The 2007 Chinese GP Preview

Analysis

Shanghai is a technical, challenging circuit, with a couple of relatively long straights connected with a flowing series of corners. Like other Herman-Tilke designed circuits, it stretches the drivers as well as the cars, and offers opportunity for overtaking.

The challenge starts with the first corner, where the cars brake from near maximum speed for a long, tightening right hand corner. Another tough left hand corner further round the lap means that there is a huge load on the both the front tyres, ensuring they get a real workout.

Preventing the teams from simply adding downforce to minimise the wear problems, the back straight is about a kilometre long, and the start/finish is not much shorter, so a balance must be struck with drag in order to maintain outright speed on those straights.

With a significant chance of rain over the weekend, teams will have another compromise to consider - wet conditions require more ride height and downforce, but optimising down this route would make the cars vulnerable to being passed on the straight. It is worth noting that the track seemed to take a very long time to dry out last year, so if it is wet at any point, then a return to normal dry running is probably going to take a while.

Overtaking, whilst possible, is fairly tough here, with the corner ending the back straight as the main opportunity, so a good qualifying performance tends to be well rewarded on race day.

Flashback

In 2006, a wet qualifying session saw lots of mayhem on track in the early sessions, but ultimately illustrated the dominance of the Michelin, and particularly the Renault duo, seeing Alonso comfortably on pole ahead of Fisichella. The Hondas similarly looked strong, with Barrichello and Button filling the second row (sharing the same time). Schumacher split the McLaren pairing of Raikkonen and de la Rosa, with Heidfeld and Kubica following up in eighth and ninth.

On a wet track - though the rain had stopped - Alonso made a clean getaway in front of his teammate on race day; Fisichella meanwhile struggled to contain Raikkonen, who had passed both Hondas on the run down to the corner (but handed third back to Button on the first corner before passing in to turn 14). Schumacher meanwhile was pushing Barrichello, who was finally unable to contain the ever quicker Ferrari at turn 14 on lap eight.

He set about chasing down Button, passing on lap thirteen as the Honda driver struggled with tyre wear. Raikkonen passed Fisichella at about the same time for second, before pitting on lap 16. Unfortunately, his engine shut down two laps later... At the front, Alonso's day took a turn for the worse as he started to struggle with front tyre wear, taking a trip through the gravel on turn one.

Schumacher and Fisichella stopped on laps 21 and 23, staying on their wearing intermediates, but Alonso replaced his front tyres on his lap 22 stop, as the existing wear was a problem. They immediately grained, and he found himself running four seconds a lap slower than Fisichella and Schumacher - who had closed up by lap 28. Fisichella passed his teammate when the position became untenable, with Schumacher close behind.

Midfielders started their stopping for dry tyres around lap 24 - Kubica lasting two laps before returning for intermediates. Both Toyotas struggled on, with Ralf Schumacher suddenly starting to post competitive times, Alonso dived in for a new set of tyres on lap 35, but between a slow pitstop and trouble getting the tyres up to speed, he remained two seconds a lap slower than the leaders for several laps.

Fisichella stopped for dry tyres a lap after Schumacher, but despite coming back on track immediately in front of the Ferrari, slid wide on his cold tyres and let the car through on the inside.

Alonso suddenly found grip and really got in to gear, now two seconds a lap faster than Schumacher or Fisichella; eight fastest laps had him re-pass his teammate and set about chasing down the Ferrari. Rain started coming down, two laps from the end, boosting the Renault advantage, but he was still only able to get down to three seconds off the lead before the race ended. It was a solid win for Schumacher and Ferrari in adverse conditions.

