Who will join Rossi at Yamaha?

In one way, everything has changed in the MotoGP silly season in the last month, since the US Grand Prix at Austin.

In another and perhaps more accurate way, nothing has actually changed.

It's now been a couple of weeks since Ducati confirmed its coup of signing Jorge Lorenzo from Yamaha for the 2017 and '18 seasons, and at Le Mans last Thursday, Moto2 rider Jonas Folger's graduation with the Tech3 satellite Yamaha team was announced.

Marc Marquez will stay with Honda and that Valentino Rossi is sticking with Yamaha was confirmed way back in March at Qatar, where Bradley Smith also sealed his factory KTM ride.

Given that early flurry of activity, the last month has almost felt like a strange holding pattern. A holding pattern that is largely the result of Maverick Vinales' indecision.

The 21-year-old faces what he has called the toughest decision of his young life. Does he stay with Suzuki, the emerging manufacturer that gave him his start in MotoGP? Or does he go to Yamaha to replace Lorenzo and test himself against Rossi, with the chance of challenging for wins and the title from the outset.

This is something Vinales has battled with for recent weeks, and while he wanted to have a decision made before he headed to France, he was still waking up each day leaning in a different direction, and spoke about writing lists of pros and cons.

"One day I wake up and I say, 'OK, here'," he told Autosport at Le Mans.

"Then on the other day I think again, I wake up and say, 'but maybe this one is better for me'. Still I need to understand where is my place."

It's easy to look at Vinales' situation and declare it obvious that he should go to Yamaha, having been its main target from the outset. How many opportunities would any young rider get to join the outfit that won all three titles last year, and has what is currently the best bike in MotoGP?

In the four races Vinales has finished so far this year, he has greeted the chequered flag 15.423 seconds, 12.315s, 16.772s and 14.177s after the leading Yamaha rider.

The M1 is the class of the field. Marquez is dragging the recalcitrant Honda to places it really shouldn't be. Falls are costing Ducati podium finishes, but the 2016 Desmosedici is still not quite the finished article, even if it looks very close. Suzuki is the third-best manufacturer, with Aprilia way off the pace with its very raw programme and KTM is still getting ready to join the party next year.

Yamaha clearly thinks Vinales would be a good fit on its bike and wants to recruit him. Team boss Lin Jarvis does not waste time or energy when it comes to these sorts of things, and has gone on the record in saying that Vinales is one of riders on its list.

It's no surprise. He won just his fourth world championship-level race at Le Mans in the 125cc class in 2011, then claimed the Moto3 title in '13. A single season in Moto2, not always a nice step for Moto3 graduates, ended with four wins and third in the championship.

Since stepping up to MotoGP last year with the returning Suzuki, Vinales has continued to shine. On the whole, he has had the better of more experienced and highly-regarded team-mate Aleix Espargaro this year, and has continued to get faster and manage races and situations better.

Starts have let him down a little bit this year, namely at Qatar from the front row of the grid, and he should have finished on the podium in Argentina when he fell while pressuring Rossi for second place. But it's hard to fault him for much else. He has raced well, and kept it on the island at Le Mans when many other riders were caught out by Michelin's front tyre. The reward was third, his and Suzuki's first podium together.

He seems like a calm and smart rider, who deals with the media - and fans and sponsors you would assume by extension - well. Vinales has been refreshingly open in discussing his 2017 thinking with journalists in the paddock. Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa, for example, have at times refused to discuss their futures, point blank.

So for Yamaha, Vinales would be a perfect fit alongside Rossi. So why wouldn't he accept their offer?

The prime reason looks to be his loyalty to Suzuki. The Japanese manufacturer gave him his break in MotoGP when few other doors were open. It has made major progress during the last 18 months, especially with its engine and adopting a seamless-shift gearbox over the winter, and the GSX-RR is now a genuinely competitive package. It does still lack rear grip and a smidge of power, and both riders were frustrated by difficulties getting the bike turned during qualifying at Le Mans.

Remember those deficits to the leading Yamaha rider in grands prix so far this year (between 12-16s)? In 2015, the corresponding numbers were 33.463s, 35.450s, 51.674s and 41.571s. So Suzuki and Vinales - in both of their second seasons - have found the best part of half-a-minute in grands prix in the last year.

