Why under-the-radar Red Bull should be feared

On the bare face of it, Red Bull has had a pretty quiet start to pre-season testing. While Mercedes and Ferrari have dominated the timesheets and lap counts, the squad most expect to be Mercedes' main Formula 1 rival in 2017 has lagged behind. Not far behind, but behind nonetheless.

Mercedes has been its usual relentless self - logging huge numbers of laps of Barcelona's Catalunya circuit, setting the outright pace, already experimenting with some of the W08's aerodynamic appendages, so confident in the reliability of its new engine that Valtteri Bottas and Lewis Hamilton have already completed full race simulations. The world champion team has managed 558 laps in total over four days of running, equivalent to more than eight Spanish Grands Prix.

Ferrari has been this week's surprise hit, its SF70H logging 468 laps, looking strong and stable while circulating, and lapping very close to Mercedes' ultimate pace despite generally running on harder compound tyres than its rival. The Scuderia has been accused of glory running in testing in recent years, but nevertheless looks to have produced a genuinely decent car to F1's new regulations.

Red Bull's numbers look nothing special by comparison. Only 294 laps logged through the week, never better than third fastest, around a second off Mercedes on soft tyres, using a car that has underwhelmed some in the paddock for lacking the aerodynamic details of its major rivals.

But Red Bull remains unmoved. Within the team there is an air of quiet confidence; a deeply held conviction that quietly going about its business, and trusting absolutely in the logic and historic prowess of its aerodynamic solutions, will ultimately pay off when F1 stops testing and starts going racing.

"As a team we've never, ever won the winter world championship," Red Bull team boss Christian Horner tells Autosport. "We prefer to have the niggly issues here than turn up in Melbourne having a bunch of issues.

"We're going about our own programme, we're learning, the car is behaving as expected, and gives us a good development path. The drivers seem happy and content with the car, so it's positive."

Red Bull's launch-spec RB13 lacked the "wow factor" of the some of aerodynamic features seen on the Mercedes W08 and Ferrari SF70H, according to Autosport's technical consultant Gary Anderson, who predicts Red Bull's rapidly reactive development team will nevertheless come up with more sophisticated solutions before the first race.

Red Bull's chief technical officer Adrian Newey has remarked on the complexity of Mercedes' car, and Ferrari's sidepod arrangement, as well as the high top wishbone sported by the W08 and the Toro Rosso STR12, which he compared to a Lotus 49. But he is not yet sure whether there is any merit in Red Bull following these concepts.

Horner says Red Bull is trying to follow its own path within these new aerodynamic regulations, and that the 'basic' lines of the RB13 are a deliberate direction, rather than some kind of attempt at hiding potential.

"There are some interesting conceptual differences between the route we've taken and the route Mercedes has - just different ways of peeling an apple basically," explains Horner, who remains hopeful the rulemakers will take a "sensible pill" and ban the ubiquitous sharkfins and "moustache-like Carey wings" that some cars have sprouted.

"There are different interpretations - particularly around the front suspension layout. It's going to be fascinating to see how that evolves. Some of the cars are looking a bit more complex than others. We've worked quite hard to keep a pretty clean car. Time will tell if that's going to bear fruit."

Assuming Red Bull does not drop the ball aerodynamically this year, and doesn't suffer from the FIA's attempt to clamp down on trick suspension designs, its chances of challenging Mercedes rest largely on the quality of Renault's work redesigning its engine for this season.

The power unit is "95% different" to the 2016 one, according to Renault's engine chief Remi Taffin, and Red Bull is expecting the initial version to deliver the 0.3 seconds per lap gain estimated by Renault Sport managing director Cyril Abiteboul over the winter. It expects the second iteration to deliver a similar amount of lap time on top.

Apart from suffering problems on the first morning, with a crank sensor then a faulty battery (issues Horner describes as "just annoying time-wasters"), Red Bull has been pleased with the basic specification Renault has delivered.

But pressure on Renault will ramp up during next week's second test, as attention shifts to extracting more performance from the cars - especially if Mercedes has found the extra 70bhp from its own new design that some in the paddock predict.

"They've definitely advanced the product," says Horner of Renault's winter work. "It's still early days, but I think the basis of what they now have has got plenty of development scope, and potential. Certainly the work they've put in over the winter has been impressive."

Toro Rosso has encountered far worse reliability than either Red Bull or the Renault works team have done this week - suffering an engine failure on day three, and failing to complete more than a single lap on the final day after more dramas. But technical director James Key echoes Horner's positive vibes on the performance side.

"They've definitely turned a huge corner," says Key, who reckons Renault's working processes have improved significantly since STR's woeful 2015 experiences with the French manufacturer.

"Our impressions are positive. Exactly where it stands in the order is impossible to say at this stage, but there's definitely a marked improvement from what we saw in the past, and last year as well.

"You can see that; it's real, it's not just a value coming out of a dyno. From a performance point of view, we're happy with what we're seeing so far."

Some in the paddock suspect Ferrari has been running light on fuel during this week's first test, which has amplified its performance, though others believe the encouraging early displays of pace are genuine. Red Bull reckons it is roughly level with Ferrari as things stand, and probably two or three tenths adrift of Mercedes.

"Mercedes are absolutely the favourites," reckons Horner. "They've been the dominant team the past three years.

"During the last three years we've won five races, Ferrari have won three, Mercedes have won nearly 60 races. So of course they're going to be the favourites.

"But the RB13 looks like the basis of a good car, and of course with immature regulations development is going to come thick and fast - event to event. It's going to be a development race really, from this point now all the way to Abu Dhabi.

"Mercedes look competitive, Ferrari look competitive - for us, we've had a sensible first week, and got some really good feedback from the car. We're very much focused on our own programme. Early days, but we're content with progress so far."

Mercedes and Ferrari may have dominated the testing headlines so far; Red Bull may have looked a little underwhelming in comparison.

Still, it remains the dark horse that simply cannot be discounted.