Is the 2026 WRC title fight the most unpredictable in a generation?

Considering there have been six different winners from nine rounds, the 2026 World Rally Championship title race is anything but predictable with only five events left.

To put that statistic into context, the last time WRC had six winners from the first nine rounds was back in 2017 when Sebastien Ogier, Thierry Neuville, Ott Tanak, Jari-Matti Latvala, Kris Meeke and Esapekka Lappi all graced the top step of the podium.

That has now been repeated almost a decade later after Toyota’s Sami Pajari firmly threw his hat into the title race by taking a superb maiden win at Rally Estonia last weekend. It means all five Toyota drivers have scored at least one victory this year, while Neuville has put Hyundai on the board with victory in Portugal.

This unusual start to 2026 is reflected in the standings being incredibly condensed. Last year 105 points covered the top seven, while this season it is just 66.

At this stage it appears the champion will most likely come from the Toyota camp, such has been the Japanese brand’s dominance winning eight rounds, while only 47 points splits its quintet of drivers: Elfyn Evans, Takamoto Katsuta, Pajari, Ogier and Oliver Solberg.

Although mathematically speaking Hyundai’s Neuville and Adrien Fourmaux are not out of the title race with 175 points still up for grab, it will require a sensational second half the season on gravel to make up for the squad’s stunted start due to its deficiencies on asphalt.

However, it’s fair to say few would have predicted the way the season has panned out so far. 

How the WRC title race is stacking up after nine rounds

Evans is on course for his maiden title with a 25-point advantage

Photo by: Toyota Racing

All five Toyota drivers being locked in the title race has surprised deputy team principal Juha Kankkunen, and given the squad’s mantra to not employ team orders, the remaining chapters of this title fight could produce fireworks.  

“At least the team spirit is really good and we have done something right because all of our drivers have won something,” he told Autosport. “So I can be proud of the whole team with the work that they have done, and we will be hard to beat for the next rallies as well.

“They are free to fight. Whoever is the fastest one will win [the title]. It will be very close I'm sure.”

Each of the title contenders have endured campaigns with twists and turns that become even more interesting when you delve into the statistics.

Elfyn Evans

Evans arguably started 2026 as the title favourite after finishing runner-up last year for the fifth occasion. The Welshman’s chances on paper were even better after Ogier, who had denied him a title three times, announced plans last year to contest one fewer round in 2026. Although, it seems now that Ogier has a whiff of a record breaking 10th title, it could change.

Evans has again nevertheless led the way for the most part, topping the championship standings in seven of the nine rounds so far, helped by wins in Sweden and Japan. After last weekend his lead has increased from 11 to 25 points over team-mate Katsuta.  

Evans has become known as the 'nearly man'

Photo by: Toyota Racing

But leading the championship comes with that huge and frustrating disadvantage of opening the road, and on gravel rounds, it's a punishing position Evans has previously found. It is also reflected by his stage win tally being lower than three of his Toyota rivals.

However, the 37-year-old did succeed on the asphalt in Japan, whereas in Croatia he made a rare mistake and crashed from the lead. Evans has clearly made forward steps though opening the road on gravel, evidenced by a third in Portugal. While wet weather played its part this year, Evans finished sixth at the event 12 months ago from first on the road. Runs to fifth and sixth in Greece and Estonia respectively have warranted high praise from Ogier, arguably the king of opening the road.

"I have to say Elfyn and [co-driver] Scott [Martin] did a great job from first on the road in Estonia. It is rallies like this that win the championship. It is a tough job to open the road and 15 points from there is a strong result. Fair play," Oger, who was outscored by Evans in Estonia by one point, told Autosport.  

Interestingly, Evans avoided retirements throughout last year finishing no worse than seventh, but this year he has had to restart rallies twice, once in Croatia and in Kenya after a suspension failure. Despite missing out on top seven finishes at those events, he has accrued one point more compared to his total after nine rounds last year.

Where Evans has also been stronger this year is on Sundays, bagging four more bonus points than at this stage in 2025, and with a conversion rate of 53%. And if you remember, four points was exactly the margin he missed out on last year’s title.

“It [the lead] has increased but at the same time the pack is closer than ever. The reality is we knew this would happen. Estonia was a weekend where I felt I drove pretty well for a lot of it but I didn’t think the times were reflecting that,” said Evans.  

“A few have mentioned that Seb has been complimentary of my driving from first on the road. It was a tough job but we tried to do the best we could. It is positive [to hear] but it is also frustrating at the same time.”

Takamoto Katsuta - +25 points

A surprise contender for the title

Photo by: Toyota Racing

The Japanese driver has been among the revelations of the season, headlined by scoring an emotional maiden win at Safari Rally Kenya, which was followed up with a second triumph in Croatia after Neuville’s final stage crash. But arguably the drive that has best shown Katsuta’s development was his run to third, from second on the road in Greece.