Vinales will feel this and while the gaps get harder to close the smaller they become, he will know there is more to come and a big part of him will want to stay for the journey and reap the rewards.

Only Barry Sheene with two titles in the 1970s, Marco Lucchinelli and Franco Uncini in 1981 and 1982, Kevin Schwantz in 1993 and Kenny Roberts Jr in 2000 have won premier class world championships on a Suzuki. Admittedly the Yamaha list also only has six riders, but Rossi won four titles and another four men have taken three each; Kenny Roberts, Eddie Lawson, Wayne Rainey and Lorenzo.

Could staying be Vinales' chance to create history and help Suzuki return to the top of MotoGP, rather than simply (for want of a better term) winning on a proven package?

"It's interesting for Maverick," Rossi said, when asked what he made of the situation. "Suzuki is something more romantic, become like Kevin Schwantz, and try to remain with Suzuki. The bike has a good potential, but it's more difficult. Yamaha is stronger and is a great bike, so it's another type of a challenge."

There would appear to be a difference on the financial front, with Suzuki having upped its terms to above what Yamaha is prepared to pay in a bid to keep Vinales. But he has played down the significance of this in his decision-making process.

In Vinales' favour is the fact that when the contract merry-go-round starts again in two years, he will still only be 23. If he stays with Suzuki and its progress doesn't continue, he'd still be a strong contender for a factory Yamaha or Honda seat, assuming he doesn't get overhauled in the pecking order by the 'next Marquez' or even the 'next Vinales'.

A lot of talk at Le Mans was that Vinales would in fact decide to stay put, and that Yamaha had another pretty handy contender in mind: Pedrosa.

Having been with Honda his entire MotoGP career, this is Pedrosa's 11th season in orange. It has netted three runners' up positions in the championship and 28 grand prix victories, with his two at the end of last year after returning from injury showing he is far from a spent force.

Pedrosa was thought to be one of the riders who would enjoy Michelin's tyres and the smoother riding style they were tipped to favour. But that hasn't come to fruition and he has been one of the riders hurt the most by the shift towards stiffer construction rear tyres, based on safety concerns, unable to generate grip from rear exiting a corner (his diminutive frame not helping on this) and then giving away time under acceleration.

Jerez was particularly bad on this front, but a softer construction rear used at Le Mans offered some solace, and he was the only Honda man not to crash on the front tyre in the race. Honda's acceleration difficulties mean that its riders are having to try to make up time under braking, which isn't necessarily hurting Pedrosa, but the brilliance of Marquez is still masking the bike's deficiencies.

A move to the well-rounded Yamaha would seem likely to suit Pedrosa's style. Could it even be what he needs to take that elusive title? Perhaps, but there are still a lot of ifs in the equation, namely if Vinales will stay and if Pedrosa wants to leave Honda.

Vinales or Pedrosa would both be good outcomes for Yamaha. Rossi has said he'd be happy to work with them both, and title sponsor Movistar would be appeased by having a Spanish rider replacing Lorenzo. Although if Pedrosa joined Yamaha, having two 30-somethings as its riders could potentially leave it exposed at the end of the 2017-18 contract cycle.

But what happens if neither Vinales or Pedrosa want to leave? Does Yamaha have a Plan C?

Ducati is yet to make a decision on whether it keeps Andrea Iannone or Andrea Dovizioso in 2017 to partner Lorenzo. Both have their pros and cons, and a decision before its home race at Mugello in 10 days would not surprise. Either Iannone or Dovizioso, who has already been a Honda factory rider, would be far from the worst Yamaha could do.

But both are Italian, and if a Spanish rider is important, you start to look at the likes of one of the Espargaro brothers. Pol Espargaro, currently with the Tech3 Yamaha operation and doing good things this year, but who has never really featured in discussions about a factory ride.

Alex Rins claimed his second Moto2 win of the season at Le Mans and now leads the standings, and at just 20 has not locked in a move to MotoGP yet. If he goes on a tear from here, could he follow Lorenzo's path of stepping straight up from the intermediate class to a Yamaha factory ride alongside Rossi?

Yamaha will be hoping it does not have to look that far down the list, but the longer its second seat remains unaccounted for, the more it might have to.

We are not even halfway into the month of May, or a third of the way into the championship. But the frenetic nature of this very early silly season is showing no signs of slowing down just yet.