Success and Succession

When Michael Schumacher won his maiden world drivers championship title in 1994, it was during a power transition at the head of the sport. The previous greats had all left F1 within the short span of a couple of years - Alain Prost and Nelson Piquet to retirement, Nigel Mansell to the US, Ayrton Senna as victim of the tragic 1994 accident at Imola.

At the time, it seemed as though nobody in the remaining field would go on to emulate Prost and Senna, let alone outstrip their stellar achievements. Yet Schumacher made full use of the ensuing power vacuum to entrench himself as the sport's leading talent, and to forge a career that not only eclipsed Prost's and Senna's success individually, but approximated the statistical success of their careers combined.

At the conclusion of the 2006 season, the retirement of Michael Schumacher will result in a similar power vacuum at the head of Formula One. Schumacher leaves the sport holding more race wins and championship titles than the rest of the field combined. His exit will open the door to a potentially dominant new talent. Is it thinkable, or even possible, that any driver among the current field could go on to replicate Schumacher's jaw-dropping benchmarks?

Greatness is hard to evaluate empirically, and the whole is often more than the sum of the parts. Still, there are characteristic key strengths that have served Schumacher to outstanding effect throughout his long career.

The two that go without saying are natural speed and complete commitment to success in F1. Added to that are Schumacher's tireless work ethic, his ability to drive around a flawed or difficult car, his superb all weather ability, his legendary attention to detail, his focus and concentration to turn in a series of qualifying laps where necessary and, controversially, his ability to convince the team to bet the farm on his ability and focus their efforts around him.

On the negative side, Schumacher was not the greatest championship chaser, and prone to driving errors under pressure. Any potential successor who could eliminate these shortfalls could, arguably, afford to lack some of Schumacher's strengths. And so to the candidates from among the current field...

The Blue Chip Prospects

In F1, possession is nine tenths of the law. A moderately talented driver already in possession of a top seat will invariably be in better shape than a star talent languishing in an uncompetitive team. In addition, proven winners have more leverage than untested potential. For these reasons, two crown princes have already distinguished themselves from the chasing pack.

Fernando Alonso

When the 2007 season starts, Alonso will be in a highly unusual position: he will be the only F1 champion in the field. Schumacher, too, enjoyed this status at the start of the 1995 season, and only relinquished it when Damon Hill eventually won the 1996 title. This isn't the only similarity between the two.

Both drivers hail from European countries that had enjoyed little F1 driving success before their arrival. Both won a GP in their second season in F1, both finished 4th in the championship in their third F1 season, and both went on to win their maiden titles the following year.

Both won their first championships under Flavio Briatore. In fact, if Alonso goes on to win the 2006 title then, like Schumacher, he will have won back to back titles under Briatore before accepting the challenge of moving to a highly-funded team that had gone through a lean spell in terms of championship success.

Alonso has one important advantage and a record that Schumacher can never break - the distinction of being the youngest ever champion at just 24 years of age. But, early career similarities aside, how do Alonso's strengths stack up against Schumacher's?

Like Schumacher, Alonso has the ability to drive around the limits of an imperfect car. Schumacher's 1994 Benetton was rated as an impossibly twitchy car. Alonso's Renault of 2005 had the opposite tendency - chronic understeer. Whether Alonso prefers the car to understeer to such a degree, or whether he's merely learnt to live with it (and be fast with it) is debatable. Either way, he has succeeded in a car that deviates from the classic definition of effective handling.

Prior to Hungary, Alonso's wet weather ability hadn't been tested fully in F1. His performance at a wet Hungaroring laid to rest any doubts about his skills in the wet. Varying his lines (just like a young Schumacher did) to find traction, the Spaniard tore through the field - including a bemused and hapless Schumacher. Rainclouds on racedays will not bother the reigning champion in the slightest.

In terms of physical conditioning, concentration and work ethic, Alonso may not draw attention to himself in the same way that Schumacher does. He may not look as fresh and unflustered in the post-race interviews. Yet he doesn't lack in these departments either.

He has twice encountered extreme and sustained late race pressure from Schumacher (Imola 2005 and Turkey 2006), without putting a wheel wrong in either case. His mental presence of mind to continually tweak the engine settings several times per lap at Turkey, in order to keep the Ferrari behind him, are testament to a driver who functions physically and mentally at 100 percent from the first lap to the chequered flag.