Pos  Driver        Team                      Time
1.  M.Schumacher  Ferrari              (B)  1h37:32.747
2.  Alonso        Renault              (M)  +     3.121
3.  Fisichella    Renault              (M)  +    44.197
4.  Button        Honda                (M)  +  1:12.056
5.  de la Rosa    McLaren-Mercedes     (M)  +  1:17.177
6.  Barrichello   Honda                (M)  +  1:19.131
7.  Heidfeld      BMW-Sauber           (M)  +  1:31.979
8.  Webber        Williams-Cosworth    (B)  +  1:43.588

Fastest race lap: Alonso, 1:37.586

Qualifying best: Alonso, Q2, 1:43.951

Weather

The weekend is expected to be cloudy with light winds and temperatures up to about eighty degrees; however, there is a high chance of thunderstorms rolling through on Saturday and Sunday, with fairly high winds added to the race day mix.

Consequently, the teams will probably have to prepare for mixed wet/dry running in qualifying, and avoid running an aerodynamic set-up that is critical to cross winds if they are not to discover a sudden drop in performance on race day.

Strategy

In dry conditions, China is optimally a two-stop race, with little to be gained from running light enough for three stops, and limited reward for running a single stop. In the wet, a single stop approach offers more flexibility, particularly for those looking to make up places after a poor qualifying.

Conclusions

With Hamilton in a position to lock up the title this weekend, all eyes will be on the rookie, who needs only to beat his teammate and Raikkonen to seal the deal. The China circuit should offer a slight advantage to Ferrari this weekend, though McLaren should be competitive.

BMW-Sauber remain best of the rest, with Williams and Renault the most likely teams to pick up the remaining points. Should it be a wet weekend, as predicted, then another exciting and unpredictable race should ensue.

A Lap of Shanghai with Fernando Alonso

"Shanghai circuit is a very modern track; it's very wide with a lot of safety escape roads. Gravel traps don't really exist here; they are mainly asphalt run off areas which increases the safety. It is a very challenging track; especially Turns One, Three and Four. Turns One and Two are pretty high speed, you start in fifth gear, you downshift from seventh to fifth; you brake very gently and have to keep a lot of momentum through the corners.

"As you are going through here the circuit just gets tighter and slower. You then have to decelerate into Turn Three, which is a blind entry after a very long corner, so you really have to commit into it without knowing where the apex is. It helps a little that they put a post in the middle of the kerb which acts as an indicator and means we can be more precise on the entry.

"However the first sector is pretty difficult and it is important for a good lap, especially if you get to Turn Three and you get it right; the car has to just touch the kerb over it. The rest of the track is pretty straight forward, with a lot of heavy braking. You could have a go at someone if you have a clean exit coming out of Turn Four with good traction. You take Five completely flat easily and you brake hard into Six, which is a first gear corner.

"You downshift from fifth gear and if the car is good and you have good traction in Turn Four you can overtake in Turn Six. Turns Seven and Eight are very high speed. Turn Seven was flat last year in the dry, but even in the wet it was close to being flat. However it is very difficult to get to close to anyone here because of the downforce effect of following the car in front. I think Turn Seven should still be flat even with less grip from the harder Bridgestone Potenza tyres.

"Then we come to Turn Eight, which is a difficult corner. The car is normally very twitchy on the entry and it's a third gear corner. Turn Nine and Ten are not very difficult. At Turn Nine you downshift from fifth to third gear and the important thing really is to go flat on the throttle once you have turned into the apex and keep it flat into 10 without lifting.

"It is important not to lift here as between Turns 10 and 11 there is a short straight and the extra speed you gain on the exit of 10 allows you to get into Turn 11 with more top speed. This is a second gear corner and quite tricky, you have to go over the inside corner as much as you can. Turns 12 and 13 are both flat again, if you get them right.

"Front graining on the tyres is a big possibility in Shanghai because of all these high speed corners. There is a very long straight coming out of Turn 13, its 1.5km which makes it quite easy to overtake into Turn 14. This is a first gear corner with very heavy braking. This just leaves you one more corner, Turn 16, a 90 degree corner leading onto the pit straight.

"It is quite narrow here compared to the rest of the track. It's a third gear corner where you really have to put the power on the apex and try to get a very clean exit again to gain the maximum speed on the long pit straight."

