Why Hamilton's Friday pace advantage is deceptive

Lewis Hamilton rates Austin as one of his three strongest circuits, the others being Silverstone and the Hungaroring. His record supports that, winning five out of the seven grands prix held at the Circuit of the Americas since the United States Grand Prix returned to the calendar in 2012.

A glance at Friday's timesheets is entirely in keeping with this, given Hamilton was fastest and three tenths of a second faster than Ferrari's Charles Leclerc.

Despite this, Ferrari's qualifying pace looks ominous enough and there's a chance Hamilton could still be looking at a Sunday afternoon where he's searching for track position thanks to a Saturday deficit. While Ferrari's speed-on-the-straight advantage won't be as pronounced here as in Mexico, it could still ultimately give it the edge.

Hamilton's advantage was founded largely on his pace in the middle sector of the lap, where he benefited from a superb tow from Robert Kubica's Williams on the back straight. That inadvertent assistance is reckoned by Mercedes to be worth 0.2-0.3s and has to be factored into any evaluation of the fastest times.

Single-lap pace

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m33.232s
2 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m33.533s
3 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m33.547s
4 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m34.509s
5 McLaren (Sainz), 1m34.667s
6 Racing Point (Stroll), 1m34.744s
7 Alfa Romeo (Giovinazzi), 1m34.839s
8 Renault (Ricciardo), 1m34.924s
9 Haas (Magnussen), 1m35.442s
10 Williams (Russell), 1m36.749s

Hamilton's nearest challenger in the middle sector was Max Verstappen, who was 0.388s slower with no tow, with the lead Ferrari of Sebastian Vettel 0.454s down. Neither Ferrari had a perfect run through this sector, so there's every chance things will be very different on Saturday.

Factoring in just the first and last sectors, Leclerc had a couple of tenths over Hamilton. Given the uncertainties of Friday that already exist, it's impossible to convincingly adjust for the circumstances and be confident of the conclusion, especially given neither Ferrari driver appeared to ace the middle sector, but it would be a surprise if that three-tenth margin is repeated come qualifying even if Mercedes has to be considered a pole threat given its pace on Friday.

Despite Hamilton's pace, this could match the pattern of the second half of the season and be all about whether Ferrari can hold track position if it does top qualifying

By comparison, Valtteri Bottas's pace in the middle sector was just over six tenths off Hamilton's. Given he was "losing big chunks of lap time in a straight line" and didn't have a tow, Bottas's pace was probably unrepresentative in a negative direction.

But it won't be until qualifying, when fuel loads and engine modes are at their most aggressive, that we get a definitive answer on whether Mercedes can challenge for pole or will give away a few tenths to Ferrari.

None of this means Mercedes is slow, far from it. In keeping with the pattern of the second half of the season, its race pace again looks formidable. Taking the first five laps of long runs, in order to equalise the distance, with anomalous slow laps removed, Hamilton had a two-tenth advantage over the Red Bull of Verstappen. Ferrari was a further tenth-and-a-half back.

Long-run pace (softs)

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m39.537s
2 Red Bull (Verstappen), 1m39.728s
3 Ferrari (Leclerc), 1m39.884s
4 Renault (Hulkenberg), 1m40.371s
5 McLaren (Sainz), 1m40.481s
6 Toro Rosso (Gasly), 1m40.616s
7 Racing Point (Stroll), 1m40.625s
8 Alfa Romeo (Raikkonen), 1m40.961s
9 Haas (Magnussen), 1m42.339s
10 Williams (Russell), 1m42.591s

Hamilton said the car was feeling "pretty decent" in practice and there's every chance this read on race pace will be accurate. Verstappen was largely positive despite being behind on outright pace, but hinted there was more time to find on the long runs.

"It wasn't bad," said Verstappen. "Of course we expected Ferrari and Mercedes to be ahead today but two or three tenths isn't bad when Lewis had a slipstream. It's positive, but we still have work to do. We're still a bit too slow on the long runs, we still have to find a bit of time."

Running on the other tyre compounds painted a far patchier picture, although Leclerc set a strong pace on the mediums towards the end of the session. On average, he was four tenths faster than Bottas's medium run, but it should be noted the Finn's run started earlier and therefore he may well have been carrying more fuel.

The midfield painted an intriguing picture, with Toro Rosso fastest on single-lap pace but Renault looking the strongest on the long runs - in particular on the little-used hard compound.

Nico Hulkenberg's pace over seven flying laps on the hards averaged out at 1m39.316s, which compares spectacularly well to the pace of the frontrunners on softs and mediums. That doesn't mean Renault is going to be fighting for victory, but it will be a serious force in the midfield battle and could match the potential scrap at the front by giving its drivers a slower Saturday car but a quicker Sunday one - although McLaren and Racing Point also showed good pace and should also be thereabouts.

An intriguing subplot is the battle at the back. Williams was well behind Haas on single-lap pace, but its race pace was closer. Should a Williams get ahead of a Haas or two, it might be possible to defeat it in a straight fight with a well-executed race.

To add to the challenge, the track has become progressively more bumpy to the point where Sergio Perez described it as "unacceptable". Even Hamilton, a fan of the challenge of bumps, suggested it was too extreme

But up at the front, despite Hamilton's pace, this could match the standard pattern of the second half of the season and be all about whether Ferrari can hold track position if it does manage to top qualifying.

Vettel, the slower of the two Ferrari drivers on Friday, is confident there are gains to be made but admitted race pace will again be its weaker suit.

"It was good to start with, that was positive," said Vettel. "We [later] tried some things and they didn't really pay off. But I think we have a good understanding. One lap, we should be there or thereabouts, in race trim we have a little bit more to do. We know that we have strengths and weaknesses, in quali trim we can mask the weaknesses a bit and race trim we can't."

Even if Hamilton can't sustain his Friday single-lap pace on Saturday, he's going to be a massive threat in the race. After all, he proved at this circuit's first race in 2012 that he can win from behind by capitalising on Vettel's Red Bull being briefly held up by traffic in the form of Narain Karthikeyan's HRT to take the lead.

Hamilton doesn't need to win in order to seal the title - in fact he could not score and would still be crowned should team-mate Bottas not win - but he'll be determined to clinch it in style with a victory after not doing so for the previous two crowns.

To add to the challenge, the circuit has become progressively more bumpy to the point where Sergio Perez described it as "totally unacceptable" and even Hamilton, a fan of the challenge of bumps, suggested it was a little too extreme. This could make nailing that perfect qualifying lap a little more difficult.

If that's the case, even if Mercedes might be giving a way a tenth or two on pure pace, there could be scope for a Hamilton special.

But whatever happens, in a season when only five out of 18 races have been won from pole position, the stage could be set for another gripping race. And you wouldn't bet against F1's pre-eminent team and driver emerging triumphant regardless of what happens in qualifying.