Perhaps the most difficult quality to evaluate is Alonso's potential to become a franchise driver in the same mould as Schumacher. Throughout his career, Schumacher was a package rather than an individual, with the constant support of technical director Ross Brawn and designer Rory Byrne both at Benetton and Ferrari. Alonso, by contrast, operates as an individual.

The two drivers also faced very different challenges. Schumacher went to a Ferrari team wracked by internal conflicts and a long history of failure, although he did get the team focus that he desired. Alonso will head to McLaren, who aren't in such a parlous position as Ferrari were, and have won championships more recently than Ferrari had. However, the operating principles at McLaren mitigate against a single star driver and the drivers' championship is not seen as vastly more important than the constructors'.

Both drivers are good for team morale. During the darkest days at Ferrari, Schumacher preferred to focus on the necessary work ahead, rather than the failure that he had just suffered. Alonso, likewise, has avoided the negativity of Schumacher eradicating his large championship lead, focusing instead on his optimism and confidence for the remaining races in the season.

One area in which Alonso holds a slight edge is his grace under pressure. Off the track, he may have become bitter about the qualifying penalty at Monza. On track, his performances (even under the pressure of Schumacher closing the championship gap) have been superb.

A dominant show in Hungary and hauling himself up into a podium position at Monza, both before technical problems rendered his efforts pointless, illustrate that Alonso's form has not suffered under pressure.

He still faces a daunting challenge from Schumacher for this year's title. If he prevails, there is no telling how it could boost Alonso's confidence, pitlane stature and belief in himself as the master of his own destiny. With the right car underneath him, those qualities alone could help to net him several more titles.

Kimi Raikkonen

Unlike Alonso and Schumacher, Raikkonen's first four seasons in F1 didn't result in a drivers' championship, but rather in a roller-coaster of opinion that swung from the sublime to the ridiculous.

Initially, it was reckoned (with some justification) that Raikkonen didn't have a sufficient apprenticeship in the junior formulae before entering F1. After a moderately successful debut season alongside Nick Heidfeld at Sauber, criticism mounted when many felt that Heidfeld should have been offered the plum McLaren seat ahead of the inexperienced Finn.

After a superbly-fought 2003 campaign, in which he came within an ace of pipping Michael Schumacher for the crown, Raikkonen had certainly vindicated McLaren's faith in him. However, he now faced criticism of a different kind. With just one win during the season, and a string of seven second place finishes, Raikkonen was dubbed a cruiser and a choker - a driver who could grind away at the opposition, but who lacked the speed and exciting style to be a dominant winner.

The 2005 season snuffed out those criticisms. Time and again, Raikkonen looked the fastest and most committed driver in the field, only for iffy McLaren reliability to let him down. It didn't matter that he lost the championship - he won the empathy of the fans, and a legitimate rival to Michael Schumacher was born.

If there is one area in which Raikkonen exceeds both Schumacher and Alonso, it is in the ferocity of his commitment to competitive flat-out racing. It was exemplified by his performance at Nurburgring in 2005. With the car being literally shaken to pieces by a badly flat-spotted right front tyre, Raikkonen pushed on undaunted at top speed until spectacular failure on the final lap.

His cocoon-like focus is both a blessing and a curse. A blessing in that nothing seems to rattle him, and a curse in that his considerable energy is introverted and self-absorbed.

At the Canadian Grand Prix, 2006, Raikkonen lost second place to Michael Schumacher by running wide at the hairpin. His reaction after the race, that it didn't matter because he wasn't going to win anyway, is a luxury that neither teams nor drivers can afford anymore.

In today's F1, championships are won and lost not necessarily on the number of race wins but on the times that a driver can turn a likely fifth position into a third, or snatch a point from a seemingly impossible situation. Alonso and Schumacher have both perfected this style of 'maximising every opportunity' racing. If Raikkonen is to fulfil his potential of joining them as champions, he will have to follow suit.

Close friend and fellow racer Toni Vilander has opined that Raikkonen will not be a constant visitor to Maranello, as Schumacher was. It reinforces the notion that Schumacher (and possibly Alonso) are franchise drivers, Raikkonen prefers to be a superfast and talented loner.

