Why Red Bull's 'good problem' F1 driver dilemma is getting worse

As it stands, Red Bull has yet to decide how to order its Formula 1 drivers – and it will likely take a few more weeks before a press release is issued naming who will partner Max Verstappen at the senior team in 2026 and what the Racing Bulls duo will be. It’s a common habit in the F1 paddock for a team principal to declare he has ‘a good problem to have’ when there is more than one candidate for a seat – implying that any of the options are attractive.

Taking Verstappen out of the equation, it appears that Red Bull has four drivers for the three remaining seats – yet this situation doesn’t actually fit the “good problem” label, as none of the options looks particularly exciting.

As the deadline looms, with Helmut Marko confirming the decision is due “around” the Mexico GP in late October, an outline of Red Bull’s thinking has already taken shape: paddock rumour suggests that Isack Hadjar is poised for a promotion. German publication Auto Motor und Sport reported ahead of the Azerbaijan GP that the young Frenchman is set for a move to the senior team, having impressed his bosses in his rookie season with Racing Bulls – and Autosport sources confirm he is indeed considered the best candidate to partner Verstappen in 2026. The same was reported during the Baku weekend by Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf, close to the world champion’s camp.

It appears that, although no final decision has been made, Helmut Marko and co are close to thrusting Hadjar into F1’s most uncomfortable seat.

The thinking is somewhat understandable: Yuki Tsunoda has largely failed to deliver since his promotion and only after Baku did the Japanese driver lift himself from 19th place in the overall standings. For quite a few weeks the Red Bull driver was ahead of only the two Alpine drivers, Jack Doohan and Franco Colapinto, who are still the only ones to have not scored a single point this year. No further explanation is needed to reach a conclusion: Tsunoda isn’t exactly what a team with Red Bull’s ambitions needs.

Hadjar, meanwhile, delivered a podium finish with Racing Bulls – something neither the Japanese nor Liam Lawson managed to do with the senior squad, not even close.

Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls

Photo by: Simon Galloway / LAT Images via Getty Images

So, while Red Bull insists no decision on Tsunoda has been taken yet, the word in the paddock is that Yuki is no longer fighting to keep the Red Bull seat but ultimately battling to stay on the grid entirely – with a comeback to the Faenza-based team still on the cards.

This is not guaranteed, though, as Red Bull is also evaluating whether Arvid Lindblad is ready to step up to F1 following his Formula 2 campaign. The junior’s results suggest the answer is no, but F2 has recently become a tricky category for sound judgments, with both Oliver Bearman and Andrea Kimi Antonelli promoted to F1 despite clear struggles in the series.

It is believed Marko is convinced enough by Lindblad’s talent not to pay too much attention to his challenging F2 campaign – and there’s a good chance he will still be promoted to Racing Bulls next year, leaving either Tsunoda or Lawson without a place.

But what looks like a plan is far from being “a good problem” – and the closer the supposed deadline for the decision, the harder it gets to make the call, as all drivers in the equation fail to provide clear reference points. The weekend in Baku was a prime example.

Hadjar had a typical rookie weekend. While fast throughout, the Frenchman made two mistakes, in both qualifying and the race. The first came on his final attempt on Saturday, when he was on a lap that could even have earned him a front-row start – but a loss of eight tenths in the final corner dropped him to eighth overall. The next day, a mistake in the same corner cost him two positions. Forgivable for a rookie, but not ideal for someone edging close to a top-team promotion.

It was Lawson who impressed in Baku: qualifying third, being one of very few drivers to deliver a good lap in the chaotic closing stages of the session, and then finishing fifth in the race. A better demonstration that Lawson is not done with F1 is hard to imagine.

Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls Team, Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team

Photo by: Clive Rose / Getty Images

Tsunoda, at the same time, delivered a first sample of what he could potentially offer Red Bull in the future. Finishing sixth isn’t exactly a stellar performance, but it was also one of the first weekends he had the same material as Verstappen. And even if it’s still not what is required from a top driver, at least Tsunoda is starting to show signs of promise.

It is in that context which Lindblad’s F2 performances may still come into play. The Red Bull junior scored just 30 points across the last four weekends – and there’s little he can do to make up for it in time for Red Bull’s decision, as the next round of the championship will take place in Qatar in late November. The Anglo-Swedish driver has made a good impression on the simulator, but there’s no evidence he represents a better option than any of the other drivers. Another season in F2 would definitely not hurt.

While paddock rumours suggest Lindblad will still get his promotion – and the main question that remains is which driver he would partner – the situation is far from clear-cut. Red Bull is known for making aggressive and quick calls, especially when it comes to drivers, so until a final decision is made all options are on the table, including not making any changes at all. Some stability after a rather chaotic two years on that front would make sense – especially as next year offers enough other challenges.

Yet, in Red Bull’s case, that’s almost never an option.