Team by Team

Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso © LAT

McLaren Mercedes

It was an interesting weekend in Japan, where McLaren were comfortably fastest in qualifying and the race. Alonso spun out and crashed whilst Hamilton went on to win, despite Kubica running into him on the way. It put the rookie 12 points ahead of his teammate, and in a position to tie up the championship this weekend.

Poor reliability cost the team dearly last year, as Raikkonen retired whilst running strongly, but the car is in far more reliable form this year. The team will be expecting a strong challenge from Ferrari, who could have a slight edge at this race, but should be able to get at least one driver on the podium.

1. Fernando Alonso: with a 12-point deficit to his teammate, Alonso needs to beat him by at least two points to remain in touch. Alonso was very quick in China last year, though problems with tyre wear left him off the pace at a critical point, ceding the win to Schumacher. He should be formidable again, though the competition from Hamilton and the Ferrari duo ought to be tough.

2. Lewis Hamilton: able to secure the title by doing little more than beat his teammate, but with everything to lose by failing to finish, Hamilton ought to be playing a fairly conservative game this weekend. It remains to be seen quite how he approaches this race: considering the limited number of mistakes he has made, it would be no surprise to him approach the weekend flat out.

Objectives: Win.

Renault

The Japan weekend started badly for Renault, who qualified on the sixth row as they gambled on dry settings for the race. In the event, it was a wet race, but the drivers made the most of very heavy fuel loads to make progress, eventually finishing second and fifth.

A repeat performance in China would go down well - though producing it would require more adverse conditions to take advantage of, as a significant portion of the places gained came from others misfortunes. Last year, China represented a missed opportunity, as Renault's strategy saw Schumacher win, even after they locked out the front row in qualifying.

3. Giancarlo Fisichella: struggling to contain his less experienced rookie teammate, Fisichella has his work cut out if he is to retain a lead role within the team. Even if he can't get on a par in qualifying, he has to do more on race day. At least the technical Chinese circuit should let him bring his experience to bear...

4. Heikki Kovalainen: now well into his stride, Kovalainen's season now includes a podium finish - and whilst improving on that seems unlikely, with seven consecutive points finishes, he is clearly a candidate for another this weekend.

Objectives: Get both cars into Q3 and at least one in the points.

Felipe Massa © LAT

Ferrari

In Japan, having started on intermediate tyres and been order back to the pits for full wets whilst behind the safety car, the Ferrari duo were hugely disadvantaged when the race started, as it had effectively eliminated any chance of a race win. Raikkonen's race to the podium was an excellent salvage affair, keeping his championship hopes mathematically alive, but there is no denying it was a bad weekend for the team.

China should be an interesting weekend. Last year, Schumacher put on a brilliant display in the wet to come through and win on the unfavoured Bridgestone wet weather tyres and deny an otherwise dominant Renault a famous one-two. Clearly, this is a place where Ferrari are capable of putting together a challenge; they ought to be very competitive here.

Raikkonen showed an impressive turn of pace last year, until his McLaren let him down, and ought to be tough to beat.

5. Felipe Massa: having made a tactical pitstop to facilitate Raikkonen's progress in Japan, it is clear that his primary role is to enable his teammate in the quest for the drivers' championship. That means beating Hamilton - but not his teammate - if the opportunity presents itself.

6. Kimi Raikkonen: without even considering Alonso, in order to maintain a shot at beating Hamilton to the championship, Raikkonen needs to take home at least seven points more than the rookie - so even if he wins, he is out of the running if Hamilton finishes better than sixth. Clearly, nothing less than a win will do at this point.

Objectives: Finish one-two...

Honda

Japan did not go too well for Honda, despite Button qualifying on the third row: an opening lap collision put paid to that advantage, and the car simply doesn't have the pace to make up places from the back.

It was an interesting race for Honda in China last year, where their drivers set identical times in qualifying for the second row, before finishing sixth and seventh on race day. A year later, and the team will be setting their sights on less lofty goals: getting a car into Q3 and racing in the midfield will be a tough challenge.