Nevertheless, Raikkonen is stepping into a prize drive at Ferrari. Even if he lacks Schumacher's team-building ethic, he could rack up impressive statistics if the Ferrari continues its current form into 2007.

Like Alonso, Raikkonen has no reason to fear rain. With the dryness of the past few seasons, it has been difficult to fully evaluate the leading drivers' wet weather skills. Raikkonen lacks a Spain 1996 (Schumacher) or a Hungary 2006 (Alonso) standout wet weather performance. But he's no slouch in the wet either.

At the Brazilian Grand Prix, 2003, Raikkonen and Williams' Juan Pablo Montoya were the class of the field in the wet early laps. A torrent from a storm drain crossed the Interlagos track at turn two, catching out many of the leading drivers - including Montoya and 'regenmeister' Michael Schumacher. Raikkonen not only survived, he seemed headed for certain victory before Alonso's crash and the resulting red flag handed Jordan's Giancarlo Fisichella an unexpected maiden win.

Raikkonen could have won two championship titles already, with a bit more speed in 2003 or better reliability in 2005. Schumacher and Alonso had no such problems, stitching up their maiden championships at the first legitimate opportunity. Unless Raikkonen starts winning straight out of the blocks at Ferrari, he may battle to make up the lost ground.

The Dark Horses

While none of the established drivers appear to be in a position to threaten Alonso or Raikkonen as the heir to Schumacher's title, two 2006 rookies have done enough to warrant close attention.

Nico Rosberg

Genetics isn't everything in racing talent, but it can help. Like his father Graham, Damon Hill succeeded in winning a world championship. Jacques Villeneuve went one better, securing the title that had evaded father Gilles before his fatal accident at Zolder in 1982. However, while both Hill and Villeneuve had the satisfaction of taking championships off Schumacher, neither posed a longer-term threat to the German's supremacy.

Nico Rosberg, son of 1982 world champion Keke, becomes the third 'racing son' to vie for Schumacher's crown. The 21 year old GP2 champion couldn't have asked for a better F1 debut, scoring points and recording the fastest race lap in Bahrain. He followed that up by qualifying third on the grid at the second Grand Prix in Malaysia, marginally ahead of highly rated teammate Mark Webber.

However, high-profile debuts in F1 often prove unsustainable. Jean Alesi also grabbed the world's attention early in his career by cheekily repassing Ayrton Senna after the Brazilian ace had stormed past him in the United States Grand Prix in 1990.

Alexander Wurz was another who impressed immediately in his 1997 three-race debut stint for Benetton, outqualifying the experienced Alesi twice and scoring a podium finish in just his third Grand Prix. Like Alesi, Wurz failed to sustain the momentum.

Rosberg, too, has found the going tougher as the season wore on. He has been routinely outqualified by Webber. Although he only lags the Australian by two points in the drivers' championship table, that picture would be very different if Webber's car hadn't broken down while running in third place at Monaco.

It would be unfair to dismiss Rosberg's prospects, based on the uncompetitive 2006 Williams. He has at times looked fast, confident and surprisingly composed for such a young driver. However, until he secures a more competitive drive, it will be impossible to rate whether he poses a threat to Alonso and Raikkonen.

Robert Kubica

Poland's first F1 driver drew attention purely by the manner in which he entered the sport, replacing former world champion Jacques Villeneuve at BMW and effectively ending the Canadian's F1 career. It was an entry that guaranteed close and critical scrutiny, particularly from the many fans angered by Villeneuve's dismissal. Yet Kubica has performed beyond expectations.

Kubica was paired with Nick Heidfeld, a generally under-rated driver who had been a good match for the raw Kimi Raikkonen at Sauber and Mark Webber at Williams. Yet even Heidfeld sat up and took note of Kubica's pace and promise. Former team owner and now BMW team shareholder Peter Sauber claims that Heidfeld's pace increased by half a second per lap following Kubica's arrival at BMW.

Right off the bat, Kubica outqualified Heidfeld on his debut at Hungary. In a wet and difficult race, the debutant struggled, finishing well behind Heidfeld in seventh place before being disqualified when his car was found to be underweight.