Katsuta has always had the speed but it is consistency that's been lacking, which has most definitely been corrected this year. As the table below shows, 2026 is by far his best year to date having finished eight of the nine rounds inside the top 10, with four podium visits also his best tally to date. It would have been a perfect nine top 10s, only for a tyre delamination in Estonia last weekend.

Scoring 60 points more than his best total after nine rounds has hauled himself into the title frame picture, which nobody expected at the start of the season.  

How Katsuta’s form compares after nine rounds

Sami Pajari - +33 points

Like Katsuta, Pajari is the other revelation of the season. Last weekend’s domination to claim a maiden WRC win has proved the Finn is the real deal. The second half of 2025 offered a glimpse at this potential, courtesy of a maiden podium in Japan and a spell in the lead in Saudi Arabia, before a puncture ended that victory bid.

Pajari’s uplift in form has eclipsed that of Katsuta, certainly in the points department when compared to last year. Granted 2025 was Pajari’s first full-time campaign and labelled a ‘learning season’, the 24-year-old is a whopping 96 points better off this year. After racking up 12 stage wins in Estonia, Pajari is also third in the stage wins department.

After a disappointing retirement in Monte Carlo, Pajari has scored more podiums than any other driver with victory in Estonia being his sixth from nine rounds. This consistency and strike rate is exactly what is required to win championships. Now a proven winner, Pajari cannot be ignored and is most certainly a title contender if this form continues. However, improving his Super Sunday conversion rate, that is the worst of the Toyota quintet, will be crucial.

But that will come in time and with the belief ever stronger after the Estonia success, Pajari feels he’s firmly in the title race. “I think so, and maybe it's the moment that also someone else is starting to recognise it [that I’m a title contender],” said Pajari. “I cannot really think too much about it. I just try to do the best job I can, and that's exactly what we have done this season.”

Sebastien Ogier - +38 points

The reigning champion is searching for a record-extending 10th title

Photo by: Toyota Racing

The reigning world champion knew that replicating his stunning 2025, where he finished on the podium in 10 of the 11 events contested on his way to a ninth crown, would be difficult. And it has proved to be the case with the Frenchman 24 points worse off at this stage of the season compared to last year.

Granted, there was nothing he could do about an alternator failure that put him out of the victory hunt in Kenya back in March. While a puncture leading in Portugal on the final day also cost him 19 points, so in another reality Ogier could be sitting right on the coat tails of Evans right now in the championship.

Ogier now has a sniff of a record-breaking 10th world title and that is like a red rag to a bull. There is also every expectation he will increase his title chances by contesting 11 events again this year despite announcing a plan to previously only race 10 rounds. 

There are no question marks over his desire or speed. That was proved by a perfect 35 points-haul in Greece, - the only one scored to date. The 42-year-old is also second on the stage win tally while boasting an impressive Sunday points return from his seven events to date.

Last weekend in Estonia, Ogier faced a challenge of being third on the road at an event he had not driven for five years, yet he still delivered 14 points to keep his title bid healthy.  

“I think I am very close to the target I set  this weekend and if a few tenths had gone my way I would have been satisfied. I still think it is not a bad performance given I haven't been in Estonia for five years. I think my driving was not bad," said Ogier.

Oliver Solberg - +47 points

Solberg has learned some harsh lessons in this title fight

Photo by: Toyota Racing

After scoring a stunning debut win at Estonia last year, Oliver Solberg emerged as an immediate title contender in the eyes of many following the announcement that he had secured a full-time seat at Toyota this year. Title aspirations were then confirmed by a stunning win, beating Evans and Ogier in Monte Carlo.

But the rapid Swede should be higher in the championship standings, and could well be leading it right now had he avoided costly errors in Croatia, Canary Islands, Japan and Greece. The statistics show that Solberg is the fastest driver this season having racked up 46 stage wins, 11 more than nearest rival Ogier. The 24-year-old also boasts the best Super Sunday figures winning 58 of a possible 90 points, which again proves that when it comes down to a short blast, Solberg is quicker than most.

Solberg has been accused of overpushing at times and he has now come to realise that a new approach is required to win the WRC title. That was presented in Estonia as Solberg knew he didn't have the feeling to catch winner Pajari, and instead of forcing it and increasing the risk of an error, he settled for second and claimed the maximum Sunday points.

There have been some harsh lessons to learn this year from crashing in the opening stage of Croatia, and while in the hunt for victory in the Canary Islands. But it does appear Solberg is leaning if Estonia proved anything which will be ominous for his Toytoa rivals.

“I know I can win rallies and I've shown many times I can fight at the top. But I think it's also very important to figure out that balance when fighting for a championship. Sometimes you win, sometimes you are on the podium," said Solkberg after finishing second

“I wish I had accepted that a little earlier in the season, but that's easy to say now, but still I'm very happy.”

Make no mistake if Solberg finds the perfect balance between speed, risk and results over the remaining five rounds, the title could well be his.  

Will Solberg be crowned champion come the Saudi finale in November?

Photo by: Toyota Racing