It seems clear that the team should hope the predictions for rain are accurate; should it be wet, then their drivers will be able to make up for the deficiencies in the chassis, and the possibility is there to put together a standout weekend.

7. Jenson Button: blisteringly quick in the wet, though perhaps accident prone, Button might again make Q3 and score points in the event of another wet weekend.

8. Rubens Barrichello: always quick, Barrichello can be expected to make it to Q2 if the track is dry, though challenging for points would be a tough proposition. Nevertheless, the Brazilian will not be there just to make up numbers, and might surprise.

Objectives: Get at least one car into Q3 and fight for a points finish.

Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica © LAT

BMW Sauber

It is telling that both BMW drivers complained that the Japan race should not have been started, as they struggled to show their usual advantage. Kubica ran into Hamilton, earning a penalty that put him down the order, which set up a thrilling, aggressive fight for sixth against Massa.

Heidfeld was involved in an incident with Button early on, and fought hard with a damaged the car, which eventually stopped on the last laps, denying him his eighth consecutive points finish. All told, a bit of a missed opportunity for the team, who clearly showed plenty of pace.

The Chinese Grand Prix should be an interesting opportunity to make amends: last year, the team looked good in wet conditions, taking a fourth place for their troubles. Comfortably the third quickest outfit in the dry, they are not exactly slow in the wet this year either, so two decent points finishes are in order, provided the drivers can avoid mistakes and get their cars to the finish.

9. Nick Heidfeld: a strong performance last year bodes well for Heidfeld, who is well placed to push the leading outfits and challenge for a podium finish.

10. Robert Kubica: despite being considered a rising star, Kubica continues to be overshadowed by his experienced teammate; but China was a good race last year, barring a poorly judged gamble on an early change to dry tyres, so he could well better his teammate this time out.

Objectives: Get both cars in the top six in qualifying and the race.

Toyota

At their own circuit in front of a home crowd, Toyota must have been hoping for a far better weekend than the one they produced, which was characterised by difficult qualifying, indifferent racing and poor reliability. Whilst the conditions clearly did them no favours, it remains unclear why they were so outclassed on the day.

This is a bad sign, as they head to China - the scene of a very similar performance in wet conditions last year, though at least there was the Bridgestone wet weather tyre to blame on that occasion.

11. Ralf Schumacher: having announced his exit from the team, it is hard to see much changing for Schumacher this weekend: a capable racer on his day, they are few and far between, so there is a very real chance of another lacklustre weekend.

12. Jarno Trulli: having apparently set up the car for far drier conditions than those that actually transpired in Japan, perhaps Trulli will err in the other direction for the weekend ahead. Trulli tends to qualify well at technical circuits, so a return to the middle of the pack is possible if the team don't gamble badly on the weather.

Objectives: Get back on track - cars in Q3 and fighting for a top ten finish.

Mark Webber and David Coulthard © LAT

Red Bull Racing

It was a rollercoaster ride for the team in Japan, where they saw Webber running second behind the safety car, preparing to take a genuine shot at challenging for the lead, when Vettel crashed and took him out. Even then, they had a fourth place finish with Coulthard. Clearly, the car and team operate well in wet weather...

Last year in China, the team looked good, threatening to score points if there had not been an entanglement with Massa: prospects are pretty similar this year. If the conditions are dry, then they should be fighting for top ten finishes; but in inclement weather, both drivers have a shot at finishing in the points.

Considering Red Bull are only five points adrift of Williams in the constructors' championship, with two races remaining, every point counts: particularly with the prospect of a wet weekend ahead to shake up the order, a strong race here could make up that difference.

14. David Coulthard: still a little off the pace in qualifying, Coulthard will be looking for a strong Saturday if he is to maximise his chance scoring opportunity on race day - particularly if he is to defend his points lead over Webber.

15. Mark Webber: strong on qualifying, getting to Q3 on Saturday should set Webber up for a points finish - should his luck hold, and the car make it to the finish intact.

Objectives: Get at least one car to Q3 and finish in the points. Beat Williams.

