The Pre-GP Statistical Analysis: China

Memorable moment in the Chinese GP

2004 - Is that the seven-time world champion?

With the title already won, Michael Schumacher (Ferrari) endured a troublesome weekend: he spun off on his timed qualifying lap, and as a result he had to start from back of the grid. In the race he ran into the back of Christian Klien (Jaguar), and after a few laps he spun again. A tyre failure put Schumacher out of the race for good.

Out in front, Rubens Barrichello (Ferrari) had Kimi Raikkonen (McLaren) in his tail for the first part of the race, with the Finn unable to pass. McLaren then gambled, short-fuelling Kimi at the second stop in order to pass the Brazilian, but the strategy worked badly and the Finn lost second place to Jenson Button (BAR). So the win went to Barrichello, who was trouble-free for the entire last stint.

2005 - Is that the seven-time world champion, again?

Michael Schumacher started things badly right from the formation lap, when he went for the racing line at an incredibly low speed and was rammed by Christijan Albers (Minardi). During the race the German spun off behind the safety car and was again the main talking point of the Chinese GP for all the wrong reasons.

The fight for the lead was decided by Renault's clever strategy, using Giancarlo Fisichella to cover Alonso's lead, slowing down the charging McLarens of Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya, and the Spaniard ran all the race by himself.

2006 - Yes, that is the seven-time world champion

The tyre war between Michelin and Bridgestone produced some awkward situations in wet races in 2006, and China was one of those: when the track was wet, Michelin had and advantage; when it started to dry, Bridgestone was better.

And when it happens, the differences can be measured in seconds, so in the first part of the race, Alonso (Renault) stormed away into the distance. But then, when conditions changed, it was Michael Schumacher's turn to have the best from his tyres, reaching and passing the Spaniard.

In the final stages Alonso lost time in the pits, and despite being the fastest under the conditions, Schumacher was able to hold on to his lead, winning the race.

China personal scoreboard

Nick Heidfeld and Heikki Kovalainen © XPB/LAT

Fernando Alonso was the pole-sitter in the last two years, won in 2005, and came a close second last year.

Giancarlo Fisichella, together with Alonso, completed the full front row for Renault, qualifying second in 2005 and in 2006, however he counts only one podium finish, with a third place last year.

Felipe Massa never made it to the front row or to the podium in three attempts.

Kimi Raikkonen made it to the front row only in 2004 and was on the podium both in 2004 and 2005.

Jenson Button scored only a podium finish in 2004 (second).

Rubens Barrichello was the pole-sitter and won the race in 2004 and then never made it into the top five in the race. The win in Shanghai is the last one to date for the Brazilian.

Nick Heidfeld scored points only last year with a seventh place.

Jarno Trulli never made it into the points in China.

David Coulthard was always classified ninth in all his three participations.

Ferrari's best qualifying position in 2005 and 2006 was only a sixth place.

Renault recorded their 50th pole in China in 2006, the last one to date for the French team.

What to look for in China

Ferrari © XPB/LAT

• Ferrari are looking for their 200th win and their 600th podium place.

• Rubens Barrichello is going to start his 248th race, equalling Michael Schumacher at the second place on the all-time record. Then, Rubens will miss only 8 races to match the all-time leader Riccardo Patrese, with 256.

• If Rubens Barrichello completes at least 39 laps into the race, he will become the second driver of all times to have run at least 60,000 kilometers in the races. The only one so far is Michael Schumacher, who ended his career with 66,164 kms.

Lewis Hamilton's championship chances

Going into the Chinese race, Lewis Hamilton has a 12-point advantage over Fernando Alonso, and 15 over Kimi Raikkonen.

These are the combinations that will secure the Briton the title in Shanghai:

Hamilton   Alonso         Raikkonen
Winner     Any result     Any result
2nd        3rd or worse   Any result
3rd        4th or worse   Any result
4th        3rd or worse   Any result
5th        4th or worse   Any result
6th        5th or worse   2nd or worse
7th        6th or worse   2nd or worse
8th        7th or worse   3rd or worse
No score   8th or worse   3rd or worse

The above table takes into account only a scenario with 11 or more points' difference between Hamilton and his rivals, because if a 10-point difference is recorded after China, the situation will be calculated based on the number of wins, then the number of second places and so on, opening up many possibilities.

The shape of 2007

Even with a Japanese race full of drama and run in extremely difficult weather conditions, the shape of the season remains the same. A couple of additional noteworthy trends:

• 11 times out of 15 has the car with the best time in Friday practice eventually won the race.

• 2 times out of 15 did a non-Ferrari/McLaren driver score a second place in the race. It happened in Canada (Heidfeld) and Japan (Kovalainen), so the domination of first places by the two teams extends almost entirely on the second places. The podium places count speaks clearly: out of 45 podium places available so far, 22 went to McLaren, 18 to Ferrari and only five to the rest of the teams...