The next race, in Turkey, saw a poor performance by the BMWs. Although Kubica managed to finish ahead of Heidfeld, both were well out of the points. At Monza, Heidfeld qualified ahead but it was Kubica who impressed, passing his teammate shortly after the start and then waging a race-long battle against Ferrari's Felipe Massa.

Kubica's eventual third position was somewhat lucky (considering Alonso's retirement and Massa's puncture), but nevertheless a fine performance. Like Alex Wurz, Kubica had secured his first podium finish in just his third GP.

As with Rosberg, it is still way too early to evaluate Kubica's long-term championship potential. Neither of the rookies may be giving Alonso and Raikkonen sleepless nights yet, although both will have been noticed.

The Outsiders

F1 is nothing if not a great leveller. Some drivers, like Jan Magnussen and Takuma Sato, arrive with great expectations but fail to make it big in F1. Others, like Kimi Raikkonen and Jenson Button, spring seemingly from nowhere and appear eminently under-qualified, yet go on to secure long-term tenure in the most cut-throat and competitive racing arena.

Two young drivers have already commanded close attention before even entering F1. Will they fulfil their potential and be the 'next Schumacher', or will they be the latest in a long series of young hopefuls who failed to live up to the hype?

Heikki Kovalainen

Unlike Kimi Raikkonen, fellow Finn Heikki Kovalainen will not be an improbably inexperienced debutant when he joins Renault as a race driver for 2007. On the contrary, Kovalainen has taken longer to secure his F1 drive than main 2005 GP2 rivals Nico Rosberg and Scott Speed.

A World Series by Nissan champion and Rookie of the Year in both Formula Renault and British F3, Kovalainen has turned heads wherever he has raced. Beating Michael Schumacher in a Ferrari - albeit a 360 Modena - in the 2004 Race of Champions, didn't hurt his cause either.

Unlike Alonso, Raikkonen and Rosberg, Kovalainen has the significant advantage of moving straight into a top team in F1. Renault may have lost the edge to Ferrari, and may also be hauled in by McLaren or even BMW, but the 2007 Renault is likely to be good enough to showcase Kovalainen's remarkable skills. As a tester who has logged thousands of kilometres for Renault since 2004, Kovalainen will surely be familiar with the car and its characteristics.

Teammate Giancarlo Fisichella will provide a solid benchmark of Kovalainen's potential. Despite losing to Fernando Alonso at Renault, Fisichella has made a habit of outperforming his other teammates in F1. If Kovalainen can pip the Italian in his debut season, it will confirm his budding talent.

Lewis Hamilton

If Heikki Kovalainen's F1 prospects have been the subject of widespread speculation, it is mild compared to the expectations surrounding 2006 GP2 champion Lewis Hamilton. Signed at the age of 12 by McLaren, Hamilton has benefited from their support in achieving championship wins in Formula Renault, F3 Euroseries and, at his first attempt, in GP2.

British racing fans have not had a local F1 champion since Damon Hill's sole triumph in 1996, and Hamilton has clearly been earmarked as the driver to end that championship drought.

Like Kovalainen, Hamilton seems set to race for a top team, his long-term sponsors McLaren. However, it is unsure whether he will make his F1 debut in 2007, complete a rookie season for another team, or test for a year before racing for McLaren.

If he does become a full F1 racer in 2007, he will face the ultimate test in partnering Fernando Alonso. If Hamilton can survive that baptism of fire, he will be equipped to handle whatever F1 can throw at him.

2007 and Beyond

It is almost inevitable that the retirement of a legendary achiever like Michael Schumacher will leave a temporary but gaping hole in the sport's talent pool. The additional departures of Jacques Villeneuve and Juan Pablo Montoya during 2006 have resulted in a comprehensive shake-up and changing of the F1 guard.

The outlook, however, is far from glum. Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen are already set to fill the void created by Schumacher's departure and to recommence their keen rivalry from the 2005 championship.

If Robert Kubica and Nico Rosberg fulfil their potential and get the right drives, that could easily turn into a four-way scrap for supremacy. The youthful promise of Heikki Kovalainen and Lewis Hamilton merely adds to what is already a mouth-watering prospect.

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- The Autosport.com Team

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