Why Red Bull can win a Spanish GP that looked perfect for Ferrari

Max Verstappen departed the Australian Grand Prix having clocked a second unreliability-enforced retirement from his most recent three races. Yet he now arrives for round six of the campaign fresh from back-to-back victories as part of a major momentum swing. In doing so, the defending Formula 1 world champion has brutally dented Ferrari’s promise at the start of this new ground-effect era.

But there was an underlying sense that if the Scuderia could limit the damage in Saudi Arabia and Miami effectively, the characteristics of the tracks in Spain and Monaco might help turn the tide back in its favour. That theory, however, is looking considerably weaker after the end of play on Friday in Barcelona.

The Red Bull-branded Honda power unit has proved to have an immensely strong top end, but the Ferrari was the more responsive under initial acceleration. The long straights and high-speed sweeps of Jeddah and Miami were proof enough as Red Bull and Verstappen ran to the spoils in both races.

Charles Leclerc blew the competition away to utterly dominate at the tighter Albert Park. By that measure, a return to pre-season testing venue Barcelona, with its lower speeds and fiddlier final sector, appeared all set to be a happier hunting ground for the F1-75.

Over one lap, it still could be this weekend. Ferrari retains the badge of favourite heading into qualifying at least. The halo times in both Friday practice sessions were proof of that, as Leclerc topped the leaderboard in the two hour-long runs thanks to his soft tyre flying laps.

On the fastest available rubber this weekend, the red-walled C3 compound, he set the ultimate pace with a 1m19.670s achieved in FP2. That gave him a 0.117s advantage over George Russell, as the second Mercedes of seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton ran to third. Carlos Sainz was fourth and perhaps most notably, Verstappen was an under-the-radar fifth and 0.336s adrift.

Leclerc topped the Friday practice times but is concerned about his long run pace

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

With similarly hot and sunny conditions forecast for the qualifying session on Saturday, it appears as though Leclerc carries the shortest odds for pole position as he bids to land already his fourth of this fresh campaign. Critically though, the evidence from the race stint simulations on Friday provides a less rosy outlook for the grand prix.

Overall FP2 order

Verstappen headed out for the final time in FP2 for a medium tyre run. He delivered a 13-lap stint and none of them appeared to be significant outliers resulting from a costly error or substantial traffic. As a result, his remarkably consistent work returned an average time on the C2 compound of 1m26.073s. Leclerc, so far his most likely rival for the eventual crown, turned in 12 laps - one of which was anomalous - and posted a 1m26.687s average.

Worryingly for Leclerc, aside from the headline six tenth gap as per Autosport’s calculations, was that the tyre degradation woes that hurt him in Imola and Miami appeared to swiftly set in during his long run. Leclerc managed two laps in the 1m25s compared to Verstappen’s five. The Monegasque also suffered a much greater spread, culminating in him dipping well into the 1m27s for his final two tours as the tyres cried mercy. So much so, in fact, he held up Russell who was undertaking his own race stint simulation. Verstappen, by contrast, only once drifted above a 1m26.5s effort and that was on his final lap of the day.

A subdued Leclerc gave the following circumspect sitrep: “It looks very difficult for now. We will have to work very hard and hopefully find quite a bit of pace for tomorrow. Let’s say that it’s definitely the priority to work on [qualifying on pole] and to get better, because at the moment, we are just not strong on race pace.” He “didn’t quite have an explanation” for the ongoing struggles with degrading Pirellis.

The Barcelona circuit is hardly renowned for producing thrill-a-minute contests year after year. So perhaps the best bet now is qualifying. In other words, should Leclerc be able to seize pole and avoid the poor starts that hobbled him in the Imola sprint and Sainz in Miami, retaining track position into Turn 1 could provide a massive boost in his quest for a third win

Adding to the potential woe Ferrari might experience on Sunday, Autosport understands that Red Bull has even more in the tank. It is believed that Verstappen was running in a lower engine mode as the Dutch driver lost ground to Leclerc on the straights but was able to make up ground in the medium-speed corners. The RB18s also appeared to be clipping (red lights flashing to indicate it was harvesting electrical energy) out of Turns 6, 8 and 9 to further dint the straightline speed credentials.

Ferrari had looked promising in this area during FP1. It brought a higher-downforce rear wing design specifically to adapt to the Barcelona circuit “peculiarities”. Sainz and Leclerc ran different specifications, the Spaniard taking the new part initially, but still getting the measure of the Red Bulls in the speed traps to overturn arguably what is the Ferrari engine’s most obvious deficit so far.

