Is it now or never for Russell in hunt for F1 title?

Now that the grands prix of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will at least not take place in April, let us briefly turn back the clock to another time of crisis in which the country in the Gulf region was able to host two races. For one of those two - the Sakhir Grand Prix - a young George Russell was asked to step in as a replacement for Lewis Hamilton, who had tested positive for COVID.

Sergio Perez ultimately won that eventful race and, as Helmut Marko later revealed, in doing so secured his seat at Red Bull for the following year. The Austrian explained that Red Bull had previously been looking at drivers such as Nico Hülkenberg, but after his victory in the desert, Perez could no longer be ignored - aside from the commercial aspect, which was naturally appealing as well.

Russell should have taken his first F1 victory that day, were it not for an unfortunate pitstop and a late puncture that denied him the chance of winning. The disappointment was understandably immense, but Russell’s performance had underlined something he had already demonstrated during an impressive rookie season with Williams: that he would be one for the future within the Mercedes family.

After that, it was mainly his patience that was tested. By the time the promotion to the Brackley-based team finally came, Mercedes was facing difficult years in the ground-effect era, a regulation set that the team – as Toto Wolff openly admitted – never fully managed to master. Russell himself acknowledged at the end of last year that by this stage of his career he had expected to fight for the championship at least once, although the reasons for it not happening lay beyond his control.

Almost six years after his first outing for Mercedes in the top class, his time finally seems to have arrived.

But the situation now looks completely different from that one-off race with the team, in all possible ways. What began as a one-off has turned into a situation in which Russell must fill Hamilton’s shoes as the team leader. From the new kid on the block he has become the experienced reference point himself, now with another young talent, a rough diamond, alongside him.

Antonelli learns quickly, but difficult moments are inevitable

Russell is expected to beat his teenage team-mate, who is only in his second season, but Antonelli has already won two races in 2026

Photo by: Alex Bierens de Haan / Getty Images

That young talent has delivered more than mature performances over the past two race weekends and even leads the championship, although Wolff came with a clear message after Kimi Antonelli's first win in China, one he even delivered in Italian in his post-race media session: piede per terra – both feet on the ground. The team boss said it to prevent too much hype in Antonelli’s home country, and the immense pressure that potentially comes with it.

“You can kind of see the hype that is going to start now, especially in Italy. I can already see the headlines, world champion, Grande Kimi and whatever. And that's really not good, because those mistakes are going to come,” Wolff said. “He's just a kid, so it's too early to even think about a championship.”

Although that last remark may have been slightly too strong – because who does not think about the championship when you are one of only two drivers in the best car on the grid? But apart from that, Wolff does have a point. About Antonelli’s debut year he said that the team management sometimes watched his talent with deep admiration, but at other times was also tearing its hair out.

“Arguably, nobody would have predicted two years ago McLaren would have made this step. Lando did five years with them and had no fight either. So, you've just got to accept the fact that that is the nature of F1" George Russell

And precisely that won’t disappear within a single year. It is the natural development of any F1 driver and one that normally takes several seasons. That has been the case with Max Verstappen, and indeed, also with Russell. Last year he reached a new level of consistency that had not been there before. Antonelli will go through a similar process, one that does not necessarily involve crashes or rookie mistakes, but also minimising off-weekends in terms of pure pace.

Based on experience, it is logical to still point to Russell as the clear favourite – something the bookmakers also continue to do – although the opening race weekends have shown one thing: Antonelli’s development is happening quickly, perhaps even quicker than some anticipated. And for precisely that reason, this may be the year in which Russell has to deliver.

The similarities with Norris’ title-winning campaign

In a certain way, parallels can be drawn between Russell’s current situation and that of Lando Norris last year during his title-winning campaign. In both cases the British driver was the most experienced one within the team and the one who had been there for the longest time, with a young(er) talent alongside him who was learning quickly.

Norris overcame a much-improved Piastri to clinch his maiden title in 2025

Photo by: Zak Mauger / LAT Images via Getty Images

And in both cases there is little doubt in the paddock that Oscar Piastri and Antonelli respectively will become even better than they already are, which means the key lies in making use of the extra experience and making the difference through consistency.

Russell showed that consistency last year and must now try to reproduce it when the pressure of a title fight comes into play. Norris likewise made the difference in the second half of 2025 with more consistent performances than his team-mate. It was overshadowed by Verstappen’s remarkable comeback, but Norris showed good form after his mechanical DNF at Zandvoort – especially compared to Piastri, who struggled more in the low-grip conditions of Austin and Mexico.

As Andrea Stella rightly indicated, there is a good chance that Piastri learned from those experiences and will perform better this year in similar circumstances – although the regulations are completely different. Exactly the same applies to Antonelli: as Wolff explained, the 19-year-old learns quickly and is on a steep development curve. It is up to Russell to strike while the iron is hot, and the best opportunity to do so may well be this season – also because Mercedes’ rivals will make steps under the new ruleset, something that was already visible in Japan with McLaren.

Besides the experience advantage over his team-mate, there is another parallel between Russell and Norris. Both also went through more difficult periods with their team before being able to celebrate success. It is exactly what Russell referred to at the end of last season when Norris’ title was discussed:

“Arguably, nobody would have predicted two years ago McLaren would have made this step,” said Russell. “Lando did five years with them and had no fight either. So, you've just got to accept the fact that that is the nature of F1. That's always been the case. And you look at Michael Schumacher, he was in his fifth year with Ferrari, in his 30s, before he won a championship with them. I'm 27, so I've still got a bit of time on the side.”

It took blood, sweat and tears, but Norris managed to bring those elements together last year – experiencing the highs and lows with the team and using his extra experience over his team-mate – by narrowly securing the title.

If it is up to Russell, the final stages of this season can be slightly less dramatic, as long as the outcome is the same in the end. The 2026 season is his first real opportunity to win the biggest prize of all, but because of these factors it may also immediately be the year to strike for the Mercedes star who once convinced Wolff with a PowerPoint presentation.

Is this the year Russell must finally become world champion? Mercedes isn't expected to have such a large advantage for so long

Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images