As the new cars undertake their last serious tests before Bahrain, the truth is gradually dawning on team insiders. Everyone already knows pretty much where they'll be come the start of the season, even if the rest of us haven't yet seen the full picture, because we don't know what sort of test programmes people have been running, or what developments they still have up their sleeves.
For many drivers there will already be a sense of disappointment as they realise that the package isn't where it was supposed to be, that the big step they were promised hasn't really happened. Others are walking around with a smile on their face, aware that they are better off than they dared hope.
The latter category has to include Mark Webber. The Australian is a lot more optimistic now than at the end of last season, when he had every right to be a little nervous about his future. After all, Jenson Button thought he knew which way the wind was blowing, and had opted out of his Williams deal. Sir Frank was losing his title sponsor and the BMW engine deal, and was going to have to pay for his engines. To top it all the team was committed to what at the time seemed like a misguided move to Bridgestone.