Why Ferrari would be mad not to take Hulkenberg

Nico Hulkenberg's options to remain in Formula 1 next season are limited. If he is forced out, it would be a premature end to his grand prix career, although cruelly fitting for one that has always promised more than it has delivered.

His former Renault team-mate Carlos Sainz Jr put Hulkenberg's prospect of finding a seat in simple but strong terms: "If it was about speed and talent, he should be on the F1 grid until whenever he wants."

Hulkenberg, dropped by Renault for 2020 and now snubbed by Haas too, knows it is about more than that. That's why he says his future is "to a big extent out of my control, out of my hands".

But it isn't out of Ferrari's. And the Italian giant should act to prolong Hulkenberg's F1 career, and help itself in the process.

This is not an appeal for Ferrari to jettison the troubled Sebastian Vettel and throw Hulkenberg in alongside Charles Leclerc. It is the case for Ferrari to recognise that Hulkenberg is a better bet for the seat it controls at Alfa Romeo, while strengthening its own position in the medium-term.

Hulkenberg was asked how he would market himself to a team. He replied: "A fast race driver, consistent. A driver has a lot of jobs in one, we are motivators, we are racers, we have to be fast, we have to push the team forward in terms of development.

"On the human side there's a lot of elements. And of course with 10 years I have a lot of experience on my side."

His sell was exactly what Alfa Romeo needs. Alfa should be fighting for fifth in the constructors' championship. Instead it is eighth, and at risk of dropping to ninth behind Ferrari's other customer team Haas.

That has significant financial consequences in terms of prize money, and the main reason is Antonio Giovinazzi.

Hulkenberg-to-Alfa is a compelling argument. So where does Ferrari come into this?

The Italian is a pleasant young man who is obviously very quick, but also error-prone. Not for nothing does he only have three points this season, while Kimi Raikkonen has 31. That's the worst ratio of team points of any driver line-up on the grid, save for the almost-permanently-last Williams team, where Robert Kubica has one point and George Russell none.

Alfa is crying out for a driver like Hulkenberg alongside Raikkonen. Given Hulkenberg has all-but-matched star signing Daniel Ricciardo's points haul at Renault this season, it does not require much imagination to think he could equal, or better, what Raikkonen has done at Alfa.

That would allow the team to fight for the championship position its car deserves. And make no mistake, that is Alfa's aim. The Sauber-run entry might have got cosier with Ferrari in recent years, but this is not a Red Bull/Toro Rosso alliance. It does not exist to use Ferrari engines, running a young driver, free of the consequences of poor performance.

Alfa also needs a contingency plan, because Raikkonen will not stick around forever. His current deal runs to the end of 2020. Maybe he'll continue, but if he left, Hulkenberg would mean the team is in safe hands.

Speculation continues to link Mick Schumacher, son of seven-time world champion Michael, to Alfa via his Ferrari link.

Would a Giovinazzi/Schumacher line-up be an effective on-track partnership? No.

But if Hulkenberg was the man alongside Schumacher, Alfa would - at the very least - be replicating its current veteran/rookie pairing. And that makes a lot more sense.

Hulkenberg presents Alfa an obvious short-term and medium-term benefit. Alfa would also be a good fit for Hulkenberg. Sure, it anchors him to a place in the F1 midfield, but in a well-backed, well-run team that has been on the rise, has close Ferrari links and a bright future.

It's also run by Frederic Vasseur, the man whose ART junior single-seater operation took Hulkenberg to titles in European Formula 3 and GP2. Plus Vasseur was the architect of Hulkenberg's Renault move in the first place when running that team.

Hulkenberg-to-Alfa is a compelling argument. So where does Ferrari come into this?

It has a bit of history with Hulkenberg, turning down a chance to hire him as a race driver for the works team alongside Fernando Alonso in 2014 in favour of Raikkonen. More importantly, though, the Alfa seat that Hulkenberg wants is one Ferrari controls.

Ferrari has a clear decision to make over the role it believes Giovinazzi has to play in its F1 plans in the coming years, especially with one eye over whether Vettel is going to walk away after 2020.

Giovinazzi's Alfa record this season is not that of a driver with a future racing for Ferrari in F1. So should Ferrari continue to keep him in a race seat elsewhere? Especially when he was so effective for Ferrari's works programme as a development driver behind the scenes in 2017 and '18?

Ferrari will likely gain more out of Giovinazzi back in that role than it would from him spending another season on the F1 grid, and Giovinazzi will not lose out long-term either.

If Ferrari sees no future for him as an F1 driver it is tough to envision anyone else taking him. But a career as a key player in Ferrari's development team with a GT racing programme on the side? That's not to be sniffed at.

The benefit Hulkenberg offers Ferrari also extends beyond making sure Alfa is in a good place. Ferrari has its own interests to look out for.

