its Servus channel, now he is an option for a 2021 race seat.

Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko's comments to German TV this week are perhaps the first time Red Bull has publicly been so open to the idea of getting an outsider in. And interestingly, when you trace where the chance has come from, it's not just down to what Hulkenberg has done in the cockpit. For 2020 has also thrown him some other good news too, because the strong performance of others has put his own speed into perspective.

For all the pros behind a team like Red Bull taking Hulkenberg, the reality is that his ultimate fate now rests on what Alex Albon can deliver in the next few races. So far this year, Red Bull has been patient and encouraging of Albon's performances

Most notable of all is the way Daniel Ricciardo has hit a purple patch at Renault. The Australian's podium finish last weekend at Nurburgring, his contribution to driving the Enstone team forward and the way he has put Ocon in the shade, has brought a new appreciation for just how good he is.

And that means the way in which Hulkenberg kept Ricciardo on his toes last year can now be given some fresh context. Sure, Ricciardo edged Hulkenberg over the course of the campaign, but there was certainly no gulf between them. It's no surprise then Red Bull will have been doing the calculations of Hulk vs Ricciardo and then Ricciardo vs Verstappen.

Referencing considerations for taking an experienced driver like Perez or Hulkenberg, Marko said: "The question is how far away they would be from Max? We have comparisons with [Daniel] Ricciardo and we can draw conclusions about where the drivers stand. I don't think that anyone would get closer than three tenths."

If that is the benchmark Red Bull is looking for now as a team-mate to Verstappen, then you would have to say that pace-wise Hulkenberg certainly seems capable of getting there.

Beyond Hulkenberg's on-track performance, it was fascinating to hear last weekend too about the scale of the behind the scenes influence that he has had at Racing Point this year, even though he has only been a stand-in. Having been drafted in for the two Silverstone races, he was instantly pointing and pushing the team in directions they needed to go with the car. And that input helped fuel Racing Point's most recent upgrades.

As the team's technical director Andy Green said: "Some of the developments that we put on the car were as a direct result of his feedback in Silverstone, which was really interesting. So his feedback after the race in Germany was very intriguing. He mentioned things that he had liked, changes in the car, and how we go about setting the car up. Plus the feel he gets from the car. And we made those changes after Silverstone.

"We were not expecting him ever to get back in the car again and drive it. But lo and behold, he does and we get the feedback about the developments we made on the car. So that was really interesting and really important."

But for all the pros behind a team like Red Bull taking Hulkenberg, the reality is that his ultimate fate now rests on what Alex Albon can deliver in the next few races. So far this year, Red Bull has been patient and encouraging of Albon's performances.

There has been no expectation of him coming in and muscling Verstappen aside, and a tremendous amount of understanding about the difficulties the Thai driver has faced thanks to the early season aero imbalances that the RB16 suffered from.

But, as the Red Bull increases its competitiveness and the need therefore for both its drivers also step up, the expectations on Albon's shoulders will increase.

And for all of Red Bull's noises about his performance at the Nurburgring last weekend having been 'sensible', things will change if it finds itself locked in a tighter constructors' championship battle, or it starts losing out on race wins because its strategic options are limited by only having one car up front fighting.

Even at the Nurburgring last weekend, had Albon been shadowing Verstappen behind Hamilton, then that could have offered Red Bull some options for some strategy rolling of the dice - knowing full well the race leader wouldn't be able to cover two cars behind him.

It was such a scenario at last year's Hungarian Grand Prix, when Verstappen was left exposed by not having a rear gunner, that proved to be the final straw for Pierre Gasly at the team. From what Marko has said, Albon now has until Turkey to prove whether or not he is the right man for Red Bull's future.

For Hulkenberg, it's now a waiting game as everything rests on what Albon does. One thing he can sure of though is that he's given his all at the opportunity that has come his way this year

With, in effect, three venues coming up that Verstappen has not raced in F1 before - Algarve, Imola and Istanbul Park - there is a more level playing field between Red Bull's two drivers to better gauge just where they stack up. Three races too will be a good amount of time to allow Albon to get fully on top of the upgrades Red Bull delivered last weekend and which appear to have moved the team closer to Mercedes too.

And if Albon doesn't deliver what Red Bull hopes for, would Hulkenberg really be at the top of the team's shortlist? Actually, yes.

Many people after his Monza victory would have suggested Gasly is the right man to be given another shot. But at every step along the way, Red Bull's management have been clear they feel the Frenchman's future is better served at AlphaTauri.

With the Faenza outfit moving from being a junior team to a sister team of Red Bull, and Gasly performing so well in that environment, he seems a better fit there to drive that outfit forward.

In Hulkenberg, then, Red Bull would have someone with the experience, the speed, the feedback, the profile and the lack of politics to suit it well. He is a known quantity, plus he and Verstappen get on well and would make a strong combination.

Sure, there would be some humble pie eaten about Red Bull having spent such a fortune on its young driver programme to still have to go outside of its ranks. But this is F1, needs must and more important for the main team is having two cars that it knows can be battling up front together.

For Hulkenberg, it's now a waiting game as everything rests on what Albon does. One thing he can sure of though is that he's given his all at the opportunity that has come his way this year.

And for the next few weeks at least, the German will feel he has never have been closer, nor perhaps so far away, from the race-winning car he has been chasing his entire career.