Williams

Japan did little to aid the Williams cause, with both cars failing to make the finish. Rosberg's ten-place penalty for a replacement engine did little for his race day chances, whilst the sensor failure illustrates the team have still not eliminated their reliability gremlins.

Last year, the team put on a decent showing in China, rapidly getting dialled in before taking home a point on race day. There is every reason to expect the car and technical skills of the drivers to again suit the circuit, which bodes well for a points scoring opportunity. However, they will have to do better that last weekend in the event of rain, particularly as Red Bull are only five points behind in the championship.

16. Nico Rosberg: quick and consistent in the dry, Rosberg might have displayed a weakness in the wet in Japan, where he was off the pace at times - though under particularly trying circumstances. Regardless, he remains Williams' best bet for an improved tally: likely to qualify in the top ten, and finish in the points.

17. Alex Wurz: consistently disappointing in qualifying, Wurz usually has a lot to make up if he is to challenge for points on race day - but starting so far back increases the odds on a collision for even the best racer. Should he have a half way decent session on Saturday - which is possible, as he was very quick here in testing last year - then Wurz remains a contender for points, but is otherwise unlikely to make an impression.

Objectives: Make it to Q3 and score points. Beat Red Bull.

Sebastian Vettel © LAT

Toro Rosso

Japan was something of a mixed blessing for the team - on a wet track, they were outstanding, but a couple of driver errors proved expensive, costing a potential podium and double points finish. It was impressive to see the team running amongst the front-runners, and making it into Q3.

Last year, they had a fairly decent outing in China, and must be hoping for another wet weekend, which would offer the best chance for points. Though it seems likely that this time around, they'll be extra careful to steer clear of the Red Bull drivers on the race course.

18. Vitantonio Liuzzi: a time penalty for passing Sutil under yellow flags dropped Liuzzi out of the points - poor reward for the strong drive to eighth from the back of the grid. Quick in China a year ago, he must be looking forward to an opportunity to try again over the weekend ahead.

19. Sebastian Vettel: a terrific weekend in Japan was marred only by crashing into Webber whilst running third behind the safety car, earning a ten-spot grid penalty for the weekend ahead to boot. He will do well to overcome that handicap and threaten the points again...

Objectives: Get a car into Q3 again; fight for a point.

Spyker

A year ago, Spyker arrived in China with a new livery, a new owner, a contract for Ferrari engines and new test drivers... only to languish at the back and play second fiddle to Super Aguri.

It is an interesting the difference that a year makes. Although they are again changing hands, the focus has remained on making progress, which is being delivered with their new B-spec chassis. It has let them take the fight to the midfield: despite indifferent qualifying in Japan last weekend, they fought hard and came away with a point.

20. Sakon Yamamoto: after beating Trulli - despite starting last - in Japan, the Japanese has to be optimistic for the weekend ahead; as his experience improves, he is closing the gap to his teammate.

21. Adrian Sutil: apparently a demon in the wet, Sutil has to be looking for more of the same this weekend, though the new chassis apparently offers him enough opportunity that he can mix it up in the midfield regardless of the weather.

Objectives: get into Q2 and fight for top ten results.

Takuma Sato © LAT

Super Aguri

With the mayhem caused by rain in Japan, Super Aguri must being ruing a lost opportunity: Sato was unable to keep his tyres working effectively, and Davidson retired with a sensor failure.

A year ago, China was a highlight for the team; the wet race let them run against the midfield, though Sato was later disqualified for blocking. Given their difficulties last weekend, perhaps another wet weekend is not what they need - they have been showing better performance in the dry.

22. Takuma Sato: as the season has progressed, Sato has shown decreasing form, and is probably a good indicator of the team's development pace failing to match those ahead; however, he should be able to work well on this technical circuit, where his experience can be brought to bear.

23. Anthony Davidson: in recent races, Davidson has shown some excellent pace, particularly over single laps, where he usually shows Sato the way - and he might spring a surprise in any qualifying session.

Objectives: Make it to Q2 and fight the midfield for places.