If the rear wing tweak was tailored to Barcelona only, Verstappen’s early prowess arrives during a weekend when Ferrari lavished its biggest overall update so far on the F1-75. After a brief cameo in practice in Australia, finally the revised floor and rear corner configuration made their bows - both designed to ultimately extract greater performance. Red Bull was a little more subdued, sporting only a new floor to improve air flow on the upper surface.

So far Ferrari has been unable to find the relative performance step it hoped to deliver from its updates

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

The Scuderia has targeted low-speed corners as the area these new parts will most improve. And it might have reasonably expected to see greater returns from the off and close an opening gap to Red Bull. As Sainz noted, this upgrade came “after five races of development for Red Bull and zero for us”.

Expanding on the updates, he said: "I think they've definitely got potential, and we've seen some changes in the behaviour of the car, which is good when you bring upgrades, because you want to see some actual changes.

“At the same time, I think we didn't do the right steps going into FP2 and we made ourselves a bit slower. So, we know maybe which direction not to go, and we need to go back into a feeling that I had in FP1 that was better.

“I think [Barcelona] is where our car should be good. At the same time both the Merc and Red Bull felt very strong in the corners today. Everyone is quick this weekend. You can see we've been testing here, and you can see it's going to be a tighter weekend for all of us.”

The Barcelona circuit is hardly renowned for producing thrill-a-minute contests year after year. So perhaps the best bet now is qualifying. In other words, should Leclerc be able to seize pole and avoid the poor starts that hobbled him in the Imola sprint and Sainz in Miami, retaining track position into Turn 1 could provide a massive boost in his quest for a third win. That’s despite of the switch to ground-effect, which has always had the aim of making it easier for cars to follow one another and increase the prospect of them overtaking.

As Sainz says, there’s not been that radical a change to expect positions in Spain to be swapped ad nauseam. He said: “So far what we’ve seen this year is that the tracks which are very difficult to overtake, instead of being very difficult, it’s difficult. The tracks that are easy, it’s much easier. It’s like an offset. This is a very difficult track to overtake, so it’ll still be difficult, but a bit less difficult than last year.”

The more significant upgrade for Ferrari this weekend and the low-speed nature of the Barcelona track should have better suited the traits of the F1-75. But Verstappen is well placed to continue leading Red Bull’s recovery-turned-charge based on the findings from FP2.

While the season is still young, a stumble for the Prancing Horse in Spain would increase the pressure for it to fire back in Monaco before, as per the evidence so far in 2022, the top-end requirements of Azerbaijan and Canada might more naturally suit the RB18.

Verstappen long run pace remains ominous for Red Bull given his current form

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

If Ferrari’s protagonists were a touch crestfallen come Friday evening, Mercedes had cause to be optimistic. Granted, in Miami there had been a glimmer when Russell ran second in FP1 to Leclerc and then topped FP2. That came as the team had dialled out the porpoising phenomenon that has hurt the W13 so significantly thus far. But the bouncing returned with a vengeance in qualifying and then hurt in the race as Mercedes struggled to piece together which set-up changes truly settled down the car.

Second for Russell and third for Hamilton in FP2 in Spain, 0.117s and 0204s in arrears of Leclerc, has been interpreted by the team as a more tangible step forward. The eight-time constructors’ champion is still suffering with some porpoising through Turns 3 and 9 at Barcelona. But the drivers are the most satisfied they’ve been this year and while the limits of the car were still found, Mercedes felt the issue was more controlled than in Miami.

The Silver Arrows have generally settled into a distant third place in 2022. But those gains on a weekend when Ferrari might have hoped for more could give the famous Maranello concern a reason to look over its shoulder

The long-run pace was also cause for comfort. Russell was easily a match for Leclerc, his eight representative laps on the medium tyre averaged at 1m26.532s. And more was on the table, after he was held up by the Ferrari. Similarly, Hamilton’s seven useable laps were better still at 1m26.397s, and he too was delayed by passing Lance Stroll and Zhou Guanyu to further hurt his tyres when he eventually got by.

The Silver Arrows have generally settled into a distant third place in 2022. But those gains on a weekend when Ferrari might have hoped for more could give the famous Maranello concern a reason to look over its shoulder, rather than setting its sights firmly on vanquishing Verstappen and team-mate Sergio Perez.

Could Red Bull end up further ahead of Ferrari at the Spanish GP?

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images