If Vettel leaves ahead of 2021, what will Ferrari do? By then, several top-line drivers could still be in play. Max Verstappen, Ricciardo, even Lewis Hamilton. So Ferrari will not be short of options.

But it generally favours conservatism and (an unspoken) preference for a number one/number two driver set-up. With Leclerc a potential team leader for years to come, would Ferrari destabilise that by throwing in a Verstappen? Ricciardo might be a less disruptive choice, with a more proven reputation than some alternatives. But Hulkenberg could represent a sensible option as well.

If Ferrari gets Hulkenberg on its books now, with the intention of him being an Alfa driver, he would at least be in the family. Then he becomes a very realistic option in the pool, and one Ferrari can assess at close-quarters.

Worst-case scenario, he never races for the Scuderia - but with his experience, and knowledge of the engine he'd gain at Alfa, alongside strengthening other ties, he could also be a superb development asset for Ferrari in the future. Not to mention a strong benchmark for Schumacher to learn from, if the current F2 driver features in Ferrari's long-term plans.

A sim role at Ferrari might even be an option to Hulkenberg right now. He doesn't need an Alfa stint to be a legitimate and effective Ferrari development driver, and most of Ferrari's current sim workers will have full-time racing programmes in 2020.

Perhaps Ferrari needs new blood. If so, and Giovinazzi keeps Ferrari's confidence to stay at Alfa for another year, Hulkenberg may again represent the best value as a development driver.

"I'll just let you do your job and you speculate. And I'll just keep my foot down, and we'll see what happens" Nico Hulkenberg

He could gamble on a year out of F1, strengthening ties and knowledge at Ferrari, with the option of returning in 2021, when a few more seats are available.

The options widen at this point. Alfa may well need to replace Raikkonen. Ferrari's other customer team Haas will have a seat up for grabs again - and Gunther Steiner admitted what a "close call" snubbing Hulkenberg was, one influenced by this year's car problems. Maybe, as outlined above, Hulkenberg could even eye a 2021 Ferrari seat.

A year out is not top priority for Hulkenberg, who had a similar experience as Force India's third driver back in 2011 having lost his Williams seat to Pastor Maldonado after his rookie year. He has no idea what another gap would do for him, professionally or personally.

"It's very different, that was right at the beginning of my career, that was after my first year," he admitted. "That's a very hypothetical question. Who knows if I'd want to come back then? Maybe I'll enjoy time off as well."

Hulkenberg would also not be drawn on the possibility when asked if he saw an Alfa move with Ferrari's blessing as a chance to get into the Ferrari environment.

"I think I'll just let you do your job and you speculate," he said. "And I'll just keep the pedal and my foot down, and we'll see what happens."

Perhaps the question was a little to close to home. But beyond the Ferrari-controlled Alfa Romeo seat, Hulkenberg's chances of staying in F1 are slim bordering on zero.

He'll either need a big slice of luck in the driver market, something that has not been forthcoming in the past, or he'll need to find a chunk of funding, which he admits is "not something that I can bring to a team". And in any case, Hulkenberg does not want to stay in F1 for the sake of it.

That means the vacant Williams seat alongside Russell is probably a non-starter. The team is at the back of the grid and in a rebuilding phase, which is more likely to appeal to a young driver than Hulkenberg. And it requires funding. So well-backed Formula 2 frontrunner Nicholas Latifi is in the pound seat there.

Where Hulkenberg could gamble is Red Bull. The team has yet to decide who will partner Verstappen next year, with Alex Albon in pole position given he is the current incumbent of that seat then Toro Rosso drivers Daniil Kvyat and Pierre Gasly next in line.

But team boss Christian Horner has admitted Red Bull could look outside its driver pool if none of that trio impress enough - and Hulkenberg, a proven performer with a good relationship with Verstappen, would represent the perfect stop-gap.

That would mean going up against Verstappen in Verstappen's back yard. "I couldn't say no to that car, so I guess you'd have to take it!" said Hulkenberg when that was put to him.

• Assessing Hulkenberg's F1 record
  
• Underachiever or wasted talent?
  

And he's absolutely right that it would also represent the biggest chance of his career and an opportunity to leap from the record of number of starts without a podium to fighting for race wins.

"It would be obviously a big challenge," Hulkenberg acknowledged. "As we know, Max is a killer and he's one of the fastest."

It would also be a huge long shot, representing Hulkenberg going all-in with his career chips. Red Bull or bust. And while his stellar junior single-seater record and the unfortunate circumstances around his F1 career means he probably deserves the opportunity, he deserves better than to need to take such a punt.

What Hulkenberg deserves more than anything in F1 is stability, a good wage, the opportunity to show his ability and, maybe, the glimmer of something more.

For that, he needs an Alfa Romeo seat. And for that, he needs Ferrari to do what it failed to six years ago.

It would be mad to